Writing for the Cycle

1-13-12: Tebow Time!

2012-01-13T01:07:00.001-06:00

Hello again everybody...

To those of you I haven't spoken with in the last couple of weeks, I hope you have had and will continue to have a very Happy New Year!

And what better way to kick off 2012 here at “Writing for the Cycle” then by tackling perhaps the most polarizing athlete to come along in years, right?!

Okay, maybe some of you would prefer that I kick off the annum nuevo with lighter fare, but I can't help but think it would be far less interesting, so I'm going to go with my original idea anyway.

Tim Tebow - and perhaps more so the reaction *to* Tim Tebow - is simply one of the most fascinating things to happen to sports in ages. You might like him, you might hate him, but hardly anyone who has even a passing interest in football is ambivalent towards him.

Good, bad or ugly, people have an opinion. Those opinions range from the sincere and thoughtful to the crazy and half-cocked, with seemingly endless shades of gray in between.

I'm bewildered, I'm befuddled, I'm bemused, I'm amazed and ultimately I'm inspired by the range of reaction to him. And that's why I felt the need to write this column.

Which I'll get to...

Right after the quote!

“If I had not come and spoken to them, they would not be guilty of sin; but now they have no excuse for their sin.”
- John 15:22

Yes, I know. A Bible verse hasn't appeared here before. There are reasons for that which I may or may not get into as this goes along. We'll see. This is also the spot where I generally have some pithy or interesting explanation as to why I selected this quote. That's not going to happen right this moment either. Instead, you'll have to keep reading, and I promise it will connect to...

Tebow Time!

Confession #1: I didn't like Tim Tebow when he was a Florida Gator.

There were several reasons for this.

One, I have and continue to loathe Urban Meyer (then the head coach of the Florida Gators). I think he's smarmy, arrogant, inauthentic, intellectually dishonest and not a terribly strong role model for young athletes.

Having said that, I also have to admit that he's a hell of a football coach, and if he was winning those two National Championships at Wisconsin instead of Florida it's more than likely that I'd feel completely different about him.

(In fact, there are plenty of people who'd use the same string of adjectives - minus the championships - to describe the current head coach at Wisconsin, and I really couldn't argue their point with any real conviction.)

But he's not the coach of the Badgers, and in fact now coaches one of their biggest rivals, which only makes me all the more comfortable with the distaste I feel for him.

The bigger point being, I don't like Urban, and so any player that plays for him is bound to be tainted by that dislike.

But that's not the only reason I didn't like Tim when he was a Gator.

I also didn't like him because of the way he conducted himself. It wasn't that he was being a bad guy, or disrespecting the game the way that so many athletes do. It was all the histrionics, the rah-rah sideline antics and “this is the biggest game of your life” speeches that I found to be... overdone.

Look, when you're the number one rated team in the country and you're destroying Vanderbilt for the umpteenth time, it's not “the biggest game of your life”... it's just not. And yet he'd go through those same motions regardless, which just struck me as trying too hard to fulfill an image.

If there's one thing I can't stand - and let's be honest, there's WAY more than just one thing - it's disingenuous people. I don't like people who are trying to be something they're not. Whether it's the role they've been asked to play, or the role they think people want them to play, if it's not really who they are, I think that's fairly obvious and rather annoying.

Which leads me to Confession #2: I like Tim Tebow as a Denver Bronco.

Has he changed from his days at Florida? Not really.

He's still the same type of athlete. He's still the same type of guy. He still goes through the same kinds of histrionics on the sidelines that I didn't like when he was a Gator.

So what has changed? My perspective.

I began to like Tim when the backlash started. I dislike hype in a major way. If there's a vociferous reaction to something, I tend to go against that reaction by default. When the Harry Potter novels first started to really explode in popularity, I railed against them as over-hyped drivel.

(Of course, I did that not having read a single one of them, and once I got around to actually cracking the cover of the first book, I was hooked in less than three chapters. But that's a different story.)

The point is when people started railing on Tim as not having the skills to be a NFL quarterback, when they began accusing him of being too “in your face” with his faith and religion, I immediately reacted by thinking, “there's got to be something good there if people seem to hate it so much.”

Unconventional thinking perhaps, but welcome to the wonder of me!

The more I thought about it, however, the more I realized there was more to it than just that.

Now he's the underdog. He's not supposed to be able to compete at this level. He's not supposed to get his team into the playoffs. He's not supposed to have success. But he is doing exactly all of those things.

I like it when people work hard. I like it when they defy expectations. I like it when find success they weren't “supposed” to have, because of the hope it provides the rest of us.

I'm never going to be a professional athlete, but when I watch Tebow succeed, it reminds me that if you work hard and have faith in yourself, you can find some measure of success in whatever it is you choose to be. That measure may not be conventional in nature, but that doesn't mean it can't be satisfying.

I've also changed my tune on his antics. When he was at Florida, and I didn't watch him on a regular basis, I found it easy to jump to conclusions and make snap judgments about them. Now that I'm watching him more regularly and really trying to delve more deeply into who he really is, I'm finding that they're really rather harmless.

He's not showing up the opposition, he's not disrespecting the game, he's just living in the moment and expressing his passion and joy for not only the game, but for life in general. And that's something I've grown to appreciate.

So I admit it. I'm a Tebow fan. I've got a t-shirt. I'm going to watch the Broncos play the Patriots tomorrow night and root like crazy for Denver to pull off the upset.

Partially because I like him. And partially because I'd like to see him shove that success up the tailpipe of all of his haters.

Which leads me to Confession #3: I do and I don't understand the hate.

The reaction Tim Tebow engenders is so incredibly virulent that it quite literally takes me aback at times.

The most common reason you hear for the hate is: “He's not a 'good' quarterback, and people that are enjoying his success just don't understand football.”

Look, I get it. He's not a “great” quarterback. Heck, he might not even be a mediocre quarterback. But why would anybody hate him for that?

He's not allowed to be on a successful team if he's just mediocre? He should be punished for that?

Folks, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. Yes, it was because he played for a team with a all-time top 5 defense, and a seriously punishing running game. And yes, his job was basically just to not screw things up for the Ravens. But he still won a Super Bowl. That's factual, and it can never be taken away from him.

No, Tim Tebow isn't solely responsible for Denver's resurgence this year. He's probably not even *mostly* responsible for it.

(Though it's fair to point out that this was a team that was firmly in the “Suck for Luck” conversation before he became the starter, and which has since gone on to become a playoff-winning team after he became the starter. That's not 100% coincidental, people.)

But he IS part of it. And there's no reason for anyone to hold that against him. I just don't understand why people seem to.

The second reason you hear for the hate is: “He's too forward with his faith, he's cramming it down our throats, and he should just dial it back.”

Really?

Wearing a Biblical reference on your eyeblack is being “too forward”? Answering a question he's asked about why he's religious is “cramming it down our throats”? And just because religion isn't central to everyone's existence means that someone who has it as a core part of their being should “dial it back”?

Really?

On the contrary, if he didn't wear the eyeblack, if he didn't answer the questions, if he tried to “dial it back” a bit, he'd be going against the very things that make him who he is. And if I railed against disingenuous people before, then it only follows that I'd have to rip him if he tried to be anything other than who and what he is just because some people didn't like it.

You don't have to agree with his faith. His faith doesn't require you to share in it, for it to be real for him.

It does require him to celebrate it without shame. It does require him to be open and honest about it when asked. And why on earth would anybody “dial back” something that brings them so much joy and success?!

Which brings us to perhaps the most fascinating part of this hatred: the notion that God is favoring Tim Tebow and helping him win games due to Tim's faith just annoys the crap out of everybody.

The people that share Tim's faith are annoyed by it because to suggest that God cares about whether the Denver Broncos win or not demeans the larger issue of what God *does* care about. Those who believe will say that God delights in the fact that Tim is making the most of the gifts he's been given and in so doing, glorifying God. *That* is what matters to God, not whether the Broncos cover the spread or not.

The people who don't share Tim's faith are annoyed because they think that believers are manufacturing a way of interjecting the notion of God where they feel it has no business being discussed. They think that believers are stringing together a series of otherwise explicable coincidences in an effort to justify their faith to those who don't believe. So screw you, Tim Tebow, for providing a pretext for the faithful to shove it down their throats!

But even with all of those explanations, I don't think we've really hit on why he inspires such emotional reactions from people.

Here's why I think those reactions happen: Tim Tebow's a good guy. I mean a really good guy.

(Need evidence? Just read this.)

And when we're confronted with a really good guy who's having success, we can react in one of two ways.

We can admire him. We can appreciate his success and the hard work that led to it. And we can hold him up as a positive example and maybe even - yes, I'll say it - a role model.

We can look to him as someone who can inspire us to want to be better, more successful people who lead better lives.

Or we can go the other way.

(And this is where the quote from earlier, connects. So go back up and read it again. No worries, I'll wait.)

(Okay, you're back? Good. I'll continue.)

We can also look at a really good guy who's having success, and be reminded of the lack of goodness and success in our own lives. And we can hate him for it.

We can dwell on the mistakes and bad choices we've seen other athletes make - and that we ourselves have made - and we can choose to believe that Tim must be a fraud.

Nobody can be that good. We're not that good. Other athletes aren't that good. He can't be that good either, and we can resent him for even trying to be.

We can be bitter, caustic and cynical and hate him for “causing” us to feel those negative emotions.

After all, if he wasn't playing in the NFL, if he wasn't having success in the NFL, then we wouldn't be hearing about him all the time, and we would be having all of these bitter, caustic and cynical feelings, right?

Wrong.

Tim isn't “causing” any of that folks. If you're feeling that, it's coming from you. Not him. Take a good, long, healthy look in the mirror and try to deny that. I dare you. You can't. Not if you're truly honest with yourself.

Look, I'm not saying you have to be a fan of Tim Tebow. I'm not saying you even have to like Tim Tebow. All I'm saying is that when it comes to Tim, can we please have a rational discussion about what it is he's doing and why we're reacting to it the way we are?

The Star-Tribune's Patrick Reusse wrote a column the other day which in many ways inspired me to write this missive today.

In it he writes:

"My view of the Tebow phenomenon is there's much less religious bigotry involved with his critics than there is religious zealotry assisting in his astounding popularity."

In other words, you can't call me a bigot for disliking him, since the reasons I dislike him have everything to do with his level of play and nothing to do with his faith. But at the same time I get to call you a zealot because who could possibly like a guy who's this mediocre? It must be because you want him to justify your own kooky religious beliefs!

Sorry, Pat, but I think that's a gross over-simplification.

As I've tried to point out, just as there are a series of reasons that people choose to hate Tim Tebow, there are an equal number of very justifiable reasons to pull for the guy.

No, you don't have to like him. But I choose to, and there's simply nothing wrong with that.

If you want to hate him, if you want to go to written war against him either in the newspaper or on Twitter, that's your business. All I ask is that you be honest with yourself as to why you're doing it, and show the same respect to those of us who disagree as you'd ask us to show you.

After all, isn't that exactly what Tebow's been doing all along?

So there you have it. I'm a Tebow fan, and now maybe you have a better understanding of why. Hopefully, if nothing else, you have a reason to put a little more thought into it than you did before reading all of my blather here today!

When the muse will strike me next, who knows. But until it does, thanks for reading!

11-28-11: Wild and Vikings and Ballers, Oh My!

2011-11-28T12:12:00.001-06:00

Hello again everybody...

Yes, yes I'm back at it again.

I will warn you, however, not to assume any sort of pattern here. There's enough going on to do some quick notes and I had some time of a Sunday eve to write them up. When I'll write next is anybody's guess!

Expectations lowered? Excellent!

So on to today's missive...

Right after the quote!

“A man is not idle because he is absorbed in thought. There is a visible labor and an invisible labor.”
- Victor Hugo (1802-1885), French poet, playwright, novelist, essayist, visual artist, statesman, human rights activist, and exponent of the Romantic movement in France.

Next time you see me and it appears I'm idle, think again! I may just be invisibly laboring! Or something like that...

Wild and Vikings and Ballers, Oh My!

Remember when I talked about the Wild going through some adversity? Yeah, this is pretty much what I was talking about...

Minnesota dropped identical 5-2 stink-bombs against division rivals Edmonton and Calgary over the long holiday weekend.

Losing two games is no huge crime - even the best teams in hockey do that. Utterly failing to show up for two very winnable games? That's another matter entirely.

Let's start with Friday afternoon's loss to the Oilers. Nicklas Backstrom flat-out owns Edmonton. He's 20-2-1 with a 1.66 GAA and .938 SV% with 4 shutouts in his career against Edmonton... and he didn't start. There's a perfectly reasonable explanation for that - his wife had a kid on Wednesday and he had a couple of late and emotional nights leading up to that game.

Okay, so run Josh Harding out there, no problem, right? Well... Harding came into the game 2-4-1, 2.59 GAA, .915 SV% against Edmonton, and let's just say those numbers didn't get any better.

The Oilers jumped out to a 2-0 lead. The Wild battled back to tie it late in the second period. And then the wheels came off. Mistake after numb-skulled brainfart led to three straight Edmonton goals (the final one being an empty-netter that occurred mere seconds after Harding left the ice) and the game got out of reach.

What makes that loss even worse? The Wild had beaten Edmonton eight straight times prior to that, and 17 in a row at the Xcel Energy Center. Sure, you could say the Oilers were “due”, but trust me when I tell you that this loss was far more about the Wild failing to execute than it was about Edmonton benefiting from a statistical likelihood!

Now to Sunday. Surely the Wild would bounce back from a bad loss and clobber a team that was coming in on a three-game losing streak and hadn't scored in it's last 74:54 of game time, right?

Um, no, not so much.

This time at least, the Wild scored first. They then proceeded to give up three goals in a little over four minutes. Yes, they mixed another one in there for themselves, but 3-2 at the end of the first period was as close as they'd come for the rest of the game.

Terrible defensive play (don't be the least bit surprised if Justin Falk is a healthy scratch tonight against the Lightning) and suspect goaltending (Backstrom made the start, but was pulled less than halfway through the first period after giving up his third goal) meant that Calgary dominated puck possession and after grabbing the 3-2 lead, never really let Minnesota back into the game.

Not that the Wild seemed terribly interested in trying, mind you.

Head coach Mike Yeo said after the game, “The good news is, that's about as bad as we can play.” Not exactly “a bounce here or there and we could've won that game” type of analysis.

The capability of producing lackluster efforts like this is precisely why I told you that I refuse to buy into this team just yet.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not burying them either. They're still the 2-seed in the West at the moment, and two bad games is too small a sample-size to make any grand conclusions. Remember, they had two stinkers out west (San Jose & L.A.) and ripped off a five-game winning streak immediately after losing those two.

But over the long haul of a season, if you're going to be a true contender, you can't afford to have back-to-back games where you pull a complete no-show. As Wild captain Mikko Koivu repeatedly said after Sunday's game, “This can't happen again.”

Well put, Cap.

The Vikings suck, but not for Luck... Although with this organization, who the hell knows?!

After losing to the Atlanta Falcons 24-14 yesterday, the Vikings fell to 2-9 on the season, tying them with the St. Louis Rams for the worst record in the NFC, trailing only the 0-11 Indianapolis Colts for the worst record - and #1 overall draft pick - in the NFL.

The phrase “Suck for Luck” - referring to Stanford QB and presumptive #1 pick, Andrew Luck - has been tossed about for a lot of teams this season. But after 12 weeks, it's pretty clear that there are only three clubs truly in the running for that slot: Indianapolis, St. Louis, and your Minnesota Vikings.

What makes that picture intriguing is that all three of those clubs have “franchise” quarterbacks on their rosters. Indianapolis has an injured Peyton Manning, who would be difficult to deal if they decided to draft Luck and go in another direction. St. Louis has Sam Bradford whom they selected #1 overall in 2010. Combine his youth with the massive contract they signed him to and he's not going anywhere.

And then there's the Vikings.

Christian Ponder was selected 12th overall in the 2011 draft and paid a good deal of money for it. Not as prohibitively much as Bradford was, so it's within the realm of the possible that they could deal him and draft Luck, but it would be a tricky move at best.

It may be a moot point. I have trouble seeing the Colts win three of their last five. And I've got no clue what the tie-breaker would be if they won just two and finished in a tie with the Vikings and/or Rams.

But for long-time fans of the Vikings, wouldn't it make some form of karmic sense for Minnesota to wind up with the #1 pick in a year with a “can't miss” QB prospect the year after they draft a guy they call their “franchise” quarterback?!

You just can't make this stuff up.

The NBA has reached a labor deal, and there's going to be a basketball season after all... And I bet you're expecting me to say something along the lines of “Jimmy cracked corn and I don't care”.

But you'd be wrong.

I'll give you a moment to pick your collective jaws up off the floor.

Better? Good.

Yes folks, this is the year I give the NBA a chance. I was a big basketball fan as a kid. It was the one sport I played in any kind of organized fashion longer than any other. While my brother worshiped at the altar of Michael Jordan, I had a giant David Robinson poster on my wall.

But somewhere along the way, I lost interest. Or maybe the NBA changed how it marketed itself as a league and I fell outside their target demographic.

Whatever it was, I've been to exactly one Timberwolves game in the last 15 or so years, and it was just last season. To be honest, the only reason I went is because a former co-worker was in town from Vegas, and our mutual former colleague demanded that we go to see the Spurs play the Wolves.

All I can tell you about it is that the Wolves lost and their coach got tossed from the game. Not exactly the sort of mind-changing experience that would win me back.

So why, pray tell, am I giving it another shot?

Two reasons.

One, my employer recently acquired the radio rights to their broadcasts, and I can now go to the games under the guise of doing “work”. This is at least what I tell myself I'm doing while going to Wild games, Tweeting like a mad man, and then collecting a some post-game audio to be uploaded to the station's website.

It's far easier to try out a product when you're not paying to do it, you're guaranteed halfway decent seats, and you have access to the players and coaches after each game.

Two, there's actually reason to have a small amount of optimism for the upcoming Wolves season. #2 overall draft pick Derrick Williams will join the club, as will Spanish wunderkind Ricky Rubio.

I certainly wouldn't wager on the Wolves being a playoff team, but when you combine new talent, a new coach with a proven track record, and a 66-game schedule that becomes something of a crap-shoot, you never can tell what will happen!

Let's be honest though, if the Wolves win 25 of those games, fans should consider it a healthy step in the right direction!

Full details of the season are yet to come, but we do know that the league will kick things off with their traditional Christmas Day triple-header. So the Wolves should kick things off shortly thereafter.

Hmmm... anyone else smell a Running Game Commentary coming on?

That's going to wrap things up for today.

I'm back... well, whenever I'm back. You know the drill by now.

Until then, thanks for reading!

11-24-11: Not Buying In Just Yet

2011-11-24T02:36:00.002-06:00

Hello again everybody...

I know. You're surprised, right?

Can't say as I blame you. I told you many moons ago that while I wanted to get back to writing, it was going to be more about “when the spirit moved me” than “on a regular schedule”.

Sadly, plenty of other things grabbed my attention and I found myself with neither the time, nor the inclination to do much writing in recent days... weeks... aw hell, it's been 4 months. Who am I kidding?!

But that's changed... at least for today.

So on this day when we take a moment to give thanks, I'll say thank you to the sports muse for moving me once again. Who knows when I'll write next, but let's just enjoy this moment for what it is, shall we?

What moved me to pen this particular missive? I'm glad you asked. And I'll tell you...

Right after the quote!

“Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths being in and out of favor.”
Robert Frost (1874-1963), American Poet

We want a winner so badly here in Minnesota that we're willing to lose perspective (i.e. sight of the truth) to get one.

That's why you can say...

I'm Not Buying In Just Yet...

Fact: The Minnesota Wild are 13-5-3, which is good for 29 points.

Fact: That's the highest point total of any team in the NHL. More than Sidney Crosby's Penguins, more than the defending champion Bruins, more than the hated Chicago Blackhawks*, and even more than the Hammer's precious Detroit Red Wings.

(*- Can we all agree that their new name should be “The Hated Chicago Blackhawks”? I gave up “whom I hate” as relates to the Red Sox. I need something!)

Not A Fact: The Wild are the best team in the NHL

Yes, I said it. Even though they have more points than any other club, even though they're on their second 5-game winning streak of the season, even though they've won eight of their last 10 and 10 of their last 12, the Wild are not, I repeat not the best team in the league.

In fact, to me, their ceiling is maybe a 5th or 6th seed in the Western Conference.

Blasphemy, you say? How dare I besmirch one of the few winning teams we've had in Minnesota over the last two years?

That's just it, I'm not.

Trust me, I'm enjoying this run as much as any Wild fan is. I'm just doing so cautiously.

There can be no question that the team has bought in to what first-year head coach Mike Yeo is saying. I wouldn't dream of saying that they don't deserve the success they've had to this point in the season. They've worked hard and played well. No doubt.

I simply don't believe they can sustain the pace they've set, and I'm truly interested to see what happens to the confidence they've built when the bounces don't go their way for a week or two and adversity sets in.

Does the room stay together, stay cohesive, stay on-message? Or do tempers flare up, nerves get frayed and fingers get pointed?

We shall see.

And that's an important point, we SHALL see.

We're 21 games into an 82 game schedule, folks. There's a lot of hockey yet to be played. And a telling chunk of that hockey will be played against tough competition.

Consider this: in the Wild's current run of 10 wins in their last 12 games, the opponents whom they've beaten have a combined points percentage* of .531. The two teams they've lost two have a combined points percentage of .711.

(*- As Wild Media Relations Coordinator, Ryan Stanzel, pointed out to me just the other day, you can't use straight winning percentage in the NHL. If you get points for overtime losses, you've got to include those too.)

That's not an accident.

My go-to hockey guy, the Hammer (see previous link for his blog), likes to say the Wild are “beating the teams they need to beat”. He's 100% right. If you want to make the playoffs you need to take advantage of games against teams below you in the standings, and hope you win enough against the teams above you to stay in the race.

That's what the Wild are doing right now: beating the bad clubs, and stealing one here or there from the good clubs.

That should make them a playoff team, and give them an outside shot at home-ice in the first round... assuming they keep it up.

So why am I uncertain that they'll be able to do that?

Baseball's not the only game that deals with numbers, ladies and germs. Hockey may not embrace them the same way baseball has, but they're still out there, and they still mean something.

Let's look at the good numbers first. The Wild are #1 in the NHL in Goals-Against-Average (1.95). That starts with the goalies. Nicklas Backstrom and Josh Harding have been sensational between the pipes. I'd love it if they stayed at that pace, but history says they won't.

Backstrom has a career GAA of 2.40, and finished last year with a 2.66 in his 51 games. Harding's a career 2.58 and finished last year a 3.05 in his 25 games. Sure they could both have career years, but to finish half-a-goal and a full goal respectively better than their career averages? Eh, I don't think so.

The Wild are 12th in the NHL in Penalty Kill Percentage (83.8%). Goals are difficult to come by when you play Minnesota, so it's no surprise that even down a man, they're in the top half of the league in scoring defense.

PK is about goaltending and hard work. We know they goalies are good, and anyone who watches the club regularly knows that guys are willing to sacrifice their bodies and block shots. Just as important, the Wild have been playing smart when killing penalties. They rarely over-pursue the puck and don't generally let opposing forwards get loose in front of the net.

I'm far more optimistic that this can continue than I am about the hot streak by Backstrom and Harding. Systems generally don't slump the way individual players can.

Finally, the Wild are 5th in the league in 5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio (1.25). That sounds far more complicated than it is. Take the total number of goals you score when you're 5-on-5 (eliminating power play, short-handed, overtime and shootout goals) and divide that by the number of goals you give up when you're 5-on-5 and there's your ratio.

Why is that an important number? Because you spend more time in a hockey game 5-on-5 than you do in any other type of configuration. The bigger that ratio is, the more likely it is that you'll consistently win hockey games.

Why is that number something of an illusion for the Wild? I'll get to that in just one second...

First, we have to examine the bad numbers.

The Wild are 28th out of 30 teams in Goals Per Game (2.24). Not one of the other division leaders is outside of the top 10 in scoring. In fact, when you throw in the second place teams in each division only Edmonton (17th) and Dallas (19th) are outside of the top 10 in scoring. For heavens sake, even Columbus (the team with the fewest points in the league - 13) has a better scoring average (2.29) than the Wild!

The Wild are 24th in the league in Power Play % (13.8%). Even with the man advantage, the Wild aren't scoring many goals. Although they've at least managed to tie the woeful Blue Jackets in this statistical category... score!

And finally, the Wild are 28th in Shots Per Game (26.2). As Chelcie Ross's character in “Hoosiers” said, you can't score if you don't shoot! Okay, that line was a negative in that movie, but here, it's definitely applicable!

To put it simply, the Wild are winning despite their lackluster offense. And even with the additions of Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, there's no real reason to think their offense is suddenly going to blossom.

Remember, last season the Wild managed a G/G Average of just 2.48, a PP% of 18.2% and a S/G Average of 26.2. Those numbers look familiar? They should.

So let's go back to that 5-on-5 ratio I mentioned earlier. Sure the Wild are carrying a 5th-best 1.25 number right now. But that's because the denominator (Goals Against) is so ridiculously low. If the offense remains static, and that denominator starts creeping up to its historical average, then that ratio goes down in a hurry. Witness last-season's 26th-ranked number of 0.85.

Look folks, I want to believe in this club. I want to buy in. I respect Strib beat writer Michael Russo's opinion on hockey as much as anybody's and in his latest blog he flat-out said he's bought in. And lord knows it'd be nice to follow a winner around here for a change!

(I'm looking at you, rebuilding-whether-you-want-to-believe-it-or-not Minnesota Twins!)

But I can't just yet.

I like the aggressive style they're playing. I like the fact that the coach and players keep saying, “we're not there yet... we can get better”. And I honestly hope they do.

But I believe the goaltending's going to come back to earth. I believe the youth on the blue line is going to have their share of rocky games. And I'm not convinced this team's going to threaten any scoring records any time soon.

Combine that together, and I firmly believe there will be some troubling times ahead.

If the Wild can weather those stretches and keep the losing streaks to a minimum, then they can certainly make the playoffs and be a threat to make the second round.

If not? Well, let's break that scenario down if and when they get there.

(I have to try and maintain some form of optimism, right?!)

That's going to do it for today. Hope you enjoyed the return of the column (and here's to hoping it won't disappear for 4 months again!).

Oh, and one last hope... I hope you all have a happy, safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving!

(Insert Hammer's, "Or as they call it in Canada, 'Thursday'." joke here... oof.)

Until next time, thanks for reading!

7-6-11: Notes

2011-07-06T10:29:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Been a while, I know. I hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July. I spent a pleasant evening watching three different fireworks shows from the cozy confines of my deck. Not a bad way to spend the evening, and I didn't have to fight traffic!

So we're into the meat of July (just 10 shopping days left until the single greatest day of the calendar year!), and teams are making news all over the place.

What does that mean?

Yep... it's “Notes” time!

And we'll get to the notating...

Right after the quote!

“Statistics: the only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions.
- Evan Easar (1899 - 1995), American humorist

I've had a lot of verbal/text battles with my Brewers-fan friends since I published my picks for the 2011 All-Star team. We're all looking at the same numbers. My system didn't put him in as a starter. Milwaukee fans vehemently disagreed. In the end, he got voted in and I don't have a huge problem with that.

Which leads me to the first of today's...

Notes...

The All-Star rosters have been announced... and the fans nearly got it right.

In fact, there's only one position between the two leagues that I can point at and say, “no, no, no, you're WAY off there.”

That's the American League shortstop. I know Derek Jeter got two hits last night. I know that leaves him 4 short of 3000 and an automatic ticket to Cooperstown. I know he'll go down in Yankee lore as one of their all-time greats.

But he shouldn't be starting in the All Star Game. Not only should he not be starting, he shouldn't even be on the team.

I get the use of an All Star selection as a career achievement awards in very limited and specific situations (see: Ripken, Cal, in his retirement year), but I don't think this one qualifies. I'll congratulate Mr. Jeter when he reaches 3k as much as the next baseball fan. But when you're hitting .256/.320/.320, you don't make an All Star team. Sorry.

The only other pick that had me scratching my head a bit was Josh Hamilton in the AL outfield. He's put up some solid (although not career-high) offensive numbers, but he got DQ'd in my system because he hasn't played enough games. While most full-time starters are in the mid-60's for games played, he's in the mid-40's. Worse crimes have been committed in All Star balloting (see: Jeter, Derek), but he was the only other pick that didn't finish in the top five of my system, so I thought I'd point it out.

Like I said, Brewer fans got their knickers in a twist when I didn't pick Ryan Braun as a starter in the NL outfield. I'd love for them to tell me how to tweak my system to get him in, without getting rid of defensive numbers all together.

His below-average defensive stats have always held him back in my system. I even deliberately tweaked the math this year to down-play their importance a touch, and he still didn't get in.

Sorry folks, but I'm not taking defense out of the equation, and until his improves enough, he doesn't get my vote.

Outside of Jeter and Hamilton, every other player that got voted in ranked in my top five at their position. In fact, in the NL, every player ranked in the top two!

So well-done fans. I'll give you a B+ this year. That would easily be an A-, except for the Jeter nonsense. But still, a better result than I expected. Kudos!

Speaking of the All Star rosters...

Is it just me, or are the rest of you loving the stars that have been put on the jerseys and caps of players picked for the All Star game?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is something they just started this season, and I love it.

If you don't know what I'm talking about, you can click here to get something of an idea.

For players picked to participate in this year's All Star game, they've had two gold stars embroidered on the back of their jersey on either side of the MLB logo (pictured in the above link) and likewise on the back of their caps.

Like I said, I love it. It's small and unobtrusive, taking away nothing from the aesthetic pleasure of the baseball uniform. At the same time, it's a way of honoring the guys who've been picked to be on their respective league's squad.

As I understand it, they won't be a season-long addition. Instead, they'll only be around until the end of play on Sunday before the All Star break.

People love to kill MLB for some of the boneheaded decisions they make - and deservedly so - but I think they deserve kudos for this one. They got it 100% right.

Speaking of baseball...

The Twins are trying to become relevant this season... but they're going to face some difficult decisions at the end of the month.

After last night's action, the Twins are 38-46, 7-games out of first in the AL Central.

Nothing about those numbers is good, but considering how anemic the division has been this season, another Division Championship isn't out of the question.

That being said, the non-waiver trade deadline is on the 31st and the Twins are going to have to make some very tough calls.

Are you planning on bringing back Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer next year? Probably not. So wouldn't it make sense to try and move one of them for some young talent while you can?

Kubel just experienced a set-back in his attempt to rehab a foot injury, so the likelihood of him being available to trade isn't high.

That leaves Cuddyer. Michael's hitting .290/.359/.469 with 12 home runs and 35 RBI. Trust me, there are several teams out there looking for some pop that would be interested in putting Cuddy in their lineup every day.

But you're talking about a career-Twin. A “glue-guy”. Someone who's as important in the clubhouse as he is on the field. Someone who's been way out front with the Twins community efforts.

Dealing a guy like that won't be an easy decision, and my guess is the front office would have to be bowled over by an offer before they agreed to move him.

Other candidates to get moved? I think it's pretty clear that the Twins would love to part ways with Delmon Young at this point. He's also on a rehab assignment, but is far closer to coming back than Kubel is. Could he be moved? Possibly, but you'd be lucky to get 25-cents on the dollar given his struggles this season. Still, addition-by-subtraction IS a very real concept in baseball.

Joe Nathan is probably untradable unless the Twins agree to pick up a substantial portion of his salary. Given their history, this seems extremely doubtful to happen.

Matt Capps has struggled mightily of late in the closer's role. I doubt you'd get much value for him, but then again, the Twins traded one of their top prospects for him last year, so you never know.

Glen Perkins is an interesting possibility. If the Twins are sincerely ready to bag it for this year and try to reload for next season, then he could be a big-time trading chip. Contenders are always looking for relief pitching. If that reliever is left-handed, his value increases. If that reliever has proven to be able to handle both left-handed specialist and general late-inning relief roles, his value increases dramatically. Perk has been the club's best reliever this season, but has also spent copious amounts of time in the manager's doghouse in previous seasons. I'd be surprised, but not shocked if he got moved for the right deal.

Outside of those guys? There aren't many names that other teams are going to call about. And how shocking is it that I'm talking about the Twins moves at the trade deadline being those of a “seller” instead of a “buyer”? Who would've guessed THAT coming into this season?!

Speaking of Matt Capps...

Twins fans are calling for his head... okay, maybe not literally but they sure would like to see someone else closing games. Only I'm not sure that's the right move.

I'm not saying I'll be upset if Gardy decides to go with someone else to close games, only that I won't be upset if he doesn't.

First of all, there aren't a lot of great options. Glen Perkins is the name on most fans lips when asked who should replace Capps. The problem with that is, if you put Perk in that role, you limit his usefulness. Right now, he can come in any time in the 7th, 8th, or 9th to get a tough lefty - and any righties that come after him - out. Who fills that role if he's the closer? Mijares? Dumatrait? I don't think so.

The other option is Joe Nathan. He's been better as of late, but we all saw how shaky he was early in the year. Do you really want to put that pressure back on his shoulders at this point? I'm not sure I do.

Secondly, I think we highly over-value the closer position to begin with.

How many times have we seen one-hit wonder closers feast on cheap save opportunities (see: Rod, K)? The entire reason the “Hold” statistic was invented was because baseball stat-heads realized that often times outs recorded in the 7th and 8th innings are actually more critical to team wins than outs recorded in the 9th inning.

I'm all for having defined roles in the bullpen. I think it allows guys to get into healthy routines, understanding their role on the club and building their confidence. That being said, I don't think it should automatically be a case of, “that guy's our best reliever, he has to pitch in the 9th inning”. More often than not will that be true? Yes. But in some cases (see: Perkins, Glen), I think there are strong arguments to make exceptions to that rule.

Gardenhire said it best after last night's game, “the most important thing is to get Cappsy going good.” And he's 100% right. The Twins aren't going to contend without Matt Capps pitching well in some role. If that's not as the closer, so be it.

But let's be careful to think through the impact yanking him out of that role will have on the rest of the bullpen before we go ahead and hit the eject button.

Speaking of the eject button...

The Wild are moving players around like crazy... so maybe it's time to refer to the GM as “Trader Chuck”?

Eh, doesn't really have a good ring to it, does it?

But clearly the guy's not afraid to pull the trigger.

On the day of the NHL Entry Draft, Fletcher sent the club's top defenseman to San Jose for forward Devin Setoguchi, prospect winger Charlie Coyle and a first-round draft pick that turned into center Zack Phillips.

I've got no problem with this trade whatsoever. Brent Burns had stretches where he was an elite defenseman, but could never stay at that level consistently. Maybe he fulfills that potential with the Sharks, but it wasn't happening in Minnesota. In return, the Wild got a winger who knows how to score the puck and isn't afraid to shoot it - something too many Wild forwards have been unwilling to do in the past. They also got a couple of young prospects and considering the dearth of NHL-ready talent available to them, prospects are a desperately needed commodity.

But that wasn't the end of the wheeling and dealing from Fletch.

On Sunday, blockbuster news hit Twitter late in the afternoon that the Wild were sending forward Martin Havlat to the Sharks in exchange for Dany Heatley.

I like this trade for a couple of reasons.

One - and least importantly - Heatley is a former Badger, and as far as I'm concerned, the Wild can't have too many former Badgers on their roster!

Two - and infinitely more importantly - Havlat wasn't working here. Yes, he led the team in goals last year - and that shouldn't be undervalued. But there were long stretches of time where he'd disappear and be a total non-factor. On a team starving for skilled players, you simply can't have that.

That being said, Heatley doesn't exactly have a stellar reputation in that department. There's little reason to believe that a change of scenery is going to make things click for Heatley since the Wild will be the fourth club he's been on in his career.

So if their just swapping one disgruntled forward for another, why do I like this deal? First, Heatley's contract - while more expensive - is a year shorter than Havlat's. Which means if the Wild really are going to bottom this thing out and try and build through the draft, they're going to be out from under that commitment sooner, which is a good thing. Second, even though I'm not expecting a dramatic attitude change from Heatley, there's always hope when it comes to change. And right now, this club needs all the salable hope it can get it's mythical paws on.

Make no mistake, it's going to be a far different-looking Wild club that takes the ice this October than the one we saw last season.

Does that mean it will be better? Not necessarily. But for the first time in a while, fans can start to see a concrete and specific plan being executed by the club. And that may be enough to keep fans coming to the X while the club tries to get back into the playoffs.

That's going to wrap things up for today. Hope you feel sufficiently updated! I know I do.

Until next time, thanks for reading!

6-15-11: 2011 MLB All-Star Ballot - National League

2011-06-15T09:30:00.005-05:00

Hello again everybody...

I promised you I'd have the NL-half of my ballot coming your way, and I'm finally coming through.

But before we get to that, allow me a quick aside.

If you haven't been watching the Stanley Cup Finals - and judging by the ratings, many of you haven't been - do yourself a favor, tune in to NBC tonight at 7pm central time.

Game 7's are one of the rarest of treats in sports. For six games two teams have been beating the holy hell out of each other and have wound up in a situation where one game... three periods... 60 minutes... will determine a champion.

Everything that makes hockey great - the heart, the skill, the determination, the passion - gets dialed up another notch in a Game 7. And probably an extra notch after that, given the fact that it's Game 7 of the Finals.

I know I'm fascinated to see if this series plays to form - Vancouver's won close games late at home, while Boston's blown the doors off of the Canucks when the games have been out east - or if someone can finally win a road game.

Will Roberto Luongo be as brilliant in net as he has been in the other games in Vancouver, or will Boston get an early goal and break him as they've done in all three games in Boston?

Will Daniel Sedin step up his game and score a critical goal after guaranteeing a win a'la Mark Messier in '94? Or will Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg keep he and twin brother Henrik clamped down and off the scoring sheet like they have for most of the series?

Will we get the rare feat of the losing team's goaltender winning the Conn Smythe Award as series MVP? (If Boston wins the series, Tim Thomas is a mortal lock to win the award... if Vancouver wins, he's merely the favorite)

I'm certainly no NBA guy, but even I'll admit that the NBA Finals were pretty damned compelling. But they didn't have a Game 7... and Game 7's change everything.

Trust me. Watch the game. You won't be disappointed.

I'll step off the soap box now.

But only for a moment! Because I'll be happy to step right back up to tell you who I think should be starting for the National League in the 2011 All-Star Game.

That ballot comes your way...

Right after the quote!

“Consistency requires you to be as ignorant as you were a year ago.”
- Bernard Berenson (1865 - 1959), American historian

In other words, while some consider consistency to be a virtue, it can also be viewed as a lack of growth.

Need an example? How about fan voting in the All-Star Game?

No matter how much I rant and rave, no matter how much I strive to provide a process that could lead to a much more sensible outcome, the people insist on ignorantly making the starting line-ups a popularity contest.

If Derek Jeter - hitting .260/.324/.324, having a -1.2 UZR and a 0.5 WAR, oh and by the way he just went on the DL - is a starter at the All-Star Game, the fans should be embarrassed. I know he's “the Captain”, I know he's closing in on 3,000 hits, and I know that playing next to A-Roid makes him look like a prince, but he's not having an All-Star season, and he's certainly not having a “starting the All-Star Game” season!

Jhonny Peralta, Alexi Ramirez, Eric Aybar or Asdrubal Cabrera. You can make a case for any of them before you can legitimately make a case for Derek Jeter.

Come on, fans! Wise up a little!

Okay, okay... I'm going to take a few deep breaths and prepare to offer my assistance once again, as I present my...

2011 MLB All-Star Ballot: National League

If you missed the American League half of my 2011 All-Star Ballot, or if you need to refresh your memory, you can catch up by clicking here.

I'll offer only a brief summary of how I arrived at the following selections. I ranked all eligible player (40+ GP) at their position by OPS, UZR and WAR, then divided the UZR and WAR rankings by two to decrease the variance, and add those adjusted rankings together to arrive at a final total. The player with the lowest total received my vote.

Simple enough, right? For those of you so inclined, shoot me an email and I'll send you the spreadsheet so you can see it for yourself.

So who do I believe should be the NL starters in this year's summer classic? Glad you asked!

Here we go...

First Base: Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds (2.0)

Honorable Mentions: Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers (7.0), Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies (7.0) and Gabby Sanchez - Florida Marlins (7.0)

As you can see, Votto walks away with my vote here. I know there are going to be a lot of folks who decry my not voting for Prince Fielder here, but at the time of my tabulation, Votto had a better OPS (though Prince's recent tear has him in the lead), a better WAR (still the case) and absolutely crushed Fielder in terms of defense (very much still the case).

Votto was a legit MVP last year in the NL and he's been every bit as good this season. I think he deserves the nod, and honestly, I don't think it's all that close.

Don't get me wrong, I'd put Prince on the team, but he'd start the game on the pine.

Conspicuous by his absence here is perennial All-Star, Albert Pujols. Though he's been his usual, terrific self of late, he had a rough start to his year, and that left him to finish sixth in my rankings behind the four guys I mentioned and Ryan Howard who finished fifth.

That being said, the “popularity contest” that I'm so fond of, will likely find Albert in the starting line-up.

*sigh* Really, people? You have no sense of subtlety at all?!

Extra bonus points (not really, it's just a phrase) go to Florida's Gabby Sanchez. His teammate, Logan Morrison, has waged a unique Twitter campaign (@LoMoMarlins - if you're on Twitter, follow him, thank me later) to try and get Sanchez elected to the NL club. It's not going to work, but he gets a gold star for originality!

Second Base: Rickie Weeks - Milwaukee Brewers (4.5)

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds (4.5), Danny Espinosa - Washington Nationals (7.0), Freddy Sanchez - San Francisco Giants (9.5)

My only tie in the 2011 ranking occurred at this position. So how did I decide it? I tried to keep it simple. Weeks was tops in OPS and WAR, while Phillips didn't rank first in any. Two categories to zero, so Weeks gets the nod.

Really, you can't go wrong either way here. Phillips is a fantastic talent and having a great season. Weeks has been just as good if not a touch better. So flip a coin and vote for whichever you like. Personally, I'm going with Weeks.

Espinosa was something of a surprise to me. Anything but a household name, and stuck on a club that's going to have yet another losing season, Espinosa doesn't get your attention with his bat, but oh boy can he flash the leather. I don't think he makes the club, unless he gets the nod as the “token Nationals” representative.

Freddy Sanchez definitely isn't going to make the club. Not because he's undeserving, but because he just separated his shoulder and may be out for the rest of the year. Sad news for a guy having a solid year.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes - New York Mets (4.0)

Honorable Mentions: Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies (4.5), Stephen Drew - Arizona Diamondbacks (8.0) and Starlin Castro - Chicago Cubs (9.0)

A close one here as well with Reyes just barely edging past Tulowitzki. Tulo's got the better defensive numbers, and very solid offensive stats to go along with it. But Reyes edges him in OPS and WAR to the point that he gets my vote.

He also gets my invitation to ask for a trade to the Minnesota Twins. All due respect to the soon-to-return Tsuyoshi Nishioka, if Bill Smith could somehow swing a deal for Reyes (dangle Liriano plus a prospect perhaps?) it would certainly help a depleted Twins line-up and shore up their less-than-stellar defense.

But I've digressed. My point is that Reyes is a leading candidate to get dealt to a contender this summer. And while it's difficult to label a team with a .400 winning percentage a “contender”, I'd sure love to see him in a Twins uniform at some point!

Tulo will definitely make the club and might even get the start. Given how close my rankings are, I can't get too upset about that.

Stephen Drew's having another solid, if unspectacular season for the surprisingly-competitive Diamondbacks. I won't be surprised if he gets to play in front of his home crowd.

Starlin Castro's an up-and-coming talent in Chicago. He's not quite “there” yet, but I think he's got a string of All-Star appearances coming in the near future.

Third Base: Ryan Roberts - Arizona Diamondbacks (3.0)

Honorable Mentions: Placido Polanco - Philadelphia Phillies (4.0), Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves (6.5) and Chase Headley - San Diego Padres (8.5)

This is the one spot where I'm going off the ballot. I rarely - and here “rarely” means “never” - go off the ballot when I vote for All-Stars. The odds of a guy not being listed and yet having the numbers to justify his election are normally infinitesimal.

But this season, Roberts proves the exception to the rule. Though his UZR is slightly below-average, his OPS is far and away the best at his position and he's tied for first with Polanco in WAR. Translation? He's good enough to get my vote.

Polanco is deserving of a spot, no doubt. And I'd like to see Chipper Jones get selected as a reserve, both because he's deserving and because he's just about to close the book on a fantastic career. I'm guessing that reliever Heath Bell gets San Diego's token selection, which means Headly's doubtful to get picked.

Catcher: Chris Ianetta - Colorado Rockies (1.5)

Honorable Mentions: Brian McCann - Atlanta Braves (4.5), Yadier Molina - St. Louis Cardinals (4.5), Miguel Montero - Arizona Diamondbacks (5.5)

Again, when it comes to catchers, UZR doesn't exist, so it's purely OPS and WAR determining the rankings here.

Ianetta leads both categories, hence he's the guy. I still carry a little residual distrust for Rockies players since I confidently picked them to win their division last year, and they blatantly let me down. But the numbers are the numbers and he's by far the best at this position, so I'll give him the vote.

McCann's come in second in my rankings for about the 573rd time (that number may be slightly exaggerated). Seriously, this guy's as good as it gets at the position, but I can never find a way to vote for him. It's kind of sad.

Given that there are three Molina brothers catching in the big leagues, one of them has to make the team, right? I'll be fine with Yadier getting the nod.

Montero's a long-shot, although the fact that the game's being played in Arizona (and the game being in your home park usually benefits borderline guys), may squeak Montero onto the roster.

Outfield: Matt Holiday - St. Louis Cardinals (8.0), Shane Victorino - Philadelphia Phillies (15.0), Lance Berkman - St. Louis Cardinals (17.5)

Honorable Mentions: Ryan Braun - Milwaukee Brewers (18.0), Matt Kemp - Los Angeles Dodgers (19.0), Colby Rasmus - St. Louis Cardinals (20.0)

Brewer fans are going to be pissed at me again.

Honest folks, I really thought Braun was going to make it this year. But just like last year, his defensive numbers held him back. If he figures that part of the game out next year, he'll be a lock... I promise!

Holiday is quietly having a monster season. He's got a sky-high OPS, a well-above-average UZR and trails only Braun in terms of WAR.

He's joined on my ballot by Lance Berkman who apparently was reborn by moving back to the National League. His trade to the Yankees last year was an abject failure and many pundits thought he was basically cooked. More than a few eyebrows were raised when the Cardinals signed him and announced he'd be playing in their outfield. And for good reason - his UZR is pretty terrible. But he leads his position in OPS and his WAR is high enough that he squeaked in on my ballot ahead of Braun.

Victorino was something of a surprise. After a down year last season, he's reverted to the form that made him an All-Star in 2009. The Phillies are once again the class of the National League, so they deserve at least one starter, and I've got no trouble putting Victorino in that spot!

Matt Kemp is having a huge offensive year, but like Braun, his defensive ranking was poor enough to keep him off my ballot.

And do you want to know why the Cardinals are leading the NL Central? How about the fact that all three of their outfielders are good enough for All-Star consideration? That's mind boggling considering the number of eligible players. Kudos to the folks in St. Louis!

So there you have them folks, my NL All-Stars.

Your comments, and opinions are always welcome. Tack a comment onto the post, or feel free to email me your thoughts.

And if you're interested in helping me fight the good fight against “popularity” votes, go to: MLB.com and cast your 25 ballots for guys you think legitimately deserve to be there!

That will wrap things up for today. Not sure when the next post is coming, but I've got a few ideas rattling around my skull [insert “plenty of room for that” joke here], so hopefully it'll be soon!

Until next time, thanks for reading!

6-13-11: My Contentious Relationship With College Football: We've Got Issues

2011-06-12T09:30:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Okay, okay, I know... I said I'd have the NL-half of my All-Star ballot out today, and honestly, that was my intention!

But I got rolling with an idea on Friday and couldn't help but crank it out first.

Rest assured, the NL-ballot column is written and will be published on Wednesday. I promise. Honest. Really. I mean it this time.

Okay, I don't blame you for not believing me. But you'll see!

Instead, I've got a college football column for you. What?! How can I be talking college football in June with all this baseball wonder surrounding us?!

Well, it's only nominally about college football. At it's core, it's about being a fan of sports, what that really means, and what responsibilities we have to be honest with ourselves about what it is we really want from sports.

Sound deep?

Maybe it is. I don't know. As I write this preamble, I've only begun fleshing the idea out.

We'll see where I end up!

That ending gets its beginning...

Right after the quote!

“He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.”
- Chinese Proverb

I've got a question... and I'm not sure I've got the answer. But if I go ahead and ask it now, I think I can handle being a fool for five minutes!

[Insert your own punchline here.]

My Contentious Relationship With College Football: We've Got Issues

What's wrong with me?

There. I asked it.

What? You need more detail than that? You're probably right.

I love college football. Not as much as I love baseball, but you can see it from there.

I enjoy everything about it. The pomp, the pageantry, the atmosphere of a college campus on a crisp, fall Saturday afternoon. The passion and loyalty of the fans. The variety of styles of play all striving to achieve the same goal.

It's a unique thing in the world of sports and for all the above reasons and more, I adore it.

There's just one problem. Intellectually, I can't stand it.

How does that work, you ask? I'll tell you.

While I love college football for all of the previously stated reasons, I can't help but know that it's fundamentally flawed and corrupt.

Over the last few weeks we've had several problematic stories surrounding college football. There was the major scandal at Ohio State that cost the coach his job and prompted the star quarterback to bolt for the NFL.

There was the stripping of the 2004 BCS National Championship from USC owing to their own gross violations of NCAA rules. In that case, the coach skipped town before the hammer dropped, the star quarterback flamed out in the NFL and is now desperately clinging to his career, and the star running back - who was at the center of said violations - nearly tweeted his way out of New Orleans until his agent reminded him that other teams weren't exactly banging down his door to sign him to a new contract.

And there was the athletic director at Tennessee who was fired because of the violations surrounding his football AND basketball programs. Ironically enough, the coach who committed those football violations jumped ship to take over the USC program which was abandoned by the aforementioned coach who's now trying to ruin the Seattle Seahawks.

Follow all that? I hope so.

So when all of these stories swirl around in a vortex of sporting suck, I have to ask myself if they're endemic to those particular schools, or products of a flawed system. And I fear it's the latter.

The more I think about it, the more I worry that college football tacitly encourages cheating.

I mean, what's the down side?

Jim Tressel finds out his players are trading game-used merchandise for tattoos and cash - a blatant and obvious NCAA rules violation - and instead of reporting it to his superiors, he hides it, denies any knowledge of it when the story leaks out, and is eventually busted by Sports Illustrated. It doesn't get a whole lot more problematic than that.

So what's going to happen to him? Okay, he lost his job. So what? He'll end up working at ESPN or CBS as an analyst and keep right on earning serious dough for a few years. He'll write a book. He'll give speeches to groups of rich people across the country, and eventually, if he wants, he'll get another coaching job. Jim Tressel's going to be just fine.

Terrelle Pryor is not only one of the players trading merch for tattoos and cash, but also is under investigation for getting sweetheart deals on cars during his stay at Ohio State. How does he respond to those allegations? By driving to an informational meeting on what's going to happen to the program in a brand new, high-end Nissan with dealer plates! Honestly, you can't make this stuff up!

So what's going to happen to him? He gets to enter the NFL supplemental draft and basically write his own ticket. Oh, the horror! [I beg of you to insert copious amounts of sarcasm here.]

Pete Carroll ran a program that was so dirty, his star running back Reggie Bush got his family a freaking house! Unless I missed the NCAA football episode of “Extreme Home Makeover” I'm pretty sure you're not allowed to get a house for virtually nothing just for playing at USC.

What happened to Pete? He saw the writing on the wall and bailed to take over the Seattle Seahawks. That's right, he broke the rules, skedaddled before he could get punished and got a job that paid him more money! What a country!!!

In the wake of his exit and desperate for a coach to bring credibility back to their program, USC hired one of Pete's proteges, Lane Kiffin. Because, you know, if your program is bordering on the verge of that dreaded phrase “lack of institutional control”, you really want to go out and hire a coach that was previously part of the staff that got you into this mess in the first place!

And, oh by the way, the school Kiffin left to take the USC job? Tennessee, which just happened to be under investigation for recruiting violations committed while Kiffin held the head job there!

So what's happening to Kiffin? Well he gets a long-term contract at a school where expectations are low because of the severe scholarship penalties they have to deal with thanks to the previous coach. So no matter how lousy of a job he does, he has a built-in excuse! Millions of dollars? Auto-excuse for failure? Where do I sign up?!

And all of those guys are mere amateurs! If you want to see how real cheating is done in college football, get your hands on the ESPN 30-for-30 documentary on how the SMU football program was given the “death penalty” for its rules violations. Those guys raised cheating-while bald-facedly-lying-about-it to an art form! Wow!

These are just some of the examples of cheating that we know about. If the history of college football shows us anything, it's that these stories are merely the tip of the iceberg.

Take a look at last year's BCS National Champions, the Auburn Tigers. There were rumors of recruiting violations all throughout the year about their star quarterback Cam Newton. Nothing's been proven... yet. But if solid evidence does come to light? What's going to happen?

Nothing of consequence. Sure they might be stripped of their title, but they'll still have cashed all the checks that they earned from it. Head coach Gene Chizik might lose his job, but he'll either land a job in the NFL or go the analyst route, just like Tressel's about to. Cam Newton? He's already gone number-one overall in the NFL draft, and while he hasn't signed a contract yet (thank you, NFL lockout), it's not like his deal will be worth any less in the end.

And therein lies the problem. When the only real consequences are for the mediocre players that get left behind, are they really consequences at all? I don't think so.

And if there aren't any real consequences, isn't the NCAA just saying: “We don't mind if you cheat, we'd just really prefer that you don't get caught doing it”? Sadly, I think the answer is yes.

This annoys me. This irritates me. This makes me downright irate when I think about it.

But the real problem? Deep down in my heart of hearts, I'm not sure I care.

I say that because no matter how much I rant and rave and pound my fist in an indignant fashion, I know that come this fall, I'll be geeking out over the start of the season just like I always do.

I'll be breaking down the Badgers' new quarterback, and wondering if the coaching staff will have figured out a way to make up for the lost defensive production of J.J. Watt.

I'll be spending 4-to-12 hours each and every Saturday watching nothing but college football and loving every minute of it.

And since that's the case, then doesn't all of my annoyance, my irritation, my ranting and raving ultimately ring hollow?

If I can't work up the gumption to tell the NCAA where to go stick it until it figures out a way to police itself in a real and meaningful way, then aren't I a bloody hypocrite for criticizing those who break the rules?

In short, I have to ask... what's wrong with me?!

How can such a blind passion for a sport exist when every ethical and moral fiber of my being screams that said passion is wholly misplaced?

Do I just accept the fact that I possess two seemingly diametrically-opposed attitudes towards the sport? Do I just chalk it up to my own inherent complexity as a sometimes-irrational human being?

Or is there a way I can dance the artful jig of loving the sport while detesting the system that surrounds it?

Are those two things even separable? Or are they so hopelessly entwined that any attempt by me to justify one while abhorring the other is futile?

I don't currently have answers to any of these questions. Fortunately, kick-off is still almost three months away, so I've got time to ponder!

That's going to wrap things up for today. As I said, my NL All-Star ballot heads your way on Wednesday, so make sure to check back for that!

Until then, thanks for reading!

6-9-11: Athletes Behaving Badly

2011-06-09T09:30:00.003-05:00

Hello again everybody...

I'd honestly intended today's blog to be the second half of my All-Star ballot, but alas, that is not to be.

A couple of incidents have occurred this week that have my blood boiling. And as much as friends and colleagues have attempted to calm me down and offer perspective, I can't shake my annoyance.

What does that mean?

You got it, “epic rant” time.

Okay, I'm not sure “epic” is the right word - we'll see how things stand when I get done writing.

But I'm not holding anything back. I'm worked up and it's time for the spleen to be vented.

Said ventilation begins...

Right after the quote!

“For to whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required: and to whom men have committed much, of him they will ask the more.”
- Luke 12:48

I don't go to the bible well very often... in fact, this is probably the first time in the three years I've been at this writing thing... but I was put in mind of this quote by someone who attempted to mitigate the incidents I'm about to rant on by saying, “your standards are too high”.

Sorry, but I don't think they are. I'll explain why as I tell you about some...

Athletes Behaving Badly

I'll start with the one that has me least agitated... Vancouver Canucks defenseman Aaron Rome.

If you missed the late hit he put on Bruins forward Nathan Horton in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals, take a look:

I like physicality in hockey. I like players playing with speed and passion. And if that means someone gets knocked off their skates, fine. If that player gets injured, fine. That's part of the game.

But when it happens because of a dirty hit? Not okay.

What makes this particular hit so offensive?

One, Horton had given up the puck before Rome ever began to set himself for the hit. That's an interference penalty at a minimum, and most aptly described as a horrifically bad decision. It's one thing to finish a check. It's another thing to line up a guy who's already clearly surrendered the puck. That's wrong. That's dirty.

Two, Horton's head was down. Some of that's on Horton. When you skate through the middle of the ice in the NHL, you have to have your head up, otherwise a completely clean and legitimate hit could still be disastrous for you. But there's no way you can convince me that Rome didn't see and recognize the fact that Horton's head was down. The play developed right in front of him. I can't imagine how he didn't see it and decide to act anyway. That's wrong. That's dirty.

Three, Rome leaves his feet. When you're hitting a player in open ice and you leave your feet to do it, where do you think contact is most likely to be made? The only answer is at, or near the impacted player's head. That's wrong. That's dirty.

Rome was given a game misconduct penalty and tossed from the game. Subsequent to that the NHL suspended him for four games. That means at a minimum he'll miss the rest of the Finals. If the series ends in less than seven games, that suspension will carry over to next season.

My view? That's not enough. Not nearly enough.

When a player makes a hit this egregious, a message needs to be sent by the league. This will not be tolerated. This will not stand.

Speed, passion and aggression are what makes hockey such a fantastic sport to watch, but there are lines and they simply can't be crossed.

But when the punishment for crossing them is a measly four games, what message are you sending?

“Gee, we wish you hadn't done that, but we don't want to get reversed on appeal, so we'll suspend you for four games and hope you just take it.”

Way to send a strong message NHL! I'm sure that'll make the next guy think twice before nearly taking someone's head off!

[Insert sarcasm here.]

The Hammer, my co-worker, and one of the most passionate hockey fans I know (seriously folks, if you like hockey and haven't read his work, do yourself a favor, click on his name, and peruse his goodness) argues that the suspension was right on.

It's his contention that Rome isn't a dirty player, has no reputation for this, didn't use his elbow and therefore had no intent to injure Horton. Therefore, while a suspension was merited, a severe one was not.

I can't help it, I just disagree. There's no way we can determine with any degree of certainty (copyright Anthony Weiner) what was in Rome's mind. But based on the three elements I outlined previously, the possibility of injury was too high for to have any other outcome. Therefore, whatever Rome's “intent” was, he should be punished for the outcome of his actions, not for his intention.

Hammer also wants to give Rome a break since Aaron himself was a victim of a similar dirty hit earlier in the season. I say that's all the more reason to punish Rome. Of all people, he should know better than to put himself in a position to give out a hit like that.

Think my standards are too high? I don't think so. I think it's fair to expect a guy who's played hockey his entire life to act reasonably towards a vulnerable player on the ice.

“Oh, I didn't mean to do that” doesn't cut it here.

Aaron Rome's been blessed with the talents to play at the NHL level. It's ungracious of him to disrespect his fellow players and the game by throwing a hit like that.

“For to whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required: and to whom men have committed much, of him they will ask the more.”

Oh, and the bittersweet karmic backlash from that hit? Since then, the Bruins have out-scored the Canucks 12 to 1 and have gone from an 0-2 deficit in the series to tying it at two games apiece.

Congrats on that, Aaron! Well played, sir!

Next, Bryce Harper. If you haven't seen what he Washington Nationals prospect did, allow me to replay it for you:

Now, initial reports focused on the kiss he blew the pitcher. And while that's certainly immature and lacking in class, what really bothered me was the way he posed after hitting the home run.

Miss it? Go back and watch again. The kid kills the pitch, watches it for a second, then starts walking down the baseline until he's about halfway to first, when he breaks into the slowest home run trot in the history of the bus leagues.

Want to know what generated the kiss? My bet is that the pitcher was barking at him for showing him up, and Bryce's best comeback was blowing him a smooch.

You stay classy, Bryce!

I got into a heated debate with some colleagues about this incident.

“But you don't know what the pitcher did” said one.

To me, it doesn't matter. Sure, Harper was hit by a pitch the day before. I bet he felt all kinds of exaltation at avenging that with a home run. So what! Put your head down, run around the bases and act like a professional. You earn nothing but scorn and damage to your reputation by showing up other players.

Well that, and probably another fastball in the back. Enjoy that one, Bryce!

“Find me a home run hitter who doesn't pose” said another colleague.

Really? That's the standard we're going with? Bonds posed, Manny posed, Big Papi flipped his bat and posed just the other night. So it's okay for a kid in A-ball to do the same thing?

Baseball's been around a lot longer than Bryce Harper. Players with a million times more class have done far more than he ever has. I don't think you ever earn the right to pose and show up opposing players, but for a player in Class A ball to pull that garbage is truly obnoxious.

The bottom line is: no posing, no preening, no slow trot around the bases and the pitcher doesn't say anything and the rest of the nonsense doesn't happen. That's the lesson that needs to be learned here.

Yes, Harper's an 18-year-old kid. No, I don't expect someone to have achieved their full emotional maturity at that age. But for a kid with his talent, who's played baseball his whole life, and is as familiar with the unwritten rules and etiquette as anyone his age could be, he's more than deserving of criticism when he pulls crap like this.

“For to whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required: and to whom men have committed much, of him they will ask the more.”

Whew... okay. Rant... fin.

I feel much better now.

Hopefully I wasn't too over the top there. These sort of things drive me half-goofy.

[Insert “bet that's not a long trip” joke here.]

That's going to do it for today. I'm going to do my best to have the second half of my 2011 All-Star Ballot column done for you by Monday... or at least before the rosters are announced!

Until next time, thanks for reading!

6-6-11: 2011 MLB All-Star Ballot - American League

2011-06-06T09:30:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

I hope you all had a brilliant weekend. We finally had decent weather here in Minnesota (why couldn't the Twins be playing at home?!) and, near as I can tell, a good time was had by all.

Before we get to the sports, one quick note: Happy Anniversary, Mom & Dad!

That's right, just a scant *mumble-grumble* years ago, my folks got hitched, God bless 'em. And lo these *insert muffled, inaudible noise here* years later, they're still together and going strong! Kudos to you both and I promise... my card's in the mail!

Onward...

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are in full swing with the Vancouver Canucks up 2-0 in the series over the Boston Bruins. Both games have been closely played, with Vancouver picking up the game winner late or in overtime. 2-0 leads can be overcome, but Boston's going to have a rough time coming back against a team as talented as the Canucks.

The NBA Finals are cruising along as well. Yes, regular readers know that I'm not much of a NBA fan, but with the shop now becoming the Wolves flagship station, I feel compelled to pay a certain amount of attention. The Heat are up 2-1 in the series and seized home court advantage back with their win last night in Dallas.

My analysis? I don't like Miami for two reasons: one, for the same reason everybody else hates them (The Decision, the celebration, etc.) and two, because they've forced me to roots for Mark Cuban's team. Nobody should have to do that.

But neither the Cup, or the Larry O'Brien Trophy carry as much weight around here as the Commissioner's Trophy... that's right, baseball uber alles!

And as we near the half-way mark in the pursuit of said trophy, it's time to prepare for the Summer Classic, the MLB All-Star Game. Each year I assemble a ballot. Each year I try to fill said ballot with deserving - not necessarily “popular” players.

How did this year's ballot turn out? Glad you asked. You'll find out half the answer...

Right after the quote!

“The least of learning is done in the classrooms.”
- Thomas Merton (1915 - 1968), Catholic monk

I don't think the good friar was trying to denigrate schools. Rather he was pointing out that what you learn in school is merely preparatory for the massive amount of learning you do in that little thing called “life”.

2011 MLB All-Star Ballot: American League

Last Year I developed a new system for creating my All-Star Ballot.

Basically, I took what I thought were the three best statistics at measuring a player's performance - OPS (On-Base + Slugging Percentage) for offense, UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) for defense, and WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for overall value - and ranked each eligible player (40+ games played) in each of those three categories.

I then added up the rankings and the player with the lowest score got my vote. Simple enough.

Only I wasn't entirely happy with the results. Not that the players I ended up with weren't deserving, but I thought the overall rankings didn't come out quite right. I believe that's because there's such small variations in the UZR and WAR ratings producing large variations in the rankings. For instance, a difference of a half-point in those two categories was producing a ranking difference of six points or more. That didn't seem quite fair.

So to counter that problem, I decided that this year, I would rank players in the same fashion, but then divide the rankings for UZR and WAR by two, thereby reducing the size of the gaps in the rankings. That decision had the side-effect of making the OPS rankings far more determinate in a player's overall ranking, but I don't think that's a huge problem.

As much as I'm a “pitching and defense” guy, there's no question that offense drives the show in baseball, and even more so in the All-Star Game. So if my formula favors offense a little bit, so be it.

So the spreadsheet is filled out, the rankings have been determined, and what follows are who I voted for the requisite 25 times online for the 2011 All-Star Game.

Today you get my American League Ballot. I'll reveal my NL picks later in the week.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez - Boston Red Sox (Ranking total: 3.5)

Honorable Mentions: Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers (6.5), Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees (8.0), and Mitch Moreland - Texas Rangers (8.5)

As much as I dislike voting for a player from Boston - yes, I'm keeping to my promise not to use the “h” word - this one's a must.

Gonzalez leads all qualified first basemen in UZR and WAR and is second only to Cabrera in OPS. As questionable as free agent acquisition Carl Crawford's performance has been for the Red Sox, Gonzalez's output has been exactly as advertised, if not more.

He's likely to win the Gold Glove at his position, and the regularity with which he's hitting line-drives off the Monster has his OPS at a sky-high .934. And my guess is he'll only get better as he learns all the quirks and eccentricities of Fenway Park.

Cabrera has managed to avoid any drunk driving arrests during the season so far, so I guess he's still eligible for the ballot. Tex has been emblematic of the Yankees this year: good, but not eye-popping. Moreland was something of a surprise since you don't hear his name a ton, but the Rangers are slowly starting to seize control of their division, and Moreland's play is part of the reason why.

Second Base: Ben Zobrist - Tampay Bay Rays (4.0)

Honorable Mentions: Howie Kendrick - Los Angeles Angels (4.5), Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox (7.0) and Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers (8.0)

I figured this position would be a surprise, and I wasn't disappointed.

I counted on a surprise because the usual suspect here - Pedroia - has had a rough start thanks to some injuries. Pedroia's UZR (4.5) is sky-high as usual and his WAR (1.6) isn't that far off the norm, but his .688 OPS is a killer and knocked him out of any serious contention.

The player I figured would benefit most from Pedroia's down-year was the Yankees Robinson Cano, but as you can see, he didn't even make “honorable mention”. His .793 OPS isn't as high as I expected it to be, though it's still above average. What hurt him was poor defense (-2.3 UZR) and a surprisingly low WAR (1.1).

That threw the door wide open. Enter, Ben Zobrist.

Once again, the Rays were predicted to “come back to earth” after a series of competitive seasons, and once again, they're right there in the thick of things with the Yankees and Red Sox.

We've known for a while that Zobrist is a good all-around player. So much so that the Rays have found it tough to keep him at just one position, shifting him from second base to the outfield and back. That hasn't completely ended this season, but the bulk of his time has been spent at second base, and his numbers there have been outstanding.

Kendrick has been an offensive tour-de-force for the Angels, and nearly got the vote himself. It's a testament to how good Pedroia is that he's having a “down year” and still finished third. Kinsler's a guy who I keep waiting for to make “the leap” and never quite does. He's good, but I expected this guy to be a superstar. I'm still waiting.

Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta - Detroit Tigers (5.0)

Honorable Mentions: Alexei Ramirez - Chicago White Sox (6.0), Eric Aybar - Los Angeles Angels (7.5), and Asdrubal Cabrera - Cleveland Indians (9.0)

Remember when the AL East was the home of all the good shortstops? Not so much anymore.

As a fan of an AL Central club, I can definitively say it's been a lousy year for that division. But one bright spot has been the emergence of quality shortstops.

Jhonny Peralta (no, that's not a typo, that's how he spells his first name) isn't new to the division or even the game for that matter. Now in his ninth season in the bigs, the bulk of which came with the Tribe, Peralta's finally realizing some of the potential that got him to the Show in the first place. He's on pace for career highs in batting average, OPS, home runs, RBI and walks. His defense isn't going to win him any awards any time soon, but his offense more than makes up for those deficiencies.

Ramirez seems to be making “the leap” as well. After finishing second in the balloting in '08, Alexei sank into relative obscurity with a couple of good, but not as great, years - though it should be pointed out that he did win the Silver Slugger award at his position last season. He's built on that late-season success this year, and were it not for Peralta's offensive emergence, he'd have gotten the vote. Aybar, like Kendrick is quietly having an outstanding offensive season, though his defense hurt him in the rankings.

Of course, I wanted to vote for Cabrera since “Asdrubal” is still very high on my “What I'd like to name a Son” list (sorry, Mom). He's been good this year, but not good enough to get the nod here.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees (3.5)

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Youklis - Boston Red Sox (6.0), Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers (6.5), and Macier Izturis - Los Angeles Angels (7.0)

Oh my word how I hate having to make this pick.

I don't know anybody who's an A-Rod fan, and that's not an accident. What's to dislike more? His arrogance? His preening? Cameron Diaz feeding him popcorn at the Super Bowl? (Who'd have thought those two crazy kids wouldn't make it?!) Oh, and did I mention he's an admitted PED user?!

But the numbers don't lie. He trails only Youklis in OPS and leads the league by a solid margin in UZR and WAR. If he's still using, he's using the good stuff because he hasn't popped a positive test recently.

Dammit.

Youklis isn't a player I like much better, but at least he hasn't cheated... that we know of. Beltre's been a great pick-up for the Rangers and would be the guy I'd most like to vote for. Izturis continues the pattern of quality Angels infielders who somehow can't pilot their club above .500 for any serious period of time.

Catcher: Alex Avila - Detroit Tigers (2.0)

Honorable Mentions: Russell Martin - New York Yankees (2.5), Matt Weiters - Baltimore Orioles (4.5), and Carlos Santana - Cleveland Indians (6.0)

One caveat when it comes to the rankings for catcher, they don't measure UZR at that position, so it's strictly a combination of OPS and WAR rankings.

That being said, the rankings worked out much like I'd hoped. Avila has been outstanding for the Tigers this year. I scoffed when a colleague of mine suggested that the Tigers were his pick to win the Central. Clearly the only two contenders were the Twins and the White Sox, right?!

Um, not so much.

As wonderful as Cleveland's start has been this year, they're going to come back to earth sooner or later. And I fear for woebegone Tribe fans, that slide has already started. The Tigers haven't exactly jumped forward to stake their claim on the division yet, but they're in the best position of any of the other clubs to do so.

Russell Martin has found something in New York. After appearing in back-to-back All-Star Games for the Dodgers in '07 and '08, Martin's career fell off the map, so to speak. Like many before him, however, Martin's found success after signing with the Yankees as a free agent. After all, in that lineup, they have to pitch to somebody, and Martin's been able to take advantage of it.

Weiters was advertised as “Joe Mauer with power” when he arrived in the big leagues. Those expectations were quickly quieted as he faced his fair share of struggles adjusting to life in the majors, but it finally seems like he's getting things on the right track in what has otherwise been a dreadful year in Baltimore.

Santana had his rookie campaign cut tragically short after suffering a broken leg in an awkward collision at home plate. Funny how there wasn't the same outcry over that injury as there was over Buster Posey's injury this season. Then again, Santana wasn't coming off of a World Series victory I suppose. If nothing else, Santana's injury should offer hope to Giants fans, since he's come back and been as good as ever.

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox (1.5)

Honorable Mentions: Michael Young - Texas Rangers (2.5), Jason Kubel - Minnesota Twins (4.5), Billy Butler - Kansas City Royals (6.0)

As with catcher, there's no UZR rating here - for obvious reasons - so again, we're left with purely OPS and WAR.

And I hate this pick as well. Sensing a pattern yet?

Really?! I have to vote for Big Papi?! Another PED user. A guy who pissed and moaned about not winning an MVP award even though he wasn't good enough to play in the field. A guy who hung around Manny Ramirez long enough to learn how to pose, watch home runs fly out and show up pitchers.

Joy.

But the numbers are the numbers. He leads all eligible players in both categories. I don't have to like it, but there you are.

If I was to go for a straight sympathy vote, Michael Young would be my guy. All he's done is move from shortstop to third base, to DH and excel each time the Rangers shifted him around to accommodate someone else. I don't doubt he'll be an All-Star again this season, and it's well deserved.

Kubel is the only Minnesota Twin to get a sniff on my ballot, and that's for good reason. The team's been awful so far this year, and Kubel's been one of the few bright spots.

Billy Butler was a liability defensively at first base, and will likely spend the rest of his career DH'ing or coming off the bench. Hey, if Matt Stairs can create a career out of doing that, why not Billy Butler? He was a large part of Kansas City being hot out of the gate, though like the Royals as a whole, he's been on a downward slide as of late.

Outfield: Jose Bautista - Toronto Blue Jays (4.0), Matt Joyce - Tampa Bay Rays (8.5) and Curtis Granderson - New York Yankees (9.5)

Honorable Mentions: Carlos Quentin - Chicago White Sox (11.0), Jeff Francouer - Kansas City Royals (11.5) and Alex Gordon - Kansas City Royals (12.5)

Bautista is the obvious choice. In his quest to prove that his break-out season last year was no fluke, he leads the league in runs scored, walks, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Two-thirds of the way to a Triple Crown? Yeah, that gets you my All-Star vote.

Joyce is honestly a surprise to me. I knew he was good, but second in the balloting good? That was news to me.

Granderson was a more expected choice. He showed some pop in Detroit before getting traded to New York. It took him some time to adjust, but the pop is back and his speed in the outfield is a definite plus for the Yankees.

If Quentin was better defensively, he'd have gotten a vote. His offense is more than good enough.

Francouer and Gordon are both interesting stories for the Royals. “Frenchy” is trying to revive a previously stalled career and while Kansas City seems an odd place to be doing it, there's no question but that he's been their leader so far. That being said, I don't expect him to finish the year in KC. A team with that much young talent would be remiss not to take the opportunity to flip Francouer to a contender for some prospects.

Gordon was the “highly touted prospect” that never really found his way in the big leagues. You'd think on a team as terrible as the Royals, they'd have been able to find him plenty of playing time to develop, and yet Gordon bounced between the majors, triple-A and the disabled list like he was sitting on flubber. Something seems to have clicked this year, however. Whether he finally found an appropriate defensive position in left field, or he just plain figured it out at the plate, he's been at least close to what Kansas City hoped for when he first came up, and that's good enough to get him a mention here.

So there you have my AL ballot. See any glaring omissions? Post a comment, or shoot me an email and let me know!

I'll have my NL ballot for you later this week. In the mean time, head over to MLB.com and make your picks.

Remember, you can't complain if you don't vote! And how often do you get to vote 25 times legally?!

Until next time, thanks for reading!

5-20-11: Notes

2011-05-20T10:52:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Throwing together a quick post before work today. It's a rainy, dreary Friday here in Minnesota, but I'm feelin fine.

Why's that you ask?

I've got a 3-day weekend coming (vacation day on Monday - ballgame) and I've also just joined the modern era of high-speed cable internet.

I was on the DSL bandwagon, but the phone lines in my building are so archaic that the modem kept getting overloaded and crapping out. Finally I'd had enough.

The speed is a little intimidating. I have to make extra-sure I pause and review my Tweets before I send them! But all in all, it's a good thing and I'm excited to take advantage of it.

My plan? White Sox/Dodgers is tonight's free game on MLB.TV. Sounds like a good use of bandwidth to me!

Moving on...

I've got some notes to catch up on before the weekend officially begins. And I'll get to those...

Right after the quote!

“No human thing is of serious importance.”
- Plato (427 BC - 347 BC), Greek philosopher

Keeps with the “it's Friday, let's not be too serious here” theme today, no?

Notes...

The Big Ten is examining a plan to pay players... and I'm going to tell you why it won't work.

I'm not going to get real deep into the “should players be paid” argument. For years, I've been of the opinion that a $30k+ per year education should be payment enough, but I'm not sure that's applicable any more.

In today's hyper-interested sports world, colleges and universities literally make tens of millions of dollars off of their high-profile sports teams. Given that, $30k+ per year seems a little small for the players who ultimately are the genesis of that revenue. So I'm warming to the idea that perhaps they deserve a stipend of some sort for their efforts.

That being said, I don't think there's a workable plan for it.

Why do I say that? Simple. Title IX.

You can't pay everybody. Football and men's basketball are the primary (and in some cases sole) generators of revenues for college athletic departments. But if you develop a plan to just pay those players, well, hopefully you've got a good set of lawyers.

There's no way that a university is going to come up with a plan to pay just those players and NOT get sued by the folks representing the women's programs as well as the rest of the non-revenue sports.

But wait, you say... if those sports aren't generating money, how can they justify deserving to get paid?

Because this is college. And we've decided in our society that equal opportunities should exist for all when it comes for college. That's the entire reason for the existence of Title IX.

Again, I could get sidetracked here by the inherent unfairness of including football scholarships in the Title IX formula, but that's a discussion for another day.

So if we're going to insist on that kind of equality, then if one group gets paid, they all have to get paid right? And even if the stipend is modest, if you have to pay all of the athletes at a major university, that's going to cut so deeply into their budgets as to make the entire idea unfeasible.

Bottom line, I'd like to see some way for the athletes that generate revenue for schools be able to participate a little more in the reception of said revenue, I just don't think it can be done without creating a whole slew of new problems.

The Twins are undefeated since Harmon's passing... but sadly, I think that's going to end tonight.

And I'm not just saying that because they're playing my favorite National League club.

Today, there will be a funeral/memorial service for Harmon Killebrew in Scottsdale, AZ, and according to several published reports, the Twins have arranged for multiple buses to bring their players from Phoenix (where they're set to open a three-game interleague series against the Diamondbacks tonight) over to Scottsdale for the ceremony.

(By the way, if you wish to watch that service, the Twins will be streaming it live on their website: twinsbaseball.com starting at noon central time.)

Several of the players, in fact, are designated to be pall bearers.

How you go through something like that, and then prepare yourself for a ballgame is beyond me. Frankly, I don't think it can be done.

Ian Kennedy will be on the hill for Arizona tonight. He's been pretty decent this season. So combine a solid pitcher, with a lineup that simply has to be distracted by what it when through earlier in the day? That doesn't lead to scoring many runs in my estimation.

Maybe I'm wrong - it certainly wouldn't be the first time - maybe Harmon will smile down on them yet again and inspire them to their fourth-straight victory. But I'm not counting on it.

And if the club has to sacrifice one ballgame in order to get to attend the funeral and pay their final respects... I can live with that.

Another former cyclist says Lance Armstrong doped... and Jimmy cracked corn, and I don't care.

Coming up Sunday on CBS's 60 Minutes (another fine CBS program - and I don't just say that because I'm a CBS employee - *cough, cough*), the soon-to-be-anchor of CBS's evening news, Scott Pelley interviews one of Lance Armstrong's former teammates who claims to have seen Lance using PED's before and during multiple Tour de France's.

This certainly isn't the first time we've heard these allegations. First they came from the French cycling community (although, they are French, and we know the French aren't to be trusted!), then they came from Minnesota's own Greg LeMond (and while he's earned a trustworthy reputation, he had no direct evidence), then they came from former teammate Floyd Landis (who said he saw Lance use, but had no credibility whatsoever since he'd been busted for PED-use himself).

Now we have former teammate Tyler Hamilton saying he saw Lance use. I'll wait til I see the 60 Minutes (a fine CBS program) story before judging his credibility, but even if I do judge him credible, I find it difficult to get all that worked up about it.

The use of PED's in cycling has been so rampant over the last decade or so, that it's tough to say Lance really cheated. After all, that's why people get so upset about PED-use in sports like baseball. If Barry Bonds uses steroids to break Hank Aaron's record, while Jim Thome cleanly passes a legend like Harmon Killebrew, which one of those two accomplishments should be celebrated more?

The fact that we even have to discuss that question puts a stain on the game.

But if more than half the field at the Tour de France is shooting up, then who cares?

There's a reason that cycling has fallen off the sports-map so dramatically. If nobody pays attention to PED-use, if nobody bothers to nip it in the bud, if by the time anyone gets around to testing the athletes they find out that nearly everybody is on the juice, then you can't be surprised when your sport is met with a collective yawn.

Lance will deny it. There won't be any test result to definitively prove it. And ultimately, I'm not sure he gained much if any competitive advantage if he did do it. So really, it's difficult to care.

That's going to wrap things up for today. Have a wonderful weekend and hopefully I'll have something for you next week.

Until then, thanks for reading!

5-16-11: Forgetting Friday...

2011-05-16T10:42:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Boy I wish I had something more pleasant to write about. I warned you all a couple of weeks ago when I returned to writing that my work may not be as regular as it had been in the past; that I was more inclined to write “when the spirit moved me” rather than sticking to a set schedule.

I'm still not sure how that's all going to play out. For all I know, I may end up writing every Monday, Wednesday and Friday as I've done in the past. But for now, I'm posting when I feel like I've got something to say.

I just wish what I had to say today wasn't so damned depressing.

Maybe it'll be cathartic for me. Perhaps I even dare to dream that reading it will be cathartic for someone else. Either way, I figure it's worth writing.

So I'll get to it,

Right after the quote...

“There is no cure for birth and death save to enjoy the interval. The dark background which death supplies brings out the tender colors of life in all their purity.”
- George Santayana (1863 - 1952), American philosopher and poet

I'm really trying to find some positives in all of this, but it's not easy. Those “tender colors” are eluding me at the moment...

Forgetting Friday...

By now, I'm sure most of you have heard about the sad news from Friday. I'll briefly recap things, but mostly this is going to be about trying to wrap my head around it and finding a way to accept things and move forward.

Harmon Killebrew is dying.

That's the first bit of news that greeted me last Friday morning.

We'd known for a while that he was waging a battle with esophageal cancer. We'd known for a while that the battle wasn't likely to end well for Harmon.

Sadly, we found out on Friday that the battle was essentially lost, and Harmon had decided to enter hospice care rather than continue treatments that evidently hadn't worked.

Even armed with the knowledge that esophageal cancer isn't one of the more treatable forms of cancer, this still came as a blow to those of us who'd had the pleasure to meet Harmon over the years. Ask any of those folks and they'll all say the same thing: Harm's one of the good guys. And it's painful to see one of the good guys taken out by such a painful disease.

In the latter stages of my grandfather's life, he spent a lot of time at the VA Medical Center. The folks who run that place do the best job they can on a government budget to make life as comfortable for sick and dying veterans as they can, but it's still not a fun place to visit.

That didn't stop Harmon Killebrew from stopping by.

Harm was in the next generation of baseball players after guys like Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio who put their careers on hold to serve in WWII. He saw the sacrifices those guys made, and never forgot the value of those folks who chose to serve their country.

So when he was offered the opportunity to stop by the VA and chat with some of the vets he gladly took it.

I wasn't there the day that he sat and chatted with my grandfather and other vets. But I still have one of the baseballs he willingly signed, and the stories about that day which have been passed to me by the folks who were there are seared into my memory.

I think the notion of the arrogant, stuck-up, “life owes me something” pro athlete get overblown. Yes, those guys are out there, but I don't think they're as prevalent as a lot of people assume.

For the most part, pro athletes are just guys trying to get through the day, the same as anybody else. They help where they can, but for the most part, they're just trying to live life. Unlike most people, however, they live it with an extra layer of security around them.

I'm not just talking about bodyguards - though sadly, for some, that's a necessity - I'm talking about having emotional walls up, because 90% of the people they meet every day want something from them.

Don't get me wrong, I'd trade places with most of them in a heartbeat. But think I can understand how tough it's got to be after a while to get asked for an autograph, picture, or “just five minutes” every single place you go.

If you meet 60 people a day who want “just five minutes of your time”, that's five hours of your day that get taken up. Sixty may seem like a exaggerated number, but in the lives of some high-profile athletes, that's par for the course.

So a lot of guys create a figurative distance between themselves and the people they interact with. They're not bad people, they just don't want to have all their time taken by media and fan requests.

The truly good guys, however, figure out a way to find a balance between their personal and public lives. Harmon was one of those guys.

He didn't let all of his time get taken up with media, fan and charity commitments. But when he did get involved with those things, he took them seriously and made a genuine effort to make the people he was involved with feel like he appreciated them.

That's the story you hear over and over again. “Harm shook my hand, looked me in the eye and said thank you... and I could tell he meant it.”

That's what I hear from the folks who were with my grandfather at the VA. And that's what I know from having met Harmon in the course of my job duties.

Harm's one of the good guys. I just hope his transition to the next world is as quick and comfortable as possible.

I only met Derek Boogaard briefly one time, but it didn't take long to figure out he was one of the good guys too.

The news of his death was as big a blow as the news about Harmon. Maybe even more so, since unlike the news about Killer, it was completely unexpected.

The “Boogie Man”, as Minnesota hockey fans affectionately dubbed him, was an intimidating presence. Standing every inch of 6-feet 7-inches, there was a moment when you met him where you had to briefly consider the fact that this guy could crush you if he really wanted to, and there'd be very little you could do to stop him.

But that thought was very brief, because it only took a short conversation with him to feel completely at ease.

The day I met Derek, he was out at the State Fair promoting the Wild's new green sweaters. He was also as sick as a dog. Yet even while feeling ill, he managed to crack a few jokes and thank everybody involved for having him on the air.

Not something he had to do, but just like Harmon, he went out of his way to do it anyway.

We don't know yet what caused Derek's death on Friday, only that he was found dead in his apartment by his brothers who were in town for a visit.

I'm not sure it really matters what caused it though. Nobody should be dead at 28 years old. Nobody.

So I got going on Friday to the news that Harm was near the end, and got home to find out that the Boogie Man was no more.

Throughout the day I got emails, texts and tweets asking if I'd heard and what I knew. My response was generally the same: “This day needs to end... quickly.”

In the past, I've talked about my struggles understanding death. Why it comes to some good people in such a painful way, and why it comes to others far too early in their lives.

I'm no closer to understanding it today than I ever have been.

I admire the sentiments of folks like Mr. Santayana. I wish I could see death in that kind of uplifting way.

But I don't.

I'll try to tip my cap to Harm, and say a small thank you for the joy he brought my grandfather late in his life. I'll try to salute Derek and say a small thank you for all the fun he brought hockey fans as we watched him pummel his opponents.

I'll try to accept that they're going and gone, and that death is a natural part of life.

But I'd still vastly prefer to forget about Friday all together.

Oof.

That's going to wrap things up for today. I'm not sure I feel any better, but maybe a little.

Still not sure when the next columns coming. I just hope it's inspired by something a lot less dramatic than this!

Until next time, thanks for reading!

5-9-11: While I Was Away, Pt. 2...

2011-05-09T09:51:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Allow me to begin the week with this caveat: I've got no clue what's coming after today.

So far, my return to regular blogging has been far more regular than I had anticipated. That's because I had a couple of ideas in the bank (one of which turned into this two-parter) and then a no-hitter dropped out of the sky.

But as I sit here penning this particular column, I've got no earthly idea what form the next one will take, or when it's going to get published.

So be forewarned. I hope you enjoy today's missive and have patience with me, should I fail to produce something for Wednesday... or for Friday... or for... well, you get the idea!

One other quick note before I get things going today. A lot of people wondered why I didn't include a Kentucky Derby pick on Friday. The truth is, I didn't have one. I started looking at the stats on Wednesday after the post-draw, but by Friday I still hadn't settled on a horse. By the time Saturday came around, I couldn't narrow down my choices to the point where I felt comfortable making a wager. And I'm glad I didn't.

In the end, I could've made arguments for at least half-a-dozen horses, and the winner, Animal Kingdom, wasn't any of them. Sometimes you get surprise winners because of track conditions, or because a favorite falters. In this year's Derby, we got a surprise winner because the field was just that lousy. The favorite was only a favorite by default, and the two horses whose betting lines moved the most were a very mediocre horse ridden by Calvin Borel which took action simply because he'd won three of the last four Derbys - one on a 50-1 long shot - and a decent horse ridden by a 23-year-old woman which took action because she was trying to become the first female jockey ever to win the Derby. When those factors are the ones moving the needle? Yeah, you've got a lousy race on your hands.

Truthfully, I have no clue what's going to happen in the Preakness. I assume Animal Kingdom will run in it, but as lousy as the Derby was, I'm not expecting great things.

Okay, moving on.

When we left things on Friday, the Giants had won the pennant, the Giants had won the pennant, the Giants had won the... okay, well they won the World Series actually. But I love that call of Bobby Thompson's home run as much as any other baseball rube, so there you go.

The Giants won the series, the Vikings imploded and the Badgers lost the Rose Bowl. So what else happened while I was on my blogging hiatus?

I'm so glad you asked! I've got three more topics to discuss, and I'll get to them...

Right after the quote!

“Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there.”
- Will Rogers (1879 - 1935), American cowboy, comedian, humorist, social commentator, vaudeville performer and actor.

Ever forward, my friends. Ever forward! ...unless you're taking a look back at things, such as in this little column, which I like to call...

While I Was Away, Part 2...

The Big Ten came up with “Leaders” and “Legends”... and I'm still trying to figure out how much money they threw away on that dreck.

Regular readers may recall a column I wrote last July where I laid out my arguments both for Big Ten divisional alignments, and division names.

The actual alignments ended up being close, but not exactly what I'd envisioned. I don't have a huge problem with the way they worked out, but selfishly, I'm not a huge fans of the Badgers getting lumped in the same division as Ohio State.

I do, however, have an enormous problem with the concept that the Big Ten paid a consulting firm to come up with division names, and ended up with “Leaders” and “Legends”.

Really?! That's what we're going with?!

You could lock three eight-year-olds in a room with a box of crayons and a pile of candy and they'd end up with something better than “Leaders” and “Legends”!

Look, I knew that my idea of “Griffin” and “Ameche” divisions probably wasn't going to fly. Picking two former coaches or players, no matter how prominent their history, was bound to irk somebody in the conference, so I don't mind them going in another direction.

I just wish that direction wasn't “let's pick two of the most generic nouns we can find, and as long as they start with the same letter, everybody will think they're okay”.

If that's your primary criteria, then why not “Tree” and “Turkey”... or “Steel” and “Stone”... or even “Samson” and “Samsonite”?! I mean seriously, any of those have as much to do with Big Ten football as “Leaders” and “Legends” do!

I just don't feel like I can stress this point enough... the conference paid serious money to a group that came back with “Leaders” and “Legends”, and not only did the brain wizards NOT demand their money back, they held a press conference and announced the names on their own network like they were the greatest thing since sliced bread!

I'll give conference commissioner, Jim Delaney, this much credit. Within weeks of the - well “tepid” is probably too kind of a term - fan response to the announcement, he'd already announced that the ideas for division names would be revisited.

Just do me one favor, Jim. While you're “revisiting” that subject, take “Leaders” and “Legends” out behind the woodshed and put them out of their misery, would you please?

For the record, I have no clue whether Wisconsin resides in the “Leaders” or “Legends” division. And if that bit of knowledge fails to ever work it's way into my brain, I'll be just fine, thank you.

Ugh.

The wheels came off the Wild's season & they fired their coach... not to mention they switched radio stations!

No one was expecting the Wild to compete for the Stanley Cup this year. In fact, I don't think there was a very large group of people who were shocked by the fact that they failed to make the post-season... again.

But as late as February, the team was very much in the hunt for a play-off spot and the spectacular manner in which they failed to make it was both surprising and disappointing. And in the end, it cost head coach Todd Richards his job.

It's tempting to blame the Wild's late-season downward spiral on injuries. Any club that loses two of its top scorers - in their case, Mikko Koivu and Cal Clutterbuck - to injury for a significant period of time is bound to experience a drop-off in production.

The trouble for the Wild was that Koivu and Clutterbuck were hardly elite scorers to begin with, so when they're leading your team, and they go out with injuries, that production “drop-off” is more like “falling off a cliff”.

Marty Havlat was the best player the club had left, only he doesn't seem to be able to stay interested for more than a week at a time. And even when he's at his best, he's fairly soft on the puck. On rare occasions this season, we witnessed his potential as he went into what I like to call “beast mode” and drove to the net, shedding defenders left and right, to score. Sadly, those moments were far to rare to justify the massive contract he was signed to. In the end, he ended up with an “injury” that kept him out of the final games after the Wild had already been eliminated. I'm not sayin' he was getting an early jump on the golf season, I'm just sayin'...

Guillaume Latendresse got hurt early in the year, rehabbed for most of the season, and then tried to make a comeback in the latter stages. But when you're trying to go from zero to “team scoring leader” in a situation like that, well, it's just not bound to work out terribly well.

Goaltender Nicklas Backstrom was a top-tier netminder under Jacques Lemaire's defensive system. Under the up-tempo, offensive-minded system of Todd Richards? Not as much. That's not entirely Nick's fault. When you're hung out to dry by sub-par defensive play as many times as he was this year, your stats aren't going to look as good as they otherwise could. But I think it was clear that his play dropped off a bit as well. Whether that was a confidence issue related to the system or not, I'm not sure, but he wasn't the same Nick Backstrom that we're used to seeing.

In the end, I'm not really sure Richards deserved to get fired. He was trying to implement an up-tempo system with a roster full of players who simply aren't capable of playing that style.

That being said, he was never able to adjust his style to one that suited the players he had, and he certainly deserves a fair amount of criticism for that.

He also deserves a bit of heat for the fact that the players that were left at the end of the season, clearly quit. And ultimately, that factor is why I'm not going to raise a huge stink about his firing.

While I'll contend that the primary impetus for his firing was an owner who's concerned about the erosion of his season ticket base, and thinks a new head coach might buy him some time until the roster can be made competitive, I'll go along with it, because I don't think Todd Richards was respected by his players enough to get things turned around.

So where do the Wild stand going into next season?

It's tough to say really. They seem trapped in that no-man's land, where they're just bad enough to miss the playoffs, but they're not SO bad that they end up with a high draft pick that allows them to get a Stamkos, a Crosby, an Ovechkin... or dare I say it? A Gaborik?

(Sorry folks, but he's still the most talented player this franchise has ever had, and as much as I like Koivu, it's not that close.)

I hate to say it, but I really think things are going to have to get a lot worse before they can get better. The recent history of this league shows that you don't become a Stanley Cup contender through free agency. You become one by bottoming out, drafting wisely and developing star players within your organization. While it's true that the Wild's AHL affiliate is one win away from advancing to the AHL's Western Conference Finals, there aren't any players down there that you can look at and say, “there, that guy... he'll be the difference”.

My opinion is, the Wild should deal whatever veterans they can, go young, suck the bag for a couple of years, draft wisely and hope they can construct a contender two or three years from now.

It doesn't seem like that's the way they're going to go, and I dearly hope they prove me wrong. I'm just not going to bet on it.

To add insult to my hockey injury, the Wild are moving their broadcasts up the dial to KFAN. I'm not going to say I'm floored by this move, but I am sincerely disappointed. Especially since the station I work for replaced them with the Minnesota Timberwolves (how many of you knew we still have an NBA team in this state... be honest!).

There's a long story as to how and why that all happened, but it's not for me to tell here. Suffice it to say, I understand why the move was made, and am going to do what I can to talk myself into it. I doubt I'll be terribly successful - especially with an NBA lockout looming - but for the sake of my career, I'm going to try!

Finally,

The Twins got off to their worst start in ages... Yes, the one franchise it seemed we could count on to save us from the sporting gloom that seems to be hanging over this state, has only managed to further deepen said gloom so far this season.

The Twins are currently 12-20, and 9.5 games behind the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians.

I'll give you a moment or two to wrap your head around that concept: the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians.

I've just typed it twice, and I'm still not sure I actually believe it.

So how do I begin to explain what's going on with the Home 9?

I'm not really sure what else to say, except that literally nothing has gone right for this club so far.

They haven't hit well, they haven't pitched well, and they haven't played very good defense.

You can stay competitive if you can manage to be successful in two of those three areas, but when you go 0-for-3? Well, you end up with a 12-20 record after five weeks of games.

The Twins have two things going for them: one, the season is only five weeks old. 32 games in, means there's roughly 4/5ths of the season left to be played. And two, sooner or later, they're going to get healthy and have their full contingent of regulars with which to field a lineup.

Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Jim Thome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka have all spent time on the DL. That's a serious chunk of your offense that's been unavailable for a significant period of time.

The only problem with counting on their return is that the club wasn't exactly lighting up the ol' scoreboard before those guys went out, either. The best hope is that the reasons for their early-season struggles were the precursors to the injuries that led to their absence - i.e. Joe Mauer played like crap because his legs weren't ready to take on the burden of a full-time catcher after his off-season surgery. If that's the case, then taking time off to get healthy will hopefully lead to an offensive resurgence when they return.

If it's not the case... well, I don't want to think that way just yet.

You'll notice, however, that I didn't include any pitchers in that list of missing players. The Twins haven't had any injuries to their starting five. And while the bullpen has had a consistently-revolving door between it and the AAA-affiliate, very few of those changes have been injury-related.

Put simply, the pitching has sucked so far this season. The Twins starters have the second-worst ERA in the American League (only Kansas City's is worse) and the third worse WHIP (Kansas City and Toronto are worse in that category). Basically, the starters are putting a lot of runners on base, and far too many of them are coming around to score.

As for the bullpen? Their ERA and WHIP are both 10th out of the 14 AL teams. So relatively speaking, they haven't been as bad as the starters, but they've sucked plenty all the same.

So while there's reason to hope that the offense will come around, there aren't any easy excuses to point to with the pitching. Even if we can say that it was a mistake to let both Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier go as free agents, that doesn't explain the poor results from the starters.

When the best I can come up with is, “maybe if the boys start scoring some runs, that will take some pressure off the pitchers and they'll get back in their groove” - well, let's just say I'm not going to be selling a lot of hope with that theory.

Oof.

So there you have it folks. Those are the things that stood out to me as I sat and thought about what happened during the six months that I was trying desperately to focus on the job.

What's going to happen over the next six months? I can only hope it won't be quite so depressing!

That journey starts with my next column... the subject and publication date of which are still to be determined... but it's coming... eventually... I promise!

Until next time, thanks for reading!

5-6-11: While I Was Away, Part 1...

2011-05-06T09:00:00.004-05:00

Hello again everybody...

I hate to keep starting blogs with cautions, warnings and explanations, but I also don't want to raise people's expectations too high as I get back into the swing of things here.

Just because I managed to crank out three blogs this week doesn't mean I'll be doing that every week. At least not the in early goings of getting back to writing. After all, there likely would've only been two this week, except for the fact that we had a no-hitter dropped into our midst.

The truth is I'm battling between a couple of writing theories. One says that you should set a schedule and stick to it. Even if you don't have much to say on a given day, sticking to a schedule forces you to stay in the habit of cranking out material on a regular basis, which - according to the theory - helps you get better as a writer.

My own history bears that out to a degree. There have been a number of times where I've sat down in front of a blank screen with no earthly idea what I was going to write about, only to crank out a column that got a lot of positive reaction.

That being said, the second theory encourages a writer to be more organic with their writing. Wait until the spirit moves you and then really focus and crank out something worth reading. Producing nothing, under this premise, is better than producing crap just to say you did something.

It certainly seems to me that there's something to be said here as well. As often as I've managed to crank out something readable after starting with nothing in mind, I've also started columns with a loose idea of what I wanted to do and managed to get sidetracked and ramble off in several nonsensical directions.

Basically I'd like to get more focused in my writing, but I also don't want to get out of the habit and disappear for long stretches of time. So if any of you have thoughts, opinions, or suggestions on how to reconcile these two seemingly opposed notions, please pass them along. I can use all the perspective I can get on this.

But enough of my esoteric babbling. It's time for sports, sports and more sports!

There were plenty of notable sports occurrences over my hiatus. So many in fact, that while I intended to get to them all in a single column, I decided I'll have to break them up into two columns.

I'll get to part one...

Right after the quote!

“When we ask for advice, we are usually looking for an accomplice.”
- Marquis de la Grange (1639-1692), French writer

Whoops! Maybe I should've shared this before asking for “ thoughts, opinions, or suggestions”? Though in that case I would say I'm not looking so much for an accomplice, as a scapegoat, right?!

Time to talk about what happened...

While I Was Away...

The Giants won the World Series... and I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out exactly how.

Look, I'm as big a fan of the old adage “good pitching beats good hitting” as the next guy, but I'm also realistic enough that you have to be able to score some runs at some point to win a World Series.

The Atlanta Braves teams from the early 90's might have had the best run of starting pitching of any franchise in the last 30 years. That's the main reason they went to the World Series five times in that decade. But their inability to score runs in clutch situations is the reason they only won the whole ball of wax once.

So as I look back at the 2010 Giants, I'm still kind of befuddled as to how they managed to win the title.

Remember, this is a club that didn't earn its berth into the post-season until the final week of regular season play. And they needed a significant melt-down by the San Diego Padres to pull that off.

I knew going into the playoffs that they'd be dangerous due to their pitching. Any time you can run Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner out there three games in a row, you're going to give opposing offenses fits.

But as we just got done discussing, you have to score runs - and score them fairly consistently - to win a World Series.

Consider the following numbers... the Giants had exactly one of their regular position players finish with a batting average over .300 - catcher Buster Posey, who was a rookie. They had just two players finish with 20+ home runs (Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe) and none with 30+. Not one of their hitters reached 90 RBI on the season, and only four of their players had what would be considered an “above-average” OPS.

An offensive juggernaut, they certainly weren't.

And yet - as is so often the case - baseball had a surprise for us.

Somehow, some way, the Giants caught fire offensively in the post-season and their bats more than held up their end of the bargain to match the production of their talented pitching staff.

OF Cody Ross, who appeared in only 33 regular season games while posting a .288/.354/.466 line (batting avg./on-base %/slugging %), absolutely exploded in the post-season with a .294/.390/.686 line in 51 at-bats. He hit 5 home runs, 5 doubles and knocked in 10 runs, ranking second amongst all post-season hitters in those categories.

And he wasn't alone in producing for that lineup.

Juan Uribe's line wasn't great (.149/.196/.277), but he had several clutch at-bats, knocking in 9 runs for the Giants. Aubrey Huff plated 8 runs over the course of his 56 at-bats. And Edgar Renteria had an insanely good World Series, hitting .412/.444/.765, while hitting two home runs and knocking in 6 runs in those five games alone, on his way to winning the World Series MVP award.

Sometimes teams just get on a roll and feed off of each other, and as long as you have nothing against them (Red Sox, I'm looking at you) it's a beautiful thing to watch.

The Vikings imploded... and looking back, we probably should've seen it coming... at least to a point.

Look, when your team's season kicks off under the cloud of “Penis-gate”, you probably shouldn't expect a great run that year.

With that being said, I don't know how anyone could've predicted what turned out to be perhaps the goofiest season in the history of professional sports.

A team that finished 12-4 and two plays away from a Super Bowl berth while earning their head coach a contract extension in 2009, managed to bumble their way into a 6-10 record, while getting that same head coach fired in 2010.

We've seen teams fall from grace before, but never quite so spectacularly.

Their highly-paid offensive line sucked. Their highly-paid defensive line was mediocre. Their best wide receiver had hip surgery late in the off-season and was never truly able to get back to his regular form. Their second best receiver fought the symptoms of his migraines all season, going so far as to collapse on the practice field at one point and get taken off by an ambulance.

And then there was the quarterback.

All picture-message-related troubles aside, the All-Pro form he displayed in 2009 was conspicuously lacking in 2010.

Maybe he was distracted by the aforementioned potential legal troubles. Maybe his age finally caught up with him. Maybe, like many a great fighter, he just plain got tired of being hit. Most likely it was a combination of all of those things.

Whatever it was, he was flat awful, and eventually had his consecutive games streak ended due to an injury that quite literally turned his arm purple.

Perhaps the oddest stat of the year: the Minnesota Twins who play 81 home dates, had 1 game postponed due to weather, while the Vikings who play 8 home dates, had two games postponed due to a Snonami that collapsed the Metrodome roof. One of which got moved to Detroit of all places, while the other was played at TCF Bank Stadium (home of the Gophers) which is in no way, shape, or form designed to host a game in late December.

Throw in the game in Philadelphia that went from a Sunday game to a Tuesday game due to inclement weather there, and you start to understand just how goofy that season really was.

The Badgers lost the Rose Bowl... which sucked, but - at least for me - didn't ruin what was an otherwise fantastic season.

Regular readers know that I had all sorts of trepidation going into the 2010 college football campaign. I knew that Bucky had some talent, and enough experience that if things fell their way, they could be dangerous.

But I also had some serious concerns. Their quarterback was still something of a question mark. Their running backs had all sorts of trouble holding on to the ball the previous season. And their defense, while having some talented players, was also prone to giving up too many big plays.

They got off to their usual solid start, steamrolling their non-conference competition. Then immediately confirmed my concerns in a 34-24 loss at Michigan State. They turned over the ball at critical junctures and gave up far too many big plays to an offense that wasn't exactly a juggernaut.

Little did I realize at the time, that would be their only regular season blemish.

They were able to even their conference record the following week thanks to the ever-woeful Gophers, and took that 1-1 record into a showdown against Ohio State the week after that, in a night game at home in the friendly confines of Camp Randall Stadium.

I was actually in Lincoln, Nebraska, that weekend to see the Cornhuskers lay an egg against the Texas Longhorns. (I'm not being disrespectful when I say that - the Huskers are in the Big Ten now - mild jabs are to be expected!)

Thanks to the fact that Wisconsin vs. Ohio State was a night game, I was still able to catch most of it.

Night games at Camp Randall are always a little odd. I don't mean that in a negative way. There's just an entirely different energy in the stadium at night. And if that energy gets rolling in a positive direction, look out. The Buckeyes fought back from an early deficit, but the Cardinal and White had the mojo that night (rhyme only slightly intended), and they rode it to 41-23 win.

That win started a roll the likes of which I've never seen from the Badgers.

They went to the traditionally unfriendly confines of Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City and eked out a 31-30 win over the Hawkeyes. They handled Purdue on the road, 34-13. They obliterated Indiana at home in an 82-20 drubbing. They went to the Big House and laid a 48-28 whipping on the Wolverines. They came back home to crush Northwestern 70-23 and in so doing earned their first trip to Pasadena since 1999.

Sadly, that trip didn't have the happy ending that Wisconsin fans hoped for.

Don't get me wrong, it was a fantastic game. A 21-19 loss to the team that finished the season ranked second in the country behind only the National Champion Auburn Tigers isn't anything to sneeze at.

But it was the missed opportunities for the Badgers that left a bad taste in the fans' mouths.

A missed 39-yard field goal in the second quarter came back to haunt the Badgers. Kickers are bound to miss kicks sooner or later, but they don't usually miss kicks shorter than 40 yards. And to do it in the biggest game of the year is rather unfortunate timing.

Then there was the two-point conversion at the end of the game.

Wisconsin had just completed a fantastic drive with a 4-yard Montee Ball touchdown run to get them within two points of TCU. Obviously the kick team wasn't going to take the field.

But then the offense went and did a funny thing: they lined up in the shotgun formation. It was a head-scratcher of a move at the time, because lining up like that basically told TCU that Wisconsin was throwing the ball, when clearly their best weapon all day had been the run.

While I understand the criticism that was heaped on head coach Brett Bielema and offensive coordinator Paul Chryst for that move, ultimately I was good with it.

Running a two-point conversion isn't the same as running a play in an ordinary series. Two-point plays are designed very specifically to confuse defenses in such a way as to make gaining two yards (all that's required on that play) fairly simple. And the design of the play that the Badgers ran would've done exactly that if not for a great play by TCU linebacker Tank Carder.

Badger QB Scott Tolzien lined his guys up, recognized that Carder was coming on the blitz, and knew that meant he'd have TE Jacob Pederson wide open in the end zone. The play developed exactly as expected, right up until the point where Tolzien committed to pulling the trigger.

Just as he set his feet to throw, Carder recognized that he wasn't going to get to Tolzien in time to hit him, stopped his rush, and jumped straight up in the air, knocking down the pass and sealing the win for TCU.

To this day, I'll argue that the play call was just fine. The receiver was open, the quarterback was in position to get him the ball. If the blocker had been able to get Carder to the ground, or if Tolzien had been able to take one extra sidestep before he delivered the ball, that game goes to overtime and perhaps I'm writing about yet another Badger Rose Bowl victory (let us not forget they've won three of the last four they've played in).

But neither of those things happened. Sometimes you draw up a play, and a defender makes a great play to stop you. After getting over the initial sting of the loss, I was able to tip my hat to Tank Carder and the TCU Horned Frogs and enjoy the fact that my favorite college football team had an excellent year.

Those weren't the only things that happened while I was away. I'll get to the rest next week!

In the interim, I hope you all have a safe and enjoyable weekend.

Until next time, thanks for reading!

5-4-11: The No-No-Ness Of It All...

2011-05-04T10:33:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Regular readers will recall the number of times I announced a plan for a future column only to have it blown out of the water by circumstances entirely beyond my control.

Today's column is yet another example of one I never planned to write.

I had every intention of waiting until today to pen a “While I Was Gone” column for publication on Thursday. That may not happen until Friday now. We'll see...

I say that because the way these things go, I'll get it all written out and there'll end up being three perfect games thrown Thursday night, or something equally as unlikely.

You just never know!

So what happened to blow up my initial plans? Well if you don't already know, I'm a little disappointed in you... but only a little.

I'll tell you all about it...

Right after the quote!

“If I knew he was gonna pitch a no-hitter, I'd a thrown one too.”
- Dizzy Dean, after his brother Daffy pitched a no-hitter in 1934 for the St. Louis Cardinals

They're nicknames people... it's baseball, what can I say?!

The No-No-Ness Of It All...

Going into last night, the Twins had lost six straight games, being swept in two straight series by the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals.

Yes, those Kansas City Royals.

Needless to say, it was another low point in a season that's been full of them.

But one of the reasons I love baseball so much is that just when you think you've got it figured out, it manages to surprise you.

Francisco Liriano came into last night with a 1-4 record, a gaudy 9.13 ERA and an ugly 1.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

His control was poor. His pitch selection was questionable. And his mental toughness was as much of a question mark as it had ever been.

There were strong rumors coming out of the manager's office that another poor start would result in Francisco heading to the bullpen in favor of Kevin Slowey who's about ready to return to the big club after a rehab assignment.

That's how bad he's been. Gardenhire was basically saying, “we'd rather start a guy who couldn't win a job coming out of Spring Training, than you.”

Ouch.

Last night's opponent was the Chicago White Sox. Definitely amongst the Top 5 of my “Teams I Wouldn't Mind Losing In A Tragic Plane Crash”.

Harsh? Yes. But true.

The White Sox have been almost as bad as the Twins so far this season. While the Twins went into last night with by far the worst run differential in the majors (-64), the White Sox had the third-worst in the bigs, and second worst in the AL (-32).

Something, clearly, had to give.

When I say that, I mean that I figured one of the teams would have a breakout night offensively, while the other drank heavily.

I certainly didn't expect a 1-0 pitchers duel with a no-hitter involved!

That's right. In his 95th start as a major league pitcher, Twins lefty Francisco Liriano not only pitched his first career complete game, but also retired 27 White Sox hitters without surrendering a base hit.

And as with most no-hitters, it came with plenty of drama.

Jason Kubel plated the only run of the game - himself - with a solo home run in the fourth. It was nice to see the Twins finally grab a lead, though it was far from obvious that his big-fly would end up being the game-winning RBI.

In the seventh inning, Danny Valencia made a brilliant back-handed stop of a Carlos Quentin smash down the third base line, and made a long throw to first to nip Quentin by a hair.

In the eighth, Liriano issued one of his six walks (soooo close to a perfect game... you know... or not), but got Gordon Beckham to ground into a 5-4-3 double play - sort of - to preserve the no-hitter.

Why “sort of”, you ask? Well Alexi Casilla's throw to first base pulled Justin Morneau off the bag, so Justin had to do the spinning-tag bit... only he missed... and it wasn't that close.

I think I can speak for Morneau when I say, if you're going to miss that tag, then it's advisable that you miss it with the runner between you and the first base umpire. That way, maybe he'll give you the benefit of the doubt and call the guy out, which is exactly what happened.

What's that you say? Where's my outrage? Where's the screaming and hollering about a “tainted” no-hitter?

Two things...

One, if the call had been made correctly, it would've been scored as a Fielder's Choice, so the no-hitter would've remained intact. Yes, it would've allowed another hitter to come to the plate, but that hitter would've been Brent Morel, who was hitting .194 coming into that game.

It's just a guess, but I think the no-no would've continued on unblemished.

Two, Liriano's on my club. If a guy's on your favorite team and he gets a favorable call, you don't question it. You remember all of the ridiculously bad calls that didn't go your way (Phil Cuzzi, I'm looking at you) and chalk it up to the baseball gods evening things out.

So pardon me if I ignore anyone who suggests that Frankie's no-hitter was something other than legit. Sorry, you'll have to come up with something more egregious than that!

As no-hitters go, it certainly wasn't a dominant performance by Liriano. The aforementioned six walks were accompanied by only two strikeouts (bye-bye 1.00 K/BB ratio). He threw 123 pitches, but only 66 for strikes.

The truth is, if he hadn't had the no-hitter going, he likely would've been out of the game after the 7th or 8th inning.

But he did have that no-no going, and he deserves all due credit for it.

His control struggles were more pronounced early on in the game. During the middle innings, however, he found some control with his change-up and was able to mix in his nasty slider and enough fastballs to keep hitters honest.

Sometimes that's all it takes. He's not going to win a Cy Young with the stuff he had last night, but if he manages to learn something about adjusting as the game goes along, maybe he can start to turn his season around.

I'm even tempted to suggest that perhaps something as rare as a no-hitter could help turn the entire club's season around, but that might be wishful thinking.

It was great to see the boys finally start playing defense like they're capable of, so that's encouraging.

But the offense is still woeful. Unless this club starts figuring out ways to string together multiple quality at-bats, last night will remain merely a brief bright spot in an otherwise dismal spring.

Remember, the no-hitter was great, but the club's run differential went from -64 to -63.

Yeah, there's still a long way to go.

That's going to wrap things up for today. I still have my notes for my “While I Was Away” column standing by, so perhaps I'll get a chance to throw that together before the end of the week.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

5-2-11: I'm Baaaaaaaack...

2011-05-02T08:00:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Wow, does it feel good to type those words again!

I actually debated between two separate titles for this post. It was either what you see above, or “Where The Hell Have I Been?!”

Both accomplished the task of announcing my return to writing, and while the latter did a better job of portending a pending explanation of why it's been so long since I've written, I decided the former was the way to go because it just sounded more positive to me.

That's really what the point of this post is going to be all about: positivity.

And I'll get to said positivity...

Right after the quote...

“My blogging might be spotty at best. At least for the foreseeable future...”
*- Dan Cook (1974 - ), written October 29th, 2010

I wrote that (or something to that effect) in the email I sent out announcing why there was not going to be a post that day, over six months ago. What you're reading today is the first thing I've written since then.

Why? Well I'm glad you asked. Because that's the point of a column I like to call...

I'm Baaaaaaaack

As I mentioned earlier, the subtitle to today's column is: “Where The Hell Have I Been?”

Six months ago (or there about) I was offered the opportunity at an interim-producer position at WCCO Radio.

What the devil is an “interim-producer”, you ask? Well basically, one of the full-time producers flaked-out, so they needed someone to fill the spot until they could figure out if he was going to be replaced, how he was going to be replaced, and/or when he was going to be replaced.

As is the nature of such things, that took six months to figure out.

In that time I was given the opportunity to try my hand at producing, to see if I liked it, and to see if the bosses liked me in that position. It was going to take a lot of work and effort, and I knew that writing my blog would have to take a back seat. I didn't realize at the time it was going to be in the “way-far-back”, but I knew the job would affect my writing none-the-less.

I was more than a little nervous about the opportunity. I'd tried producing on a very limited basis in the past and combined with what I'd seen other producers go through, I knew it was going to be a challenge.

I look back now on that nervousness and chuckle because the real truth is, I had no earthly idea just how much of a challenge it was going to be, but I was nervous just the same.

I didn't really know if producing was something I had the tools for, if it was something I'd be good at, or if it was even something I really wanted to do. But I was told by several people - and eventually grew to agree with them - that there wasn't ever going to be a better opportunity to give it a go than right there, and right then.

So on Friday, October 29th, 2010, I became the interim-producer of The Chad Hartman Show.

Chad's a terrific individual. He knows the business, works hard at his craft and has a very strong idea of who he is and what he wants to do. In most respects, those things made the job easier for me than it would've been with some other hosts.

Chad does a ton of the creative legwork for his show. Mostly, what was left for me was to execute his ideas: try to get the guests he asked for, post the links on the show's webpage that he passed along, etc.

That helped me out a ton, since what I was most worried about was generating ideas for the show. I'd never been asked to do that on a daily basis before, and was concerned that I wasn't going to be able to generate enough to justify being the full-time producer.

In the end, that concern turned out to be more than justified.

You see, while Chad does the great majority of the creative work for the show, he does need a producer to pitch in with some ideas. And in large part, that's what tripped me up in trying to do the job.

I've always had a talent for mimicry.

Show me something, let me practice it, repeat it a few dozen times, and I'll crank that process out for you as many times as you like.

What I've never really had talent for is generating something that's completely original.

That admission will surprise some who'll try to point out that music I've written and recorded surely counts as “generating something original”.

The problem is, even in that, I can show you patterns and progressions that I've copied and regurgitated from other artists. I've never come up with a truly original or ingenious chord progression. The lyrics I've written aren't stunningly poetic in nature.

Hell, even in this blog, I could say the same thing. Sure I can turn a phrase here or there. Yes, I've had some near-epic rants about things I have a passion for. But all of the regular segments I've had over the years are based on things I've seen other writers do, and tried to adapt to something that worked for me. Many of the opinions I've espoused have been formed and colored by the people I've been fortunate enough to work with, rather than being truly original.

(Except for my unrelenting Red Sox hatred. That's mine, and mine alone, and you can't have it! Well, actually, you're welcome to share it. Just don't try to take it away from me!)

Before you get the wrong idea, understand that I don't say any of this to knock myself. Far from it.

I thoroughly enjoy playing and writing music, as well as writing this blog. I just don't pretend that what I'm doing is highly artistic, or even within the same realm as those who do these things on a professional basis.

But I've digressed.

My larger point is, generating ideas for a talk show on a day-to-day basis is hard. Really hard. And eventually it caught up to me.

Over the six months there were a lot of high points. I got to meet and talk with all sorts of celebrities and politicians.

Supermodel Niki Taylor came in-studio and called me “a very handsome man”. Yes, I saved that audio.

I got to talk with filmmakers like Kevin Smith (“Clerks”, “Dogma”, and the highly under-rated “Jay And Silent Bob Strike Back”) and Morgan Spurlock (“Super-Size Me” and “The Greatest Movie Ever Sold”).

There was one day where I booked Ryan Crocker, who was recently named to his sixth post as an Ambassador for The United States of America - this time to Afghanistan, as well as the former Editor-in-Chief of the National Enquirer - and the guy who helped publish the story that torpedoed John Edwards' political career, all in the same show.

I've booked both US Senators from Minnesota, 2/3 of the Congressional delegation, four governors (three former, and one current), as well as a former Senator from Wyoming who happened to co-chair the president's commission on the national debt, and also gave us so much material that the only person who has more audio cuts under his name in our system is Charlie Sheen. Although to be fair, Donald Trump is making a late push for that lead.

We did shows live from the Mall of America, Rosedale and Keiran's Irish Pub in downtown Minneapolis ahead of this year's Twins Home Opener, which I attended immediately following the show.

If all of this sounds pretty cool, well, you're not going to get any argument from me. It was.

Unfortunately, the process that surrounded it was a daily grind that I was woefully unprepared for - and the jury's still out on whether I'm ever going to be fit for it.

I was offered a ton of help from management and other producers, and like I said, Chad did a ton of the heavy lifting. And yet far too often I found myself riddled with anxiety and near-panic over my inability to produce all the elements I was asked to, and really that the job demands.

The best way I can describe it is this: over those 6 months, I dropped two belt notches (and not in the healthy way) and had three times as many sick days as I had in a typical calendar year (all of which were entirely legitimate, despite the good-natured ribbing of some of my colleagues). To put it simply, I wasn't managing the stress very well.

So when it came time for management to decide on a permanent producer for the show, and for me to decide if I really wanted to do it, I went back to my mother's tried-and-true method of making decisions.

I sat down and wrote out all the things that I really enjoyed about being a producer, and all the things that drove me nuts. Then all I had to do was decide which of those two columns out-weighed the other.

And in the end, that wasn't terribly difficult.

I'm not closing the door on being a producer in the future, but for now, it's not the right spot for me.

Working with Chad was an incredibly valuable learning experience. As I implied earlier, whatever it was I thought the job was going to be when I went into it, I'm now blown away by how much I really didn't know.

But I think the truth is that taking that next step in my career is a lot like how Jerry Seinfeld used to describe breaking up with someone:

“...breaking up is like knocking over a coke machine. You can’t do it in one push, you got to rock it back and forth a few times, and then it goes over.”

The brief dalliances I had in the past with producing got the coke machine tipping a little bit. And these last six months had it almost ready to topple.

Hopefully the next time I get an opportunity, I'll really be ready to knock the sumbitch over!

In the meantime, I'm going to spend the next couple of days assisting the guy they've hired to take on the job full-time get his feet under him and acclimated to where everything is at the station. After that, I go back to my old job of studio coordinating from 12-8pm Monday through Friday.

I'm incredibly lucky like that. A lot of people don't get the chance to try a new job, while maintaining a fairly cushy fall-back position. I don't take that for granted, not the least little bit.

In fact, one of the things I'm most looking forward to is taking the knowledge and experience I've gained over the last six months and applying it to the studio work I was doing before.

In the past, I treated coordinating as a pretty technical position. Just make sure the right buttons got pushed at the right time and keep the bus out of the ditch.

Now, I can take some of the lessons I've learned, contacts I've forged and creative processes I've picked up and apply them in-studio as the three shows I'll be working with (Chad Hartman, Michele Tafoya and Mike Max) go along. But I won't have to worry about the constant pressure of having to have something new every day.

I like to think of it as a “best of both worlds” scenario. And that's why I'm feeling pretty positive about where I'm at.

How does all of this apply to the blog? Well, now that I'm back to my old hours, I'm going to try and get back into some old habits as well. And the first one I want to tackle is writing.

I can't promise that I'll come out of the gate with three posts per week like I used to. And I'm not really sure whether all the previous “segments” I came to rely on will reappear. All of those things are still being evaluated and considered.

But in the end, my goal is to get back to ranting and raving a little bit. I fully intend to use this space to spew some of my frustrations and celebrate the joy I find in watching and reveling in the world of sports.

Hopefully you get back into the groove of enjoying the ride with me.

That journey starts again later this week (notice how I'm not promising which day?) when I try to get caught up with a few things... you know, what's been happening while I've been away?

That's later this week.

Until then, thanks for reading!

10-27-10: 2010 College Football Picks, Week 9

2010-10-27T10:09:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

The World Series kicks off tonight. Lincecum versus Lee. The Fall Classic. Am I excited? Yeah, just a little bit.

If you missed Monday's column, I broke down what the two clubs need to do to win it all there, so go check it out before first pitch tonight.

People keep saying that the ratings are going to be down due to smaller markets being involved, and initially, they'll probably be right. But if these two clubs go six or seven games, and the drama builds as the Series goes along, it could be something really special.

First pitch is at 6:57pm central time, on Fox network. Check your local listings.

Today, however, the focus here is on college football. We have picks to review from last week and picks to make for the weekend to come.

And we'll get to those...

Right after the quote.

“It is a great ability to be able to conceal one's ability.”
- Francois de La Rochefoucauld (1613 - 1680), French author

Think I suck at making college football picks? Perhaps I'm just skilled at concealing my ability!

Perhaps...

2010 College Football Picks, Week 9

As usual, we begin this week by reviewing my picks from last week. First up, the games I looked at, but took a pass on...

Iowa -5.5 vs. Wisconsin: Final Score - Wisconsin 31, Iowa 30

Oh happy, happy day. I'm usually not thrilled to be wrong, but when I'm wrong on a pick I took a pass on, and it benefits my favorite football team? It doesn't get a whole lot sweeter than that! I'll talk more about the game itself on Friday in the DFTU, but suffice it to say that I hope Badger coach Bret Bielema adds Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz to his Christmas card list. Thanks for taking that TO coach! We really appreciate it. Thanks, signed Badger Fans everywhere.

Nebraska -5.5 at Oklahoma State: Final Score - Nebraska 51, Oklahoma State 41

So Nebraska's offense goes crazy for five weeks, gets completely shut down versus Texas, and then drops a 51-spot on the Cowboys?! How does that work?! I'm not saying they were sandbagging while I was in town, but it bears noting that while Nebraska was ripping its way through the Okie State defense, Texas was getting beaten handily at home by Iowa State. I'm not sayin... I'm just sayin...

So I split my two “passes”. That's fair enough. Would I then split my four “real picks”? Let's find out...

First...

Notre Dame -7 at Navy: Final Score - Navy 35, Notre Dame 17

In last week's preview I talked about how I'd gone with Navy in past years, but though this was the year the Irish would turn things around...

Woops.

Navy came out and popped the Golden Domers straight in the mouth with their triple-option, and the Irish never recovered. Notre Dame couldn't get things going offensively and defensively looked like they'd never seen a triple-option offense, even though they play the Midshipmen every year.

I was amongst the optimistic about Brian Kelly taking over the Notre Dame program, but there hasn't been much to feel good about with this club this year. It's early, so Irish fans will have to give him time, but games like this make you wonder if Notre Dame will ever truly be “Notre Dame” again.

0-1, but it's way too early to panic (copyright The Hammer)

Next...

Minnesota +9.5 vs. Penn State: Final Score - Penn State 33, Minnesota 21

Dammit. Thanks a lot, Gophers!

I talk up your ability to cover spreads, you play a club that can't find the endzone with a Garmin and a Shirpa guide, and you lose by 11.

Well done!

Apparently Tim Brewster wasn't the only reason that the Gopher offense is inept and the defense looks like it couldn't tackle Paterno! His assistant coaches picked that pattern up just fine in his absence.

Yeah, I'm a little bitter.

0-2 and hoping things get better in a hurry!

Thirdly...

LSU +6 at Auburn: Final Score - Auburn 24, LSU 17
*- This game was this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

Really? Two and a half points from a push in the Minnesota game, and now I miss this one by one?

At this rate I'm going to be a half-point off in the Oklahoma game!

Crap.

Well at least this was the Flier Pick and I don't have to count it.

Small consolation indeed!

Still 0-2 and needing #1 to come through for me!

Finally...

Oklahoma -3 at Missouri: Final Score - Missouri 36, Oklahoma 27

Well at least it wasn't by a half-point, eh?

Sheesh, what a week!

I didn't catch much of this game, so I can't break it down much. Suffice to say that it's not fun being number one these days.

This is what, three weeks in a row now? Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma.

If I was the Auburn Tigers, I'd be tossing salt over my shoulder all week long!

Are you listening, Auburn? Are you?!

So a 0-3 (.000) week drops my season record to 13-16 (.448). Now I'm going to need some serious weeks in positive territory to get to that mythical .550 mark!

Time to bear down and get it started in...

Week 8

We begin, as always, with games I looked at but decided not to pull the trigger on:

Saturday, 10/30 - Purdue +17.5 at Illinois (11am, BTN):

I know Purdue just got thoroughly whacked by Ohio State last weekend, and that Illinois has been improved this season. But 17.5?! That's a bit much for a team that was 2-0 in the conference until last week, isn't it? Even on the road this is a very juicy number. However, I found other games I liked more, so we're going to take a pass here.

Saturday, 10/30 - Florida +3 vs. Georgia (at Jacksonville, 2:30pm, CBS):

Two clubs that have been marked disappointments this season. Technically this is a home game for Georgia, but seeing as it's being played in the state of Florida, I'd give the Gators de facto home field advantage. Urban Meyer hasn't lost three games in a row since I don't know when. I'll be floored if it gets to four straight this week. I like this pick a lot, but I like others more, so I'll pass.

Saturday, 10/30 - Stanford -7.5 at Washington (6pm, ESPN):

I like the Huskies a lot, but they just don't have enough to hang with Stanford. That being said, 7.5 is a lot for a team like the Cardinal to give on the road and I have a sneaking suspicion that Washington might come up with a cover here. I talked myself into both sides of this pick several times over. That's enough for me to know that it's best to pass.

So if those three games weren't tempting enough, which games were? I'm glad you asked!

As always, were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager... these are the games I'd be betting on:

First...

Saturday, 10/30 - Michigan State +6.5 at Iowa (2:30pm, ABC/ESPN): The Spartans are 8-0 (4-0 in the Big Ten). The Hawkeyes are 5-2 (2-1 in the Big Ten).

Something's up with this line. (Famous last words I know.)

We know that Michigan State has been lucky (fake field goal vs. Notre Dame, fake punt vs. Northwestern), but we also know they're good (10-point win over Wisconsin).

We know Iowa can choke in big games (at Arizona) and can be beat at home (last week vs. Wisconsin).

So how exactly are the Spartans getting 6.5 in this game? See, now if I was smart, I'd say, “I've been befuddled by a line like this before, and have gotten burned nearly every time, so I should go against my instincts and take Iowa and give the points”.

But I'm not that smart. I can certainly see the Hawkeyes winning this game, but I'll be floored if it's a blowout.

I think Michigan State has a serious “it” factor this season. Call it a horseshoe in an uncomfortable location, call it the luck of the “300” - well, I suppose they weren't all that lucky come to think of it. Whatever you want to call it, I think the Spartans can run the table, and I say they pass this test in Iowa on Saturday.

I'll take the 6.5 and hope a MSU win boosts Bucky's BCS ranking!

Next...

Saturday, 10/30 - Missouri +7.5 at Nebraska (2:30pm, ABC/ESPN): The Tigers are 7-0 (3-0 in the Big 12). The Cornhuskers are 6-1 (2-1 in the Big 12).

I'm sorry, Kelley family, but I have to go against you on this one.

Three things the odds-makers are counting on here: one, that we'll be mesmerized by the 51 points that Nebraska dropped on Oklahoma State; two, that we'll count on a let-down by Missouri after their big home win over Oklahoma last week; and three, that we'll over-value home-field advantage for the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska certainly has the ability to score and in a big way. But their offense can also be stymied as I saw in person versus what has to be termed an “average” Texas squad. Missouri's defense was good enough to hang with the number one team in the country. I think they're a touch or two better than Oklahoma State. No way the Huskers score 51 this week.

Do teams sometimes let down after a big win? Sure they do. But the best thing that can happen to a club after a big win at home? Heading right out on the road to take on another highly ranked opponent. I'll point to Wisconsin again here. They beat number one Ohio State at home. Many, including yours truly, thought they'd let down the next week at Iowa. That turned out not to be the case. I think Mizzou comes in to Lincoln focused and ready for another huge game this week

Yes, the Huskers are at home in this one. That's worth three points generally. So the odds-makers think the Huskers are 4.5-points better than the Tigers? I'm not buying it.

I'll compromise with you Kelleys... how about a 3-point win for the Huskers here? You get your win, I get my cover and we both end up happy.

What do you say?

Thirdly...

Saturday, 10/30 - Navy -14 vs. Duke (2:30pm, find a good bar): The Midshipmen are 5-2. The Blue Devils are 1-6 (0-4 in the ACC).

Okay, I know I said I was abandoning the “bet against Duke, no matter the spread” theory weeks ago. But it's not like anything else I've been trying lately has worked well, right?

So combine the fact that I think “Duke” is a Cherokee word that means “we suck at football” with my feeling like I owe Navy one after whiffing on their win over Notre Dame this past weekend, and I'll go ahead and give the 14 and take my chances with the Midshipmen!

Finally...

Saturday, 10/30 - Mississippi +7 vs. Auburn (5:00pm, ESPN): The Rebels are 3-4 (1-3 in the SEC). The Tigers are 8-0 (5-0 in the SEC).
*- This game is this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

Call this the “Number 1's are losing like crazy” theory.

Maybe it's the glare of the national spotlight, maybe it's the pressure of the top spot, maybe I'm doing too many “maybe” trios.

Whatever is going on, #1 in the polls has not been kind of late to the clubs occupying that spot. And this game sets up perfectly for that streak to continue.

Auburn is coming off a big win over LSU and could very well get caught thinking it can cruise past Ole Miss, Chattanooga and Georgia over the next three weeks.

It's that kind of trap that gets teams beat, especially when they're on the road against a coach who's known for mixing things up and quarterback who's got experience.

It's entirely possible that Tiger QB Cam Newton continues his Heisman campaign and runs circles around the Rebel defense like Sheridan did around Early (if anyone can tell me when and where that happened without Googling, you get bonus points!), but I have a gut feeling that Mississippi might pull off the shocker here.

Then again, my gut hasn't been terribly trustworthy of late. That's why we invented the Flier Pick.

So there you have them. Four picks for you to consult as you watch some college pigskin on Saturday. As always, I encourage you to post your thoughts, an counter-picks in the comments section below!

That's going to wrap things up for today. The plan is to be back with a week-ending DFTU column on Friday. Plans, as we know, are always subject to change.

Until next time, thanks for reading!

10-25-10: 2010 MLB Post-Season Mayhem, Part the 3rd

2010-10-25T10:01:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Welcome back to another week. Hope your weekend was as good as mine.

Did I do anything particularly memorable? Not really. But it was relaxing and pretty low-key, and I can't get enough of that.

Oh, and my favorite college football team beat a highly-ranked opponent for the second week in a row, this time on the road!

Be honest, you didn't think you were getting through this column without a Badger Football mention did you?!

I'll save the detailed breakdown for Wednesday or Friday, but suffice to say, the Badgers are now tenth in the latest BCS rankings. I don't think their schedule will allow them to climb up into the top two, even if they win out, but a BCS bowl is now a definite possibility.

Two weeks ago, I'd never have been able to imagine it. Oh, how I love college football!

But as I indicated, college football talk is for later in the week. Today is about baseball.

The World Series participants have been set, and if I had made picks before the LCS's, I'd have been 100% wrong. That's why it's fun to watch, right?

So let's get to the previewing...

Right after the quote.

“The greatest of faults, I should say, is to be conscious of none.”
- Thomas Carlyle (1795 - 1881), Scottish satirical writer, essayist, historian and teacher

Personally, I prefer to be unconscious as a general rule (I likes me some sleep).

MLB Post-Season Mayhem, Part the 3rd

Prior to the LDS's and the LCS's I broke down what teams needed to do to win their respective series, and now that we have our two World Series representatives, it's only reasonable to do one last set of previewing.

I've been asked several times since the Giants clinched the NL pennant who I thought would win the World Series, and the honest truth is I have no idea.

Put a gun to my head and I'll point to “home field” and “good pitching beats good hitting” and say San Francisco, but the truth is, I won't be the least bit surprised if Texas gets one more Ginger Ale bath (copyright Josh Hamilton) as well.

So instead of making a prediction, I'm going to stick to breaking down what both clubs need to do to win a World Championship.

World Series: San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers - The two teams did not meet during the regular season.

What the Giants need to do to win:

To put it simply, the Giants pitching needs to be dominant.

San Francisco has found ways to score runs - more than I'd thought they'd be capable of - but there's no question where their bread is buttered: pitching.

As was the case in their NLDS win, San Francisco won each of their four victories in the NLCS by one run. The Giants aren't going to bludgeon the Rangers to death offensively. That means that the pitching staff that's compiled a post-season 7-3 record, a 2.47 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a 4.13 K/BB ratio has to continue its dominance.

That starts with Tim Lincecum who'll go for San Francisco in Game 1. He's been nothing short of outstanding so far. In his three starts, he's got a 1.96 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP and 5.80 K/BB ratio. His command has been brilliant and he's mixed up his pitches effectively.

But at most, Lincecum will be available for three games in the series (1, 4 and 7 if they push it). That means that Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez have to be great as well.

Cain has yet to surrender a run in the post-season. Along with a 1.02 WHIP and 2.20 K/BB ratio, his numbers can't be argued with. The only potential issue with Cain has been his ability to work deep in games. He's averaged just over 6 IP in his two starts. That's good, but not great. If he can work deeper into games it'll take pressure off the San Francisco bullpen.

Sanchez has the worst numbers of the three - 2.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.17 K/BB - but they're far from awful. Like Cain, however, he's been unable to work deep into games, averaging just over 5 IP per start.

That, of course, brings us to the Giants bullpen. Closer Brian Wilson has been spectacular. He's got five saves in his seven appearances and a 0.00 ERA/0.89 WHIP/3.00 K/BB line is about as good as it gets.

As a whole the Frisco 'pen has a 3.18 ERA/1.13 WHIP/3.50 K/BB line. So if the starters can get into the late innings with a lead, it's going to be awfully hard for Texas to mount a comeback.

Offensively, the Giants' team line of .231/.296/.330 is hardly going to strike fear into Texas' pitching staff.

Cody Ross has been a godsend for San Fran. His line of .324/.395/.794 has clearly carried his club. He's also tied for second in the post-season with 8 RBI. In fact, that number doubles the next best batter on his own club (Pat Burrell - 4). His 1.189 OPS is over 400 points better than the next two batters on his club (Burrell .737, Buster Posey .723).

Did I mention that Ross was waived by the Marlins earlier this year? Talk about your all-time career resurrections!

Can he keep those numbers up? If San Francisco's going to hoist the hardware, he'll likely have to. Either that, or some other guys are going to have to step up in a big way to help him out.

If the Giants can keep finding enough offense, and their pitching remains dominant, they can win the World Series.

What the Rangers need to do to win:

As good as San Francisco has been in terms of pitching, Texas has been in terms of offense.

They lead the majors in every post-season batting category imaginable: .281 BA, .337 OBP, .478 SLG, .815 OPS, 59 runs, 107 hits, 22 doubles, 17 home runs, 182 total bases, 55 RBI. Every single one of them is the best in the post-season.

They've yet to face a pitching staff like San Francisco's, however. They'll need to find a way to get to the Giants starters early and often, use up San Francisco's bullpen early and force them into match-ups favorable to the Rangers.

Nelson Cruz has been huge for Texas so far. He leads baseball in post-season home runs (5), slugging percentage (.875) and OPS (1.294). Presumptive AL MVP Josh Hamilton hasn't hit that often (.231 BA), but when he has, he's made them count - 4 home runs, 8 RBI, .975 OPS. Ian Kinsler's been fantastic offensively as well. He leads baseball in RBI (9) and is in the top 10 in OPS (1.067).

In fact, the only batter that's been a disappointment for Texas so far has been their DH, Vlad Guerrero (.616 OPS).

Texas will need that kind of solid, balanced production from it's line-up if it's going to handle the Giants pitching.

As a team, the Rangers have amassed more-than-respectable pitching numbers - 2.76 ERA/1.14 WHIP/2.89 K/BB. Those numbers aren't as good as San Francisco's, but then again, nobody's are.

Texas' pitching doesn't have to be better than the Giants', it just has be be good enough.

For the Rangers, everything begins with staff ace, Cliff Lee. As great as Tim Lincecum's been for the Giants, Lee has been better for the Rangers.

In his three starts, Lee's put together a line of 0.75 ERA/0.58 WHIP/34.00 K/BB. In each statistic, he's been better than Lincecum (and that K/BB number is just downright filthy). He's also worked late into games, averaging eight innings per start.

The only edge I can give Lincecum is that I *know* he'll go three times if necessary (1, 4 & 7). I can't say that about Lee. Lee had the opportunity to go on short rest against the Rays, and passed. For a starter to make three starts in a seven game series, short rest is a given. Will Lee step up if needed? I honestly don't know.

After Lee, Texas leans on Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson. Lewis has been good, Wilson has struggled a bit.

Lewis' line over three starts: 1.45 ERA/1.18 WHIP/1.64 K/BB.

Wilson's line over three starts: 3.93 ERA/1.20 WHIP/1.63 K/BB.

Both have averaged just over six IP per start

Those numbers are okay, and if Texas' offense continues to knock the cover off the ball, they'll be good enough to win. But if the offense slows down - as they very well might against the Giants' pitching - then Lewis and Wilson will have to be better to keep the Rangers in the series.

That brings us to the Rangers' bullpen. Their line of 3.64 ERA/1.45 WHIP/1.76 K/BB doesn't knock you over, but it's hardly alarming either.

Texas closer Neftali Feliz has been great, and the nerves you might expect from a rookie closer in his first playoff run have not been at all evident. He's yet to record a save, but that's because he hasn't been given the opportunity. Every single game Texas has won in this post-season has been by four runs or more, so while Feliz has gotten work in, it hasn't been while trying to nail down a close game.

Will that come into play in the World Series? As good as San Francisco has been on the mound, you'd certainly think so.

If Texas can keep the offense rolling, and their pitching doesn't regress, they can win the World Series.

So there you have them. My case for both clubs to win the world series. I know this won't be the ratings-bonanza that Philly/New York would've been, but it has the potential to be a memorable Fall Classic.

San Francisco vs. Texas. Great pitching vs. great hitting. The unmovable object vs. the irresistible force.

Game 1 is Wednesday night on Fox. Check your local listings and enjoy the wonder of the World Series!

That's going to wrap things up for today. The plan is to have the standard college football column up on Wednesday. But as you all know, plans are subject to change!

Until next time, thanks for reading!

10-22-10 DFTU

2010-10-22T10:06:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

We've made it through another week!

Okay, okay, it was a short one for me. Actually it was back-to-back short weeks now that I think about it. You have to love four-day weekends, no?

Anyway, the weekend is nigh, and that means it's time to catch up on the current states of my favorite teams.

And we'll get to that... right after the quote.

“An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows.”
- Dwight D. Eisenhower (1890 - 1969), Supreme Allied Commander and 34th President of the United States

Ummm... no comment?

It's time... once again... for everybody's favorite segment...

Dan's Favorite Teams Update

Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers are 6-1 (2-1) and tied for fourth in the Big Ten.

I wrote it on Wednesday, but I liked it so much I wanted to write it again...

“Down goes Brutus... down goes Brutus... down goes Brutus!!!”

Outside of the third quarter, the Badgers completely dominated the #1 ranked Buckeyes. In fact, that might've been the most complete effort I've seen out of Wisconsin against a highly-ranked opponent since the Rose Bowl years.

I thought offensive coordinator Paul Chryst called nearly a perfect game. When Ohio State packed the box to stop the run, he called high-percentage pass plays, and when they loosened up to stop the passing game, he sent John Clay out to punish them and James White out to blow by them.

Put simply, wins don't get any better than that.

Lost in the shuffle of the big win over Ohio State is that the victory officially made the Badgers bowl eligible. Granted, being bowl eligible is something that's expected with Wisconsin football these days, but it's still nice to see that they've accomplished the feat in only seven games.

The next goal for the Badgers? Winning the Big Ten. After the loss to Michigan State, I thought it was a pipe-dream, but now? It's in play. If - and this is a big “if” - they can find a way to beat Iowa on the road on Saturday.

The three teams ahead of Wisconsin in the conference right now are Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue. We know the Boilermakers are going to lose some games, so I feel fine writing them off. If the Badgers can beat the Hawkeyes, they own the tie-breaker there. Then they'll need help with somebody beating the Spartans a couple of times and boom, there's your Big Ten title.

What about the rest of the Badgers' schedule? After Iowa it's: at Purdue, vs. Indiana, at Michigan, and vs. Northwestern. You can never assume wins in the Big Ten, but it's safe to say all of those games are very winnable.

Does this club have Rose Bowl potential? Perhaps. It's dangerous to speculate about these things this early, but after beating #1, I think the karma gods will allow me a little leeway!

One thing's for sure, we'll have a far better idea after Saturday. Iowa is a quality football team, and the Badgers have not looked especially good on the road so far this season.

They won't feel any more confident than they do now though, so I'm really looking forward to seeing what they can do at Kinnick Stadium!

Kickoff between the Badgers and Hawkeyes is set for 2:30pm central time on ABC/ESPN. Check your local listings.

Minnesota Wild: The Wild are 3-2-1, good for 7 points. They're currently in second place in the Northwest Division.

Two wins in a row!

Okay, so last night's 4-2 road win in Edmonton was hardly a thing of beauty, but over the course of 82 games, you're going to have some clunkers. If you want to be a playoff team you have to find a way to win some of those ugly games, even if they're on the road.

First, let's go back to Tuesday night when the Wild dominated the Vancouver Canucks in a 6-2 win. Sadly, the game was marred by the Rick Rypien incident and the win got over-shadowed. Others have covered what happened far better than I could. If you're unfamiliar with the story, you can check it out on The Hammer's new blog: Between Blue Lines. He does a nice job breaking it down.

Instead, I'm going to focus on the fact that the Wild completely dismantled a Canucks squad that many (including the Hammer) predict will go deep into the playoffs this season. One game doesn't prove much, other than the fact that the Wild do have the talent to hang with the upper-echelon clubs in the NHL on any given night. The key going forward is to put out that kind of effort consistently.

As head coach Todd Richards put it in the post game press conference, if you can't string 3 and 4-game winning streaks together, then dominating one game like that doesn't mean much.

The Wild followed that game up with the aforementioned 4-2 win last night in Edmonton.

In the game, the Wild were out-shot 33-22, and gave up 10 power-play opportunities to the Oilers. Both of Edmonton's goals came with the man advantage. The Wild clearly out-played the Oil 5-on-5, but they won't win many games giving the other club that many power-plays.

So if Richards wanted a consistent effort after the big win against Vancouver, did he get it? It's tough to say. I asked the beat writer for the Star Tribune Mike Russo (if you like hockey and aren't reading his stuff regularly, shame on you) if Richards would consider this game to be that “consistent effort” or just “damned lucky”... he responded with “damned lucky”. Clearly, I'm willing to defer to him on the subject.

Like I said earlier, sometimes you have to take an ugly win and move on. For the Wild that meant hopping on a plane immediately following the Oilers game and heading out to Vancouver where they'll face the Canucks for the second time in four days, this time on the road.

So we'll see what kind of effort Minnesota puts out tonight. If they're on their game like they were on Tuesday, then maybe things have finally started to turn around for the Wild. If not? Well, let's cross that bridge when we get to it, shall we?

Tonight will also likely mark the first start for the Wild's most recent free agent signee, goaltender Jose Theodore. After Josh Harding went down with his knee injury in the pre-season, the Wild looked around for an experienced back-up. Nikolas Backstrom's a solid starter, but he's had injury issues in the past, and the Wild didn't want to be left with Anton Khudobin as their starter if Backs had to miss any serious time.

Enter, Theodore. Jose is a 10-year veteran in the NHL with a Hart and Vezina trophy to his credit (both in 2002 in Montreal). He's not going to play at that level over the course of a full season again, but as a back-up, he's got a solid resume.

Tonight, then, becomes a big game in a lot of ways. Win it with a solid effort, and the Wild take over first place in the division for the first time since Chuck Fletcher and Todd Richards took over the reins of the franchise. Lose it with a poor effort, and we're right back to wondering if this club's capable of competing on a night-in and night-out basis.

Puck-drop is at 9pm central time. Check your local listings.

After the game in Vancouver, the Wild return home for a healthy five-game home stand. Former Wild standout Willie Mitchell and the L.A. Kings visit Monday night, Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals come in on Thursday night.

That's going to wrap things up for this week. Enjoy your weekend, stay safe, relax... do whatever it is you do.

Then check back on Monday to see if I was able to cobble anything together from the weekend!

Until next time, thanks for reading!

10-20-10: 2010 College Football Picks, Week 8

2010-10-20T23:03:00.004-05:00

Hello again everybody...

I know the apologies are getting old, but I have an honest to goodness explanation as to why this column is getting up late.

When I wrote on Monday that I'd have this column up as usual on Wednesday, I failed to take into account my plans to attend the Wild/Canucks game on Tuesday night at the same time I'd usually be writing for Wednesday.

So instead of cranking out today's column, I was putting together this game story and these cuts from the post-game coach's press conference. Feel free to check them out.

So that's that. Sorry for the lateness, but trust me, it was for a good cause. I promise!

My picks may have been delayed, but they'll never be denied! Let's get to them, then...

Right after the quote.

“It takes too much energy to be against something unless it's really important.”
- Madeleine L'Engle (1918 - 2007), American writer

What could be more important than college football? Um... well... I'll get back to you on that!

2010 College Football Picks: Week 8

As per usual, we begin each week by reviewing last week's picks. First up the games I looked at, but decided to take a pass on...

Arizona -23.5 at Washington State: Final Score - Arizona 24, WASU 7

I said I wouldn't be surprised if this one covers, so count me as pleasantly surprised that it didn't, and glad I took a pass. I really don't know what to make of Arizona at this point. They've looked really good at times, and really average at other times. If they really wanted to be taken seriously on the national stage, then this was a game that should've been a blowout. A lot of people contend that the Pac 10 is the best conference in college football this year. Outside of Oregon, I'm not sure if it's anything more than a bunch of mediocre teams and one terrible one.

Nebraska -9.5 vs. Texas: Final Score - Texas 20, Nebraska 13

Whew!!!

I described to you on Monday what happened in this game, so I won't rehash it too much here. Suffice to say, I'm more than a little glad that I took a pass here. If I'd gotten this one wrong... I shudder to think how long I'd have had to hear about it!

So both my passes failed to cover. That means I must have had a decent week on the games I did pick, right?

Let's find out!

First...

California +2.5 at USC: Final Score - USC 48, California 14

Thanks a freaking lot, Tafoya!

I pimp your “sturdy” Golden Bears and talk about how this was their best shot by far to knock off the Trojans and instead of coming through for me, they appear to be about as sturdy as that fort I built out of scrap wood when I was 12.

I still have some splinters in an unfortunate location if you know what I mean!

I'm officially writing off Cal for the rest of the 2010 season.

Can't trust 'em. Can't pick 'em. Can't do it! (copyright Mike Singletary).

0-1 and hoping for a comeback!

Next...

Iowa -3.5 at Michigan: Final Score - Iowa 38, Michigan 28

That's more like it!

Actually, I can't take a ton of credit for this one. 3.5 was way too small a number here.

Michigan is still slightly over-rated based on the hot start they (read: Denard Robinson) had to begin the season. Now teams with quality defenses have figured out that if you surround Robinson and force him to try and throw over the top of you, Michigan's offense stalls out in a hurry.

If Iowa hadn't blown their opportunity against what turns out to be only a slightly-above-average Arizona team, they'd be a top-3 BCS team right now. They have the potential to be exactly that good.

Needless to say, despite beating #1 last week, I'm terrified that Wisconsin has to travel to face the Hawkeyes this weekend!

1-1 and back on the winning track!

Idaho -1.5 at Louisiana Tech: Final Score - Louisiana Tech 48, Idaho 35
*- This game was this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

So much for the Flier Pick winning streak. So much for my theory on following a flip-flopping line.

Obviously I didn't see a second of this one. And since Flier Picks don't count unless I win, I'm not going to spend a whole lot more time talking about it!

Still 1-1 and just hoping to get out of here with a +.500 record.

Finally...

Ohio State -4 at Wisconsin: Final Score - Wisconsin 31, Ohio State 18

Yes! Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes!!!

But Dan, you blew this pick, why are you celebrating?

I don't care! I've never been happier to be wrong! We beat #1! Down goes Brutus, down goes Brutus, down goes Brutus!!!

The one bit of wiggle room I left myself last week was noting that goofy things happen at Camp Randall during night games.

I had no clue that would start on the opening kickoff when David Gilreath housed it for a Badger touchdown, but I was obviously quite pleased.

I ripped Brett Bielema for his classless two-point conversion call against Minnesota, and I stand by that. But if I'm willing to rip him, then to be fair, I have to be willing to praise him, and there's no question he had his team as well prepared for the Ohio State game as a team could be.

Wisconsin flat-out dominated the first half, and when OSU came out blazing in the third quarter, the Badgers didn't panic, didn't fall apart, didn't go to pieces. They hung with their game plan, executed and pulled away in the later stages of the game.

(Memo to Gopher fans: these are the things a quality football coach inspires in his club. You might want to take that into account in your current coaching search. I'm just sayin...)

So I finished the seventh week of the season 1-2 (.333). Dammit.

That makes me 13-13 (.500) for the season. Not great, but not lousy. I still can't seem to get on a multi-week winning streak, but that's not going to stop me from trying to get over the .550 hump!

That quest continues in...

Week 8

We begin, as usual, with the games I looked at, but ultimately decided to pass on...

Saturday, 10/23 - Iowa -5.5 vs. Wisconsin (2:30pm, ABC):

I said earlier that I'm completely terrified for Wisconsin in this game. They just played their most effective, disciplined game of the year and beat the then #1 team in the nation. I don't want that awesomeness to end after just one week! So I'm going to take a pass on this one and pray to the college football gods that my gut-feeling about the Badgers' chances is wrong for the second week in a row!

Saturday, 10/23 - Nebraska -5.5 at Oklahoma State (2:30pm, ABC/ESPN):

After Cornhusker Nation was kindly enough to host me last weekend, I'm going to do them the favor of passing on this game. Honestly, I have no clue how this one's going to go. If the Nebraska team that dominated in the first five weeks shows up, they cover. If the team I watched this past Saturday takes the field? I shudder to think what the consequences could be. I'll pass thank you...

So if those two games didn't make the cut, which ones did? I'm so glad you asked!

As always, were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager... these are the games I'd be betting on:

First...

Saturday, 10/23 - Notre Dame -7 at Navy (11am, CBS): The Fighting Irish are 4-3. The Midshipmen are 4-2.

Two years in a row, I've picked the Midshipmen to cover the spread against Notre Dame and two years in a row I've been rewarded.

So why vary from that formula? Simple. Despite the mediocre record, I think the Irish finally have a quality head coach who's more than capable of scheming against Navy's triple-option offense.

As long as Notre Dame comes out ready to play and doesn't get spooked by the unique atmosphere in Annapolis, I think the Irish cover here.

Next...

Saturday, 10/23 - Minnesota +9.5 vs. Penn State (11am, ESPNU): The Gophers are 1-6 (0-3 in the Big Ten). The Nitanny Lions are 3-3 (0-2 in the Big Ten).

Yeah, that's right, I'm passing on the Badger game and picking the Gophers to cover. Tell me I'm not unbiased in my picks, I dare you!

Minnesota fired head coach Tim Brewster after their terrible start and have handed the reins to offensive coordinator Jeff Horton for the rest of the season. Horton has previous head coaching experience at Nevada and UNLV, but didn't exactly light the world on fire at either place.

So why am I picking the Gophers to cover here?

Minnesota has a nasty habit of covering spreads and has done so for years. Penn State has looked exceedingly average in getting out to an 0-2 start in the conference.

Add those two things together and 9.5 becomes way too large of a spread.

When you make that determination, you take the points and keep your fingers crossed.

My brother's attending this game on Saturday, so this one's on you Mark! Big brother needs to get back on the winning track!

Thirdly...

Saturday, 10/23 - LSU +6 at Auburn (2:30pm, CBS): The Tigers are 7-0 (4-0 in the SEC). The Tigers are 7-0 (4-0 in the SEC).
*- This game is this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

Tigers vs. Tigers?! Oh my!

Okay, every single one of you saw that joke coming, and I still went there. Yeah. Deal with it.

This has to be one of the biggest games of the week, and while the last thing I want to see is a Les Miles coached team win, I don't think this is going to be a blowout for either club.

Games like this in the SEC tend to be two things: shoot-outs and closely contested.

My guess? Whoever has the ball last wins. That means a final score within three points of each other. That means we take the points and hope Miles doesn't get too “creative”.

Are you listening, Les? Are you?!

Finally...

Saturday, 10/23 - Oklahoma -3 at Missouri (7pm, ABC): The Sooners are 6-0 (2-0 in the Big 12). The Tigers are 6-0 (2-0 in the Big 12).

This would be the other mega-showdown game in college football this week as two more undefeated teams square off in a high-stakes match-up.

So why go with the Sooners? Look at the two clubs' best wins:

Oklahoma - Florida State, Texas, at Cincinnati

Missouri - Illinois, Colorado, Texas A&M

Advantage? Sooners. And I only have to give up 3 points? I'll take that wager!

Let's just hope that #1 doesn't choke two weeks in a row, shall we?!

So there you have them folks. Four college football picks for you to peruse, ponder, pontificate on and perhaps even be perplexed by.

(Yes, I know I ended that sentence with a preposition... Thank you grammar police!)

Think I'm right on? Think I'm way off? Think I'm on a controlled substance of some sort? Tack on a comment and let me know who you'd have picked!

That'll put a wrap on today's column. The plan is to return with a DFTU for you on Friday.

But as you've all learned, the best laid plans are subject to change!

Until next time, thanks for reading!

10-18-10: RGC XIII - Nebraska vs. Texas

2010-10-18T18:03:00.004-05:00

Hello again everybody...

First off, sorry for getting this up so late in the day. It was a whale of a trip to Nebraska this weekend and that included a couple of long car trips and a couple of restless nights (I never sleep well in a hotel), so I was pretty zonked by the time we got back to Minneapolis on Sunday.

Instead, then, of cranking this column out on Sunday afternoon/evening like I usually do, I waited til today to write it and the whole process took longer than I planned.

Mea Culpa.

In any case, it was a memorable weekend and I can't wait for you to get to read about it, so let's get on with it already!

Right after the quote...

“Seek simplicity, and distrust it.”
- Alfred North Whitehead (1861 - 1947), English mathematician and philosopher

Everything was set up for a big win by the Huskers over their hated rival Texas, but I knew better than to trust it!

Running Game Commentary XIII: Nebraska vs. Texas

Pregame

Lon in Forest Lake has been one of my dearest friends for well over 20 years. We met in 4th grade when he and his family moved to Minnesota from Nebraska. One of the first things anyone who gets to know their family learns is their love for Husker Football.

So I've heard for many years about trips to Lincoln and Memorial Stadium and all the pomp and circumstance which surround game-day in Nebraska. But I'd never experienced it.

Then I started writing a blog which extolled the virtues of baseball, college football and hockey. They are, in that order, my favorite sports. Instead of boring the pants off of people by just talking about them when in group settings, I decided to additionally bore the pants off of those folks and others by writing about the things I'd usually only talk about and posting it on the internet for the world to see if they so chose.

Apparently, I struck a chord with some of the people I know. Lon's dad, Larry in Maple Grove, became an avid reader (my term, not his) of the blog. I'm not sure how much he enjoys the baseball portion of it, but I know he's a hockey fan as well as a rabid college football fan.

That brings us to about a year ago, when he told me how much he'd like me to get to see what a game is like in Lincoln. I knew his family back in Nebraska had season tickets and that he got to go a time or two per season, but I never seriously thought I'd get the invitation. Until a few months ago when he told me he had tickets to a game, and would I like to go?

“What date are they for?” I asked.

“October 16th”, he said, “It's the Texas game.”

“Nebraska vs. Texas?!” I replied, “When are you picking me up?!”

That turned out to be this past Friday when Larry, Lon and his brother Joe in Plymouth, picked me up at my apartment and we headed out on the road for Omaha where we made a stop at Larry's sister's (Lori in Omaha) house for dinner, before heading on to Lincoln and our hotel room.

As I alluded to earlier in the column, it was a long drive. Not so much on the way down there, because there was the excitement of the trip, and the newness of not really knowing where I was going. On the way back - when you're just longing to get home - that was a different story.

All in all, the drive went without incident and other a few minor hallucinations at various points in Iowa (apologies to Jeff and Cat in Des Moines, but wow, there's virtually nothing there...), it was rather harmless.

So we safely arrived at the hotel in Lincoln, bunked down, watched the end of Game 1 of the ALCS (freaking Yankees), and prepared for the Husker game the next day.

We got up bright and early - for me anyways - on Saturday and headed down to campus. Larry had his parking spot all planned out and wanted to get there early enough so we were assured a good spot. Plus it gave us ample opportunity to walk around the stadium/campus and soak in the experience.

I can't say that the University of Nebraska campus is markedly different from other campuses I've been on. But I can say that most of the universities I've visited have had outstanding atmospheres and Nebraska's no different.

It's hard to put into words, but there's just a unique energy that college campuses possess and other places don't - especially when there's an important athletic contest to be decided.

We spent a solid four hours traipsing around the area, checking out university bookstore where I picked up a Nebraska coach's hat (I needed something to fit in, and I'm pretty sure Lori in Omaha was set to hunt me down and plant a Nebraska hat on my head if I didn't take care of it myself), getting lunch at an Old Chicago and walking a circuit around the stadium itself.

Memorial Stadium, like many others, has been renovated over the years, yet has managed to retain a classic feel while providing spectators with many modern amenities. One of the coolest parts of our pregame wanderings was touring the “Traditions Lobby” where they've collected all sorts of memorabilia from Nebraska Football's storied history. My favorite was a telegram which contained the name and home towns of literally thousands and thousands of Nebraska fans - and in so doing set a world record for the longest telegram at the time - which was presented as a pre-Bowl Game gift to the University of Miami.

There was also, of course, the “Heisman Room” where the replica trophies of those given to the Huskers three Heisman winners - Johnny Rodgers, Mike Rozier and Eric Crouch - are kept. We didn't stick around to see the accompanying video presentation, but it looked like quite an experience.

Finally it was time to make our way up to our seats. Larry warned me that they were a ways up, and while the climb was slightly taxing, it was well worth the view. We were seated on the North end of the stadium, slightly off to the side of the North endzone. The main video board was behind us to our left, so we could see it, but there were four other smaller boards that allowed us to keep tabs on things well enough.

One of the first things that struck me about being inside Memorial Stadium was the passion of the fans. Most college football fan-bases are passionate, but these folks are almost professional in their passion. I mean these folks in Lincoln were cheering warm-ups! And not just when the team came out on the field to warm up, like I've seen plenty of other places. No, when the kicker made a long practice field goal, there was a cheer. When the offense got done with its round of drills there was a cheer. It's almost as though Nebraska fans can't wait to demonstrate their love of this team and are ready to do so at any given opportunity.

Then, of course, there's the band. The Nebraska marching band is like many college bands I've seen - talented, well orchestrated, unfortunately attired, and instructed to play songs that seemed somewhat out of place. Not their fault, just the way these types of bands are run. What struck me during the pregame festivities was when they “welcomed” the visiting Longhorns by playing the Texas fight song, and 85,000-plus went dead quiet. No boos, no cat-calling, no unfortunate epithets, just complete silence.

Over each entrance to Memorial Stadium is the phrase, “Through These Gates Pass the Greatest Fans in College Football”. I've never heard an opposing school's fight song not get booed on some level. It was surreal and a treat to hear.

And then came the kickoff...

First Quarter

I couldn't have been more excited for the game to begin. Nebraska was ranked number five in the nation, they had a stud freshman quarterback who'd been running rings around defenses in previous weeks, Texas was on a two-game losing streak coming in and looked especially vulnerable and Nebraska was going to get the ball first.

15:00 - The opening kickoff sailed into the endzone for a touchback. First and 10 for the Huskers on their own 20.

A 2-yard rush, intentional grounding penalty and quarterback draw later, and the Huskers are punting. Not the opening drive we were all hoping for, but it's early.

14:18 - Texas returns the Nebraska 31 yards and opens its first drive on the Nebraska 47.

Okay, that wasn't good either.

The important point here though was... holy hell does Memorial Stadium get loud when the Huskers are on defense. I've been in stadiums before where fans try to get loud on one end or the other to disrupt an opponents offense, but each one of the 85,000+ in the stadium seems determined to individually wreak havoc with Texas' offense. Suddenly I'm thinking earplugs might have been a good pregame purchase.

Texas is able to move the ball to the Nebraska 10 before the defense finally stiffens and the drive stalls. Longhorns K Justin Tucker nails the 27-yard field goal and Texas leads 3-0.

The long punt-return doesn't cost Nebraska dearly. Now it's time for the Husker O to get moving!

9:58 - On first and 10 from their own 21, Nebraska gives the ball to RB Roy Helu who promptly fumbles to give the ball back to Texas deep in Husker territory.

Well, that's not good.

This time the Husker defense is unable to stop Texas's offense, and the Longhorns punch it in for a touchdown, making Nebraska pay for the offensive mistake. 10-0 Texas.

8:06 - Okay, now the Husker offense can get going.

What's that? Three and out, again?! Nope. Not good at all.

4:12 - And the Husker D gets a stop. Texas got a first down, but two unsuccessful rushes and an incomplete pass force them to punt. Now the Husker offense should get going!

3:25 - Okay, I don't want to bag on the Husker offensive coordinator too early in the game, but he's now run on first down in every single series and they don't have more than 5 yards total to show for it. I ask Larry if perhaps an early-down pass might be in order, which is immediately followed by a 15-yard run from QB Taylor Martinez. Thanks for not giving me the, “shut up and watch the game” look, Larry. I deserved it there.

End of the 1st Quarter: Texas 10, Nebraska 0.

Okay, not the start we were hoping for, but considering the mistakes that were made, it could've been worse. Plus, Nebraska has a drive going now. Surely their luck will change!

Second Quarter

14:20 - What had been a promising drive for the Huskers stalls out on the Texas 28 yard line. Nebraska kicker Alex Henry makes the 45-yard field goal with little trouble and the Huskers finally get on the scoreboard, trailing 10-3.

13:22 - Texas's ensuing drive goes incompletion, short run, incompletion and I finally get to see my first example of “Throwing the Bones”. It's a Nebraska tradition when the defense holds the opposition to a “three and out” series, the players and fans raise their arms, making an X like the crossed bones on the pirate-logoed “Blackshirts” that defenders earn the right to wear in practice. Seeing nearly 85,000 fans do that is pretty cool.

11:16 - Unfortunately, Nebraska's next drive also goes three and out. They don't have a signal for that.

During said drive, we're informed that today's attendance is officially 85,648, which is a heck of an accomplishment given that official capacity for Memorial Stadium is 81,067!

9:40 - Texas QB Garret Gilbert hits WR Foswhitt Whittaker on a 41-yard play that takes the ball down to the Nebraska 10. It wasn't a deep bomb, however. Whittaker got open over the middle and the Husker defender who should've made the tackle tried the ever-popular “throw-my-shoulder-into-him-and-hope-he-falls-down” method. It didn't work. That's now the second time we've seen that method not work, as a matter of fact.

Three plays later, Texas scores to make it 17-3, Longhorns.

8:44 - Nebraska's next drive goes: rush on first down, pass for a first down, rush on first down again, rush on second down, rush on third down for a first, tackle for a loss on first down, incomplete pass on second down, incomplete pass on third down, punt.

I have no doubt the Husker staff has forgotten more about play-calling than I'll ever know, but would it kill them to throw on first down a little? I mean, if I'm spotting the pattern, and Texas is determined to contain Nebraska's rushing game, isn't throwing early the only/best option? I'm just sayin...

4:31 - Nebraska gets the ball back after another three and out from Texas. The crowd's not nearly as raucous about it this time though. Could the team be losing them this early?

2:54 - If they weren't losing them before, going: run for no gain, recover our own fumble, incomplete pass, and punt, sure isn't going to get the fans any more fired up. I even notice an exasperated sigh from Larry. Nope, this isn't going as planned at all!

End of the First Half: Texas 17, Nebraska 3

Okay, that was a lousy first half for the Huskers. Time to make some adjustments (Larry assures me head coach Bo Pelini is capable of making them) and come out fired up for the second half!

Third Quarter

15:00 - Texas gets the ball to start the half, and while they manage to pick up a first down, they eventually stall and are forced to punt.

Okay, now let's see what adjustments have been made!

12:21 - I'm forced to shake my head a bit as the ensuing Nebraska drive goes: run, recover-our-own-fumble, run, punt, and get penalized on the punt, giving Texas great field position again.

Really, I'm not trying to get too down on the club. I'm a guest and it's only polite not to criticize, but if this is “adjusting to what Texas is doing defensively”, then the Huskers are in all kinds of trouble.

8:52 - Another penalty and a few inconsequential Texas plays later, the Longhorns hit their second field goal of the game making it 20-3, Texas.

At this point, it's a three-score deficit for the Huskers, and I have no clue where those three scores are going to come from.

8:00 - Nebraka's next drive begins with an incomplete pass.

I'll let that marinate for a moment.

By my notes, at 8:00 left in the 3rd quarter, Nebraska attempts its first pass on first down of the game. Look, I know the Huskers are a run-first offense, but given the fact that Texas has had eight defenders in the box on nearly every conceivable running situation, don't you think they should of tried this before now?

Sadly, “mixing it up” doesn't help and the Huskers are forced to punt again.

6:14 - More bones get thrown as Texas goes three and out and then...

“Good gawd, is that Zac Lee's music?!” (wrestling joke... if you don't get it, trust me, you don't want to.)

A huge cheer goes up from the crowd as senior QB Zac Lee (who was the starter last year) comes in to replace the ineffective Taylor Martinez. That's not an indictment from the crowd on Martinez, mind you. It's just a show of how badly these folks want to beat Texas.

Lee proceeds to engineer a 16-play drive including three 3rd-down conversions resulting in a 28-yard Alex Henry field goal with :30 remaining in the quarter to make it 20-6, Texas.

Still a two-score deficit, but it was nice to see the Huskers finally move the ball a bit!

End of the Third Quarter: Texas 20, Nebraska 6

If Nebraska's going to pull out a win, they'd better do something spectacular to change the momentum, and quickly!

Fourth Quarter

13:00 - Nebraska forces another three-and-out on defense (throw them bones!) and Zac Lee starts another drive for the Huskers.

7:01 - Unfortunately, that drive ends badly, as another Husker receiver drops a pass (one of the themes of this game) on a fourth down play that would've given Nebraska a touchdown and trimmed the lead to a single score.

Texas takes over on downs, and I pen the following note, “Even the rabid Husker fan base heads for the hills when they know it's over.”

Regular readers know how I rail against baseball spectators for leaving a game early. Football is a different animal. The reason I get so rankled at a baseball game is because there's no clock. Until one team gets 27 outs with the lead, anything can happen. But when your football team is down two scores with seven minutes left, and their offense barely has a pulse, well, I can't say as I blame them.

Not that we were going anywhere mind you!

4:00 - And with good reason! After Texas' latest drive stalls at the Nebraska 32, the Longhorns get cute and line up in field goal formation, only to attempt a pooch punt.

I say “attempt” because the kicker's punt didn't go out of bounds and Texas was forced to try and cover it without the aid of their standard punt-team personnel. They paid dearly for that mistake as Eric Hagg fielded the punt and returned it 94-yards for a Husker touchdown! 20-13, Texas.

3:02 - Time for the crucial onside kick...

Which is promptly fielded cleanly by Texas at the Nebraska 42 yard line. Dammit. If the exodus wasn't on before, it sure as hell is now!

1:20 - On a critical third down and one play for Texas, Nebraska jumps offside, giving the Longhorns a first down and allowing them to run out the rest of the clock.

Final: Texas 20, Nebraska 13

Well, that sucks!

Postgame

I point out to the guys for the upteenth time that I didn't pick this game in my Wednesday column, and am fondly reassured that I'm not being blamed for the loss. Whew!

The game came down to what I termed the “Three P's”: Penalties, Poor Tackling, and Pass Drops.

In total, the Huskers were penalized 20 times for a total of 202 yards. That's a jaw-dropping number. Even more so when you compare it to Texas' 6 penalties for 80 yards. Granted, at least two of Nebraska's 20 flags were on awfully questionable pass interference calls, but still, when you get flagged 20 times, something's amiss that can't be blamed on the officials.

I mentioned it earlier, but there were far too many examples of poor tackling for a team to expect a win. The “throw-my-shoulder-into-him-and-hope-he-falls-down” method that I criticized earlier can work, but only if you get the guy low enough to make sure he goes down. Too many times we saw the Huskers hit a guy high, only to have him bounce off and continue running.

On the day, Nebraska quarterbacks were 9-for-22 throwing the ball. That translates to a 41% completion rate. Even for a run-first team, that's pretty lousy. The 13 incompletions can't all be blamed on the quarterbacks however. I don't have an exact count, but I'm willing to bet that close to half of those were passes that could have - perhaps even should have - been caught by Husker receivers. At least two of the drops would've resulted in Nebraska touchdowns. That's not to say those two plays specifically cost the Huskers the game, but the way it played out would've been dramatically different if even one of them had been caught.

Kudos to the Longhorns. They won, and they certainly deserved it, but I can't help but feel that Nebraska let an opportunity for a huge win and perhaps a top-3 ranking slip through their hands.

Needless to say, the walk back to the car was fairly somber. That is, until we ran into the guys selling the “Horns Down” t-shirts while calling out, “Texas still sucks... get your 'Horns Down' t-shirts!” That got a pretty good chuckle.

Shortly thereafter we waded through a tailgating area where I noticed that somebody had a satellite dish hooked up and was watching the Wisconsin/Ohio State game that had begun a little bit ago. Naturally, I dashed over to check out the score... 13 (soon to be 14) to 0, Wisconsin?! Oh my!

After realizing that every eating/game-watching establishment in the area was packed full, we went and got the car, tuned in the Wisconsin game on satellite radio and headed back to the hotel where Lon, Larry and Joe eased their troubled minds with some pizza and pop, while watching the Badger game with a crazed Wisconsin fan (yours truly) as Bucky beat the number one team in the nation, Ohio State, 31-18.

Not a bad way to cap off a memorable day.

I'm not going to pretend that "20-13 Texas" wasn't something of a buzzkill, but it certainly by no means ruined the trip.

I had a blast experiencing a new college football atmosphere with three of my favorite college football fans. It was an awesome experience and one I won't soon forget.

So to Larry in Maple Grove, Lon in Forest Lake and Joe in Plymouth, I say, thank you! I had a ball and can't possibly thank you enough for the opportunity. Hopefully we'll get to do it again some day!

Maybe, say, on a trip to Camp Randall in Madison, Wisconsin, for a Badger/Husker game?!

That's going to wrap things up for today. Thanks again for your patience, but as you can see, there was a lot to describe and I wanted to get it as right as I could. Hopefully I succeeded.

I'll be back on Wednesday with more college football goodness.

Until then, thanks for reading!

10-15-10: MLB Post-Season Mayhem, Part the Second

2010-10-15T10:08:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

By the time you read this, I'll be on the road headed southwestward on my trip to go see Nebraska/Texas, the final chapter!

I can't wait to experience the promised nirvana of college football that exists in Lincoln, Nebraska!

So you'll have to forgive me if I keep today's column a touch short. I still have to pack, then double-check to pack the stuff I forgot the first time, then triple-check just to make sure I didn't miss anything (Thanks, Mom).

So instead of the usual Friday DFTU column, I decided to do a quick preview of the LCS's which start tonight.

Let's get to the previewing then!

Right after the quote...

“Given a choice between two theories, take the one which is funnier.”
- Blore's Razor

If you can't be right, at least be entertaining!

MLB Post-Season Mayhem, Part the Second

Much like I did prior to the LDS round, I'll preview the two LCS's by telling you what I think each of the four teams have to do to win. First up...

ALCS: Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees - The two teams split their season series, four games apiece.

What the Rangers need to do to win:

Two things: one, get more consistent at scoring runs in a hurry; and two, hope like hell that C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis are able to compete against the Yankees lineup.

In the 3 games the Rangers won in the LDS, they scored 16 runs. In the two games they lost? 5.

Granted, that's a ridiculously low sample-size to use to draw any conclusions. But if Texas's lineup goes quiet against Sabathia, Hughes and/or Pettitte, they'll be in serious trouble.

Nelson Cruz (.400/.400/.950) and Ian Kinsler (.444/.500/.944) carried the Texas offense against Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, MVP candidate Josh Hamilton (.111/.200/.111) was held to just two hits in his 18 At-Bats. I don't know if his ribs are still bothering him, or if he's just not back into a rhythm after missing so much time at the end of the regular season. Either way, he'll have to step it up against the Yankees for the Rangers to advance to the World Series.

Why are Wilson and Lewis so key? Because the Rangers didn't finish their business at home against the Rays, and were forced to throw Cliff Lee again in Game 5. That means Lee won't be available in the LCS until Game 3.

The advantage there is that if the series go to seven games, Lee would be scheduled to pitch Game 7. The problem is, if Wilson and Lewis aren't good enough to keep the Rangers in it, then you end up losing a series where you only got to throw your best pitcher once.

I know that Lee doesn't like pitching on short rest, but all of this could've been avoided if he'd gone in Game 4 of the LDS instead of Game 5. Even if Tampa had still won Game 4, Texas likely wins Game 5 and then Lee can go in Game 1 of the ALCS on regular rest, and the Rangers would've been able to throw him in 1, 4 & 7 of the ALCS if they wanted to.

But that's water under the bridge at this point. Lee will go in Game 3, and Texas better hope like hell that they're 1-1 or better at that point. Down 0-2 and having to go against Pettitte in Yankee Stadium? I'm not sure even Lee's magic will be able to save them at that point.

What the Yankees need to do to win:

Keep doing the same things they did in their LDS win over the Twins: get great starting pitching and clutch hits.

CC Sabathia may not have had an outstanding Game 1 in Minnesota, but he grinded out a win on a night where he didn't have his best stuff. He kept his team in the game and when it counted most he got out of a jamb that allowed his club to take the lead for good.

New York didn't know what they were going to get out of Andy Pettitte in Game 2, since he was having back troubles. All he did was go seven innings, surrendering only two earned runs with four strikeouts. Yeah, Andy Pettitte is still a clutch performer in the post-season.

Phil Hughes made his first post-season start of his career in Game 3 and went seven innings as well. Only his were of the “shut-out” variety. Hughes was on his game as he struck out 7 while allowing only four hits to the Twins. If he's that good against the Rangers, it could be lights-out early for Texas.

Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman, and Jorge Posada. What do they have in common? All of them came through in the clutch for the Yankees against the Twins. What's scary about that is that Tex is the only name in the bunch that you would've predicted would be there before the series started.

2B Robinson Cano (.333/.333/.500) was good too. If A-Roid and Jeter get things going (and let's face it, this is the post-season, Jeter will be heard from before this thing's done), it's going to make life very tough for the Rangers.

Unlike the Rangers, the Yankees had the opportunity to line up their pitching. Sabathia and Hughes will pitch in Games 1 & 2 in Texas. Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and Sabathia (if necessary) will then go in New York.

I'm not making predictions, but savvy readers will have a pretty good idea of who I think will win this series!

NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants - The two teams split their season series three games apiece.

What the Phillies need to do to win:

Much like the Yankees, they need to keep being the Phillies.

While the Giants got great pitching in their LDS win over Atlanta, there's no question that Philadelphia has the best1-2-3 punch of any club left in the post-season.

Roy Halladay pitched a no-hitter in his first ever post-season start.

Think about that. Sure, Halladay's a veteran. Sure, he pitched a perfect game earlier this season. But he had to be feeling an extra rush coming into his first playoff start, and still he was able to hit his spots and utterly confound the Cincinnati hitters.

I know Don Larsen has the only other no-hitter in post-season history... and it was a perfecto... and it was in the World Series, but I wasn't alive then. Doc Halladay's game might have been the best I've seen since Jack Morris in the '91 Series, and there've been a LOT of good starts to choose from since then.

Roy Oswalt wasn't great in Game 2 of the LDS, but the Phillies bailed him out with four runs in the seventh and eighth inning to get the win. Philly needs Roy to have a better outing in the NLCS, and there's no reason to think he can't do just that.

All Cole Hamels did was throw a complete-game shutout in Game 3. It wasn't a no-no like Doc, but when you scatter five hits, strike out nine and don't walk anybody, you've more than done your job.

If Oswalt is better, and Halladay and Hamels remain consistent, the Giants are going to have a devil of a time scoring runs.

Though Philly's offense is certainly capable of posting big numbers, they didn't exactly bomb the Reds out of the building. Chase Utley hit their only homer of the series, and was the only Phillie with a Slugging Percentage better than .400.

That's a concern since the Giants have some fantastic starters of their own.

The difference in this series could very well be whether the Phillies offense reverts to form, or struggles to score against Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez.

What the Giants have to do to win:

The Giants have terrific starters, much like the Phillies. But where Philly has big-play offensive potential, San Francisco has to dig and grind for every run they get.

We knew going into the SF/ATL LDS that runs were going to be at a premium. As it turned out, every single game was won by one run. The Giants' pitching was enough to get by against Atlanta, but the offense will have to pick it up to upset the Phillies.

Super-rookie C Buster Posey (.375/.444/.438) and OF Cody Ross (.286/.333/.571) led the way for San Francisco against the Braves. But Aubrey Huff (.267/.389/.267) and Pablo Sandoval (.167/.286/.167) - two guys the Giants very much counted on during the regular season - will have to do a lot better for their club to have a chance against the Phillies.

As I keep saying, the Giants have a damned good troika of starters as well. In fact if it wasn't for the Phillies trio, they'd be the best left in the post-season.

Tim Lincecum fired a two-hit, 14 strikeout complete-game shutout for the Giants in Game 1 of their LDS series. In fact, when you look at some of the sabermetrics involved, Lincecum's Game 1 was every bit as good as Halladay's no-hitter.

To put it mildly, I can't WAIT to check out Game 1 (Halladay v. Lincecum) of this series!

Matt Cain only went 6.2 innings in Game 2, but held the Braves to only one unearned run while striking out six Atlanta hitters. Pitching after Lincecum means Cain often gets overlooked in the San Francisco rotation, but if Oswalt isn't back on his game in Game 2 of this series, Cain could be the reason the Giants get a split in Philly.

Jonathan Sanchez has good games and bad games, but was most certainly on his game in Game 3 of the LDS. 7.1 innings of one-run ball with 11 strikeouts is going to win you a lot of baseball games. He'll match up with Hamels in Game 3 of the LCS which also has the ability to be a classic.

Bottom line, if San Francisco can find some offense from somewhere... anywhere... they have the pitching to stay in this series with the Phills. There's no doubt, however, that Philly's the favorite.

Again, I'm not making picks, but you can guess who I like to win this series.

So there you have them, ladies and gents. Previews of what the four clubs left in the post-season have to do to make it to the Fall Classic.

Maybe you could tell, but I'm a whole lot more excited to watch the NLCS than the ALCS, though both have the potential to be excellent.

The ALCS kicks off tonight. Game 1 - Sabathia vs. Wilson in Arlington, TX. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm Central (which means 7:20 is a better bet).

The NLCS starts tomorrow night. Game 1 - Halladay vs. Lincecum in Philadelphia, PA. If you wonder why I rave about pitching so much, do yourself a favor and watch this one. Watch where the catcher holds his glove before each pitch, and how many times the pitcher puts the ball right there. Trust me, you'll be amazed at the skill these two guys have. First pitch is scheduled for 6:57pm Central (which means 7:07 might actually happen!).

That's going to wrap things up for this week. My goal is to have an epic college football Running Game Commentary for you on Monday. Hopefully the trip goes well!

Until then, thanks for reading!

10-13-10: 2010 College Football Picks, Week 7

2010-10-13T10:01:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Welcome to another Wednesday. My pick-up for the Big Red Road-trip is scheduled for shortly after 9am on Friday morning, so in an effort not to get my sleep-cycle too out of whack, allow me to quickly get to the getting with this column.

The college football picks columns tend to run longer than average, so I don't want to waste my time being all witty and clever in the opening few graphs!

Let's get to the picking!

Right after the quote...

“Everything you can imagine is real.”
*- Pablo Picasso (1881 - 1973), Spanish painter, draughtsman and sculptor

Admirable sentiment. Maybe if I imagine a Big Red blowout hard enough, it might happen? We'll see!

2010 College Football Picks: Week 7

We begin each week with a review of last week's picks. In Week 5, I went 3-1 and was a half-point away from that elusive 4-0 week. Another week like that, and I'll be right on track for where I want to be this season. How'd I do? Let's find out...

Right after we take a look at the game I passed on:

Michigan State -4.5 at Michigan: Final Score - Michigan State 34, Michigan 17

Wow. Should've picked this one I guess, huh? As I said last week, if it had been in East Lansing, I would have, but I was a bit nervous about picking Sparty on the road. As it turned out, I had no reason to worry. Michigan state exposed Wolverine quarterback Denard Robinson as the talented-but-still-raw player that he is, forcing him into three interceptions - two of which were in the red zone. The “emotional comeback” for head coach Mark Dantonio that I thought was coming for the Wisconsin game, actually came in this game. While being on the road meant there wasn't quite the fan reaction that would've occurred at home, it was still awfully inspirational for his players. Michigan State has the schedule to be a force in the Big Ten this season. They're game with Iowa in a couple of weeks will be huge in terms of the league title race.

Okay, so I should've picked that one, but didn't. What does that mean for the games I did pick? We're going to find out...

First...

Minnesota +22 at Wisconsin: Final Score - Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 23

I ripped Bret Bielema on Monday for the classless way he handled this game, but perhaps I should thank him? Maybe the d-bag move he pulled calling for a two-point conversion while up 25 inspired the Gophers to drive the ball down for one last touchdown which covered the spread for me?

I have to correct one thing from last week. I said that Wisconsin had won seven in a row and 13 out of the last 15 games in this series. Unfortunately, I was working ahead. After their 2010 win, they now have won seven in a row. The “13 out of 15” part I had right. Of course, that now becomes 14 out of 16.

Either way, Wisconsin has dominated this series in recent times. And though it's likely that Minnesota will have a new coach enter the fray in 2011, it'll be at least a year or two before that individual has things turned around enough to bring that streak to an end.

As I predicted, Wisconsin physically dominated the Gophers at the point of attack to the tune of 473 yards of total offense, 250 of which came on the ground, 111 of which belonged to 250-pound behemoth John Clay.

Wisconsin's ability to run the ball meant they won the Time of Possession battle 34:02 to 25:58. When Wisconsin does that, they're all but unbeatable.

While 22 wasn't as outlandish a spread as I believed it was going into the game, it still turned out to be too many, and the Gophers did a fine job covering for me.

1-0 and starting strong...

Next...

Arkansas -6 at Texas A&M: Final Score - Arkansas 24, Texas A&M 17
*- This game was this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

Make that five straight Flier Picks for your humble author...

I'm not going to lie. I didn't have much justification for this pick, hence it's Flier status.

I also didn't get to see any of the game since, while it was part of ABC/ESPN's rotation, it wasn't available in my area.

From what I've read, Arkansas got out to an early lead, but their offense fizzled as the game went along. Fortunately for me, their defense was up to the task and held down the A&M offense to allow me to cover.

They don't have to be pretty folks, they just have to be covers!

2-0 and feeling a strong week coming!

Thirdly...

Arizona -7.5 vs. Oregon State: Final Score - Oregon St. 29, Arizona 27

So much for that “magic half-point alert” I guess, huh?

Oof.

I don't know if the Wildcats got caught licking their chops looking ahead to their match-up with a woeful Washington State club next week, or of they just flat failed to get off the bus this week. Whatever it was, this was a hugely disappointing effort from a club that was one of the favorites to win the Pac 10.

I knew the Beavers weren't as bad as some of their previous games might have led one to believe - no team with RB Jacquizz Rodgers could be. I had no idea that they had it in them to pull of this upset however. From here on out, I think we have to declare Oregon State a “stay away” team. They can beat good teams and lose to bad teams. That's not the type of squad you want to wager on.

2-1 and reduced to hoping for a second-straight 3-1 week.

Finally...

Northwestern -9.5 vs. Purdue: Final Score - Purdue 20, Northwestern 17

Say what?!?!

Perhaps you could've convinced me that 9.5 was too many to give in this game, but there's no way you could've talked me into Purdue winning outright! Not with the number of injuries to skill players they've had to deal with.

But win outright they did. And it was their special teams that provided the spark.

Trailing in the fourth quarter, the Boilermakers blocked a field goal that would've given Northwestern a touchdown lead, and forced another miss by the Wildcats after Purdue had gone down and scored the go-ahead touchdown.

Don't ask me how they pulled that part off, I have no idea.

Now, however, I have to re-evaluate my labeling of Purdue as the 2010 Big Ten Doormat, as well as the best hope Minnesota had for a Big Ten win this season.

Knowing the Gophers might go 0-fer (ugh, that shouldn't rhyme) is small consolation for being so grossly wrong on this pick.

So for Week 6 I finish a mediocre 2-2 (.500). That makes my season record 12-11 (.522). That's only a few tenths of a percent less than I was at last week, but as we near the midway point of the season, backwards is not the direction you want to be going in!

Time to get another +.500 week under my belt. Hopefully that happens in...

Week 7

Slim pickings this week. Hopefully that doesn't bode ill for the games I do decide to pick, but first, the single games I looked at seriously, but decided to pass on:

Saturday, 10/16 - Arizona -23.5 at Washington State (6pm, Versus):

Arizona's coming off a tough loss to Oregon State and WASU sucks the bag this year. So why did I decide to take a pass on this game? Simple, it's on the road and I don't like giving up four scores on the road if I don't have to. I won't be surprised if this one covers. You have to think that the Wildcats will be eager to get a win after their loss last week. But I can find four other games to pick, so I'll take a pass on this one.

Saturday, 10/16 - Nebraska -9.5 vs. Texas (2:30pm, ABC/ESPN):

Mea Culpa: I had this game picked, and an entire section written to justify it when I realized, I just can't do this. My favorite Nebraska fans in the whole world are bringing me to this game out of the kindness of their hearts. If I pick it, I have to pick the Huskers. If I pick the Huskers and they lose to a Texas team which is as beatable as they're ever going to be? Well, let's just say I wouldn't blame them if they never spoke to me again!

I certainly like Nebraska's chances in this game, but 9.5 is a lot to cover in a game that will be filled with emotion. I want to be bold. I want to go ahead and pick this game. But I'm going to be smart, not mess with the mojo, and take a pass on this one.

So if I'm passing on those, which games am I picking?

As always, were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager... these are the games I'd be betting on:

First...

Saturday, 10/16 - California +2.5 at USC (2:30pm, FSN): The Golden Bears are 3-2 (1-1 in the Pac 10). The Trojans are 4-2 (1-2 in the Pac 10).

I'm giving your Bears one more chance, Tafoya! If they screw me on this one, I'm done with them for 2010!

Cal's record may not look spectacular, but dig a litter deeper. Their two losses are at Nevada - who can score points like crazy - and at Arizona, which was a one-point loss to a very good football team.

Meanwhile they whipped a halfway-decent Colorado team 52-7 and thumped UCLA 35-7 after the Bruins had gone on the road and beaten Texas!

That's about as good a 3-2 resume as you can compile.

As for USC, they're coming off of two straight losses (Washington and Stanford) and it's my sincere hope that the wheels are starting to come off that program a bit.

USC doesn't lose two games in a row, they just don't. So the Trojans have to be reeling a bit, not to mention questioning their coaching hire. Lane Kiffin hasn't really proven whether he's a capable head coach or not, despite the multitude of opportunities he's been given.

If fingers are starting to be pointed, things could get dicey in a hurry for USC.

Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but this is as good a shot as Cal's going to have to go into the Coliseum and walk out with a win over one of their biggest rivals.

I'll take the 2.5 and hope Tafoya's Bears are as “sturdy” as she keeps singing they are!

Next...

Saturday, 10/16 - Iowa -3.5 at Michigan (2:30pm, ABC/ESPN): The Hawkeyes are 4-1 (1-0 in the Big Ten). The Wolverines are 5-1 (1-1 in the Big Ten).

Michigan State provided the blueprint on how to bottle up sophomore sensation Denard Robinson and beat Michigan last weekend. This weekend, Iowa gets to have a go at him.

The Hawkeyes bring one of the toughest defenses in the Big Ten, if not the country, to the Big House, and my guess is they'll do much the same as Michigan State.

Michigan's better than they were last year, no doubt. But they're a long way from their traditional role as conference heavyweight. Their offense has tended to be one-dimensional so far, and as we saw, if you contain that dimension (Robinson), they don't have many other options to beat you with.

And lest you think that Iowa's not a team that can score a lot of points, they've put up no fewer than 24 in every game this season. The fewest that Michigan has allowed? 10 to Uconn. Other than that, teams have scored at least 21 or more on them.

Put all that together and I only have to give 3.5? Yup, I'll take Iowa. No problemo.

Thirdly...

Saturday, 10/16 - Idaho -1.5 at Louisiana Tech (3:00pm, find a good bar): The Vandals are 3-2 (0-0 in the WAC). The Bulldogs are 2-4 (1-1 in the WAC).
*- This game is this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

While I'm loathe to risk a 5-week Flier Pick winning streak, I'm going to try a new angle this week.

I know virtually nothing about either of these clubs, so I'm basing my pick solely on the movement of the line so far.

The game opened at: Louisiana Tech -2. As you can see it's now: Idaho -1.5.

That means that bettors bet Idaho so hard after the line opened that Vegas had to move the line 3.5 points to get anybody to bet on Tech.

To me, that says somebody knows something! And whatever it is, I'm willing to get on board - Flier-style, that is!

I'll take the Vandals, give the 1.5 and hope the cross-country trip doesn't take too much out of them!

Finally...

Saturday, 10/16 - Ohio State -4 at Wisconsin (6pm, ESPN): The Buckeyes are 5-0 (2-0 in the Big Ten). The Badgers are 5-1 (1-1 in the Big Ten).

I'm really not sure why this keeps happening. The Badgers have been over-valued in nearly every game this year. If I recall correctly, they're 1-5 against the spread, with the Austin Peay 70-3 game being the only time they've covered.

This week, the undefeated, number-one-in-the-nation Buckeyes come to Madison, and somehow this game opens at Ohio State -6 and gets bet down to -4?!

I know it's a night game and funky things can happen at Camp Randall at night, but having watched every Badger game this season, I don't really know how anyone can see Wisconsin +6 against a very good Ohio State team and think they're getting a gift?!

Wisconsin's the best team Ohio State has faced so far this season (although that 24-13 win over Illinois looks a lot more impressive after what the Illini did to Penn State last week), so maybe that has something to do with it.

But I just can't see a good-but-not-great Badger squad hanging with the Buckeyes in this game. Being at home helps for sure, but to me this is a 10-point win for Ohio State, easy.

So if Vegas says I only have to give four, that's simply a no-brainer. I'll give the four, pray I'm wrong (for my team's sake) and hope the bad karma Bret Bielema engendered going for two while up 25 on the Gophers doesn't lead to a blowout at home!

There you have them ladies and gentlemen. Four picks for you to peruse, ponder and pontificate on. Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts and concerns below!

That'll wrap things up for me today. I hope to bang out a brief DFTU before the Big Red Road-trip begins! Check back Friday morning to see if that comes to fruition.

Until then, thanks for reading!

10-11-10: Notes

2010-10-11T10:03:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

We're back from another weekend, and while that usually means the standard Monday mumblings and grumblings, this Monday is anything but standard for yours truly.

There are two reasons for that: one, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the latest Twins post-season debacle; and two, I'm working a short week.

Friday, my favorite group of Nebraska Cornhusker fans are tossing me into a vehicle and driving me southwest to Lincoln, NE, for a huge Big 12 contest on Saturday. The Huskers are welcoming the rival Texas Longhorns to Lincoln for their final Big 12 - and likely final of any kind - match-up.

Ever since the Big 8 became the Big 12 these two schools have been at odds with each other. Their most recent controversial finish came in last year's Big 12 Championship game when a last-second clock correction allowed Texas to kick a game-winning field goal which sent them on to the BCS Championship Game where they lost to Alabama, and Nebraska to the Holiday Bowl where they routed Arizona.

The hype for this year's regular season match-up has been building for some time. Nebraska called for a “red-out” at this game weeks ago, and I anticipate the atmosphere at Memorial Stadium to be none too friendly for the visiting Longhorns.

Needless to say, I couldn't be more psyched to go see a Huskers home game for the first time, and a RGC is a definite probability.

But that's not til Saturday.

Today, we've got to deal with some lingering issues from the weekend. And as usual, that means it's Notes time...

Right after the quote!

“I shall not waste my days trying to prolong them.”
- Ian Fleming (1908 - 1964), British author and journalist

Shocking that the guy who invented James Bond would think that obsessing over health was a waste of life, isn't it?

Notes...

Another Twins season comes to an end... and while we all knew what Saturday night's outcome would be, that doesn't make it sting any less.

Me? I couldn't bring myself to watch Game 3. I kept an eye on it online, and flipped over to the game for a minute or two a few times, but I couldn't really sit and watch it.

I'm sure there are some folks who'll chastise me for not watching after I blathered on and on about “hope” on Friday. But that column was written with the understanding that “hope” wasn't going to be renewed in 2010.

So forgive me or not, I knew what was coming on Saturday and chose to deflect the blow a bit.

Yet another sweep at the hands of the Yankees leaves Twins fans wondering where the club goes next. They signed their superstar to a mega-contract, added several veterans and constructed a roster with a payroll around the $100 million mark for the first time in club history.

All of that, and they still got swept by the Yankees. So now what?

First of all, for those folks calling for the manager's head? Please. Stop. Just stop.

Ron Gardenhire has guided his club to the playoffs in six out of his nine years as skipper. He's been flat-out hosed out of the “Manager of the Year” award at least twice, and though some consider him the favorite this season, could up that number to three times if enough voters go for Ron Washington. Gardy's contract runs through next year, and the last I heard, an extension is being discussed as you read this. He's not going anywhere. Nor should he.

As for those added veterans? The consensus seems to be that 2B Orlando Hudson will be moving on to yet another team in 2011. His line of .268/.338/.372 wasn't horrible, but numbers like those he produced can be had for much cheaper.

Jim Thome seems certain to play somewhere in 2011, and I believe the Twins would like to have him back - his role as Justin Morneau insurance was more than worth the money he made this season. The only question with Thome is money. I expect the Twins to make him a fair offer, I also expect that he and his agent will listen if other offers (perhaps from the south side of Chicago?) come calling.

Someone will surely correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe SS J.J. Hardy will be eligible for arbitration in 2011. His 2010 line of .268/.320/.394 didn't set the world on fire, and his absences on the DL were noticeable too. But if the Twins are already set on replacing Hudson at second base, then they'd be wise to hold on to Hardy. I don't think a middle-infield of Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto excites anybody.

Those issues will have to be addressed. Justin Morneau's post-concussion issues will have to be re-evaluated come Spring Training. But perhaps the most important issue the Twins will have to deal with in the off-season is their pitching staff.

Carl Pavano will be fielding some serious offers. The Twins will have to decide how badly they want to keep him. If he departs - heck, even if he doesn't - the Twins are going to have to take a long, hard look at their starting rotation. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn all had stretches where they were abysmally bad. I know the Twins organization likes to be loyal to their veterans, but it seems pretty clear to me that some form of a shake-up is in order.

None of these decisions - outside of Gardy's extension - will be decided soon. Baseball's Winter Meetings and Hot Stove League are all months away. Sadly, that leaves a lot of times for Twins fans to ponder what went wrong and how to fix it for next season.

The Badgers went for a two-point conversion while up 25 points on the Gophers... and I couldn't be more embarrassed for my favorite college football team.

You won't find many people out there who enjoy seeing the Badgers lay a whipping on the Gophers more than me. Regular readers are all too familiar for my disdain for all things Maroon & Gold after the endless taunts that came my while while a student at UW.

That being said, I have no defense whatsoever for what Badger head coach Bret Bielema did on Saturday.

For those unfamiliar with the story, allow me to briefly recap...

Not quite midway through the fourth quarter, Wisconsin scored a touchdown to take a 41-16 lead over Minnesota. Though the Gophers had scored a touchdown on the previous drive and would go on to score another before the game was over (thank you for covering Minnesota!), there was literally not a person in the stadium or watching at home that had any doubt what the outcome would be.

Yet for some reason, Bielema sent his offense back onto the field to try for a two-point conversion. As soon as I saw them line up for the try, I started shaking my head. I knew exactly what was going on. Bielema and Brewster have never been fast friends. In fact, they seem to have developed a sincere mutual enmity towards each other over the years. That's not uncommon for coaches at rival schools.

It is unfortunate, however, that Bielema - sensing that this very well may be the last time he faces Brewster - decided to tweak “Coach Brew” on the way out the door. I understand the temptation, but that doesn't mean I agree with the decision.

Asked about it after the game Bielema said he was simply going by his “coach's card” which details scenarios under which it's advisable to go for two. He then proceeded to offer the following lame justification:

“You know what? If we're playing and somebody is going to go for two against me because they're up 25, that's what they should do, that's what the card says.”

Sorry Bret, you can try and sell it, but I'm not buying.

Though it pains me to say so, I believe Tim Brewster's reaction was for more on the mark:

“I thought it was a very poor decision by a head football coach and he'll have to live with that. It was wrong. Everybody in here knows it and everybody in college football knows it. It was wrong.”

In my opinion, Brewster hasn't been right about much since he got hired at Minnesota, but he's spot-on about this.

Remember, I'm the guy who defended the 70-3 win over Austin Peay because Bielema put in the C-squad and refused to pass the ball. The fact that Austin Peay couldn't stop them wasn't Bielema's fault.

But I can't defend this.

It was a classless move by a coach who ought to know better. The University of Wisconsin, it's players, it's alumni and it's fans certainly deserve better.

Do the right thing, Bret. Quit blaming some bogus “card” and just admit that you made a poor decision in the heat of the moment. Offer an apology to Brewster, to the Gophers, and to your fans and university.

It's the right thing to do.

Speaking of “Brett's Behaving Badly”... Things are going to get really interesting for Brett Favre really quickly.

I'm sure by now most of you have heard of the reports at Deadspin.com alleging that Brett Favre sent inappropriate cell phone pictures (subject matter not safe for work, by the way) and left inappropriate voice mail messages for a female employee of the New York Jets during the season he played there.

Though these remain merely allegations - Ms. Sterger has refused to press any charges or publicly comment on the allegations - the fact that Favre has issued stern “No comments” rather than refute the charges tells me pretty much all I need to know about their veracity.

Now the NFL is looking into the matter and in what could be the oddest ending to a record streak ever seen, Brett may lose his consecutive starts streak to a suspension. Remember Ben Roethlisberger was suspended four games over allegations of sexual misconduct. He was never charged, he was never convicted, but by the terms of the NFL's “Personal Conduct Policy” he was issued a suspension.

We should also remember the flap over the treatment of Ines Sainz at a Jets practice just a few weeks ago, and the emphasis the NFL is now putting on the proper treatment of female reporters and staff members. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is now presented with an opportunity to make an example of a star player over this issue the same way he did with Ben Roethlisberger and sexual misconduct; the same way he did with Plaxico Burress and gun possession; and the same way he did with Pacman Jones and strip clubs.

Some folks will point out that I - along with many, many others - ripped Tiger Woods for his handling of his own infidelity issues last year. So why am I not doing the same thing to Brett here?

Two reasons: one, he still has the opportunity to get out in front of this should he so choose; and two, the league can lay the wood to him far better than I'll ever be able to.

I'm sure Brett's getting a lot of advice from agents and handlers right now on how to deal with this. Ideally, he's come out, admit to whatever needs admitting to and get it over with. Unfortunately, the NFL is far more aggressive with its abilities to suspend players than the PGA is, so if Brett admits to anything, he throws the door wide-open for the league to come down hard on him.

My guess is we're going to see a similar scenario to what Roethlisberger just went through. There won't be any kind of public acknowledgment of the issue until the NFL makes a decision on whether they're going to act or not. Once that happens, we'll likely see a carefully crafted statement either admitting fault, or promising redemption. Perhaps it'll have both, who knows.

Either way, it's another unnecessary distraction for a Vikings team that seems to be unable to stop bringing those on themselves.

That's going to wrap things up for today. Wednesday should be more college football prognostication as I get ready for the trip on Friday with a “heading out of town” version of the DFTU.

Until then, thanks for reading!

10-8-10: DFTU

2010-10-08T10:02:00.001-05:00

Hello again everybody...

I have to start today with a disclaimer: I begin this column as thoroughly bummed out as I've ever been when I've started out to write. So this is either going to be one of the great catharsis columns of all time, or it's going to be the blogging equivalent of wallowing in self-pity.

At this point I honestly can't say which.

Whichever it is, I'm not going to waste your time dithering around with a flighty, nonsensical opening.

Instead, we're getting right to the bloodletting...

Right after the quote...

“Why is there life on this planet?”
- George Chappel (? - ), late night radio host, recreational gaming expert and longtime baseball fan

It's time... once again... for...

Aw, the hell with it.

Dan's Favorite Teams Update

Minnesota Twins: The Twins finished the season with a record of 94-68, won the American League Central, and are one loss away from elimination in their best-of-five ALDS series with the Yankees.

Why do I do this?

Every March I get psyched up for baseball season. I know it's going to be a roller coaster of emotions. I know that there will be thrills and disappointments. I also know that I root for a team that's good enough to make the playoffs more years than not, so it's easy to get excited.

And then come the Yankees.

For the fourth time in the past seven years, the Twins have drawn the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs, and if things go tomorrow like I expect, Minnesota will be sent packing by the Bombers for the fourth time in seven years.

Each time I've convinced myself that *this* is the year. That the Yankees aren't the same juggernaut. That the Twins have finally found some advantage, some small twist that will allow them to finally cast the stone that defeats Goliath.

Each time, Goliath has bitch-slapped me back to reality.

Games 1 & 2 of this year's ALDS have played out in the worst way possible... very repetitively. We've seen this movie so many times before it almost sickens me to rehash the plot.

The Twins jump out to an early lead in Game 1, only to watch the Yankees meticulously and surgically pick away at the lead until they're finally able to jump ahead. Only it's not so far ahead that the Twins lose all hope. No, that doesn't happen until #42 enters the game needing four outs for a New York win, and proceeds to break four bats with his legendary cutter on the way to earning yet another post-season save.

In Game 2 the Twins get the early lead again. This time, however, the Empire strikes right back and grabs the lead in the early/middle innings and never lets it go.

Inning by inning, out by out, pitch by pitch I feel my baseball-loving soul being slowly crushed.

And yet I enter this voluntarily. I don't have to love baseball. I wasn't raised in a family that went to the yard like most families go to church. No one's put a gun to my head and said that I have to buy tickets, that I have to go watch games against dreck teams like the Royals, that I have to set myself up for crushing disappointment come October.

Nope. I, and I alone am responsible for the choice that leads me here more years than not.

So, why? Why do I do that? What possible psychological affliction could I have that causes me to make that choice?

I'll tell you what it is... hope.

That's what baseball's all about folks. Hope.

I believe in my heart that one of these years the Twins will beat the Yankees (despite all evidence to the contrary). Or they'll draw some other team in the first round and beat them. It's going to happen. Maybe next year. Maybe five years from now. Maybe when I'm old and gray. But it will happen.

And when it does, the joy and elation I'll feel will make all of this depression and disappointment worthwhile. All the gut-wrenching, cursing, spitting, hat-throwing, questioning-my-own-existence finishes will be laid to rest under the bright, life-giving sunshine of a World Championship.

It's going to happen.

I've seen two in my lifetime - though I was too young and un-baseball-savvy to appreciate them like I should have - so I know it can happen.

The Twins have too much talent, too much promise, too much of everything that's good about baseball for it not to happen.

And so I have hope. Each March, that hope is reborn in Fort Meyers (or while I vacation in Phoenix). It's honed and forged throughout the Spring and Summer months, and then it's tested in September and October.

I may question it. I may wonder at the psychological health of it. But I'll never surrender it. Not today, not Saturday for Game 3, or whenever it is that the Twins bow out in 2010. Never.

It's why I love the game. It's why I keep coming back.

It's hope.

Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers are 4-1 (0-1) and tied for sixth place in the Big Ten.

Okay, with only one conference game having been played, “sixth place” is kind of meaningless. But I have to dress it up a little bit somehow, right?

Last week was a disappointing loss to Michigan State, though not an unexpected one. Over the first four games of the season, it'd become clear to me that the Badgers had been slightly over-rated coming into this season.

The Spartans are a good, but not great team. At best, the same thing can be said of the Badgers. They simply make too many mistakes in ball security and execution to be any better than that. So when you take a team with Wisconsin's issues on the road against a team the quality of Michigan State, a loss isn't that surprising.

But there are still seven games remaining, and plenty of time for Bucky to get things rolling and position themselves for a upper-tier bowl game.

That journey starts on Saturday as Wisconsin celebrates homecoming against the team voted “most likely to be selected as a homecoming opponent in the Big Ten” - the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Seriously, if you added up how many times the Gophers have been somebody's homecoming opponent over the last decade, you'd be truly stunned by the number. It's that large.

And why not? Homecoming is about alumni. Alumni like wins. The Gophers provide other schools with said wins. Schools like happy alumni because they write big checks. It all adds up.

Not only is it homecoming, it's the continuation of the longest running series in college football history. The Badgers and Gophers play annually for the trophy known as “Paul Bunyan's Axe”. Both schools have cases specially made for that trophy, but Minnesota's has been collecting dust for a while. As in 7 straight years and 13 of the last 15.

I don't expect that to change on Saturday. As I talked about on Wednesday, I think the betting line of Wisconsin -22 is rather ridiculous, but I fully expect Wisconsin to make it eight in a row.

How will they do it? Simple. They're going to run the ball, then they're going to run the ball, and when Minnesota's defense is tired, and breathing heavy, they're going to run the ball some more.

When I heard coming into the season that the starters on the Gopher defense had a combined 17 games started - 11 of which belonged to one player - I knew they'd struggle. I had no idea they'd struggle to the tune of losses to South Dakota and Northern Illinois.

If Minnesota couldn't stop those offenses, I really don't know how they'll stop the one-two punch of Badger running backs John Clay and James White. The 250-pound Clay will punish them, and the speedy White will fly by them.

On second thought, maybe that 22-point spread isn't so ridiculous.

Kickoff is at 11am central time on ESPN. Check your local listings.

Minnesota Wild: The Wild are 0-1-0, which is good for zero points. They're tied for first in the Northwest Division.

How can they be 0-1-0 and tied for first? Easy. Nobody else in the division has played a game yet.

The Wild kicked off the 2010-11 campaign yesterday in Helsinki, Finland, with a 4-3 loss at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes.

In fact, by the time many of you read this, the Wild will be involved or have finished their second game of the season, also in Helsinki, also against Carolina.

For the first time in team history, the Wild are participating in the NHL's now annual trips to open the season in Europe. Due to Minnesota's and Carolina's Finnish contingents, it's only natural that those to clubs open in Helsinki.

Each year, hockey grows internationally, and since it often struggles against the other major sports here in the States, it's more important than ever to grow the game outside of America. These season-opening trips help do just that.

More important than the health of the NHL to Wild fans however, is the health of their favorite team. As much as I like to be optimistic about my favorite hockey team, it's been a tough slog so far.

Tossing in the preseason, the Wild have won exactly one game in 2010. Not the way they wanted to start. Last season the Wild dug themselves a big hole early in the year and weren't able to dig their way out of it. So far, all signs indicate a repeat of that this season.

The Wild improved their roster up the middle, but still lack the defensive grit Minnesota fans grew used to seeing during the franchise's early years. Too many turnovers deep in their own end, too many defensive lapses in front of their own net, and too much time spent on the penalty kill - which isn't going to be amongst the league leaders in efficiency... again - all add up to a rough go of it.

It's early in the year, so I don't want to be all doom and gloom, but when I spoke with a member of the organization yesterday and his response to my, “Thank God it's hockey season” was, “Be careful what you wish for”, well... I wasn't exactly encouraged.

As I said, the Wild play Carolina again today in Helsinki, and then get a stretch of days off to get back into town and get re-acclimated to local time (jet lag's a bitch, eh?). Their next game isn't until next Thursday when they play their home opener at the Xcel Energy Center against the Edmonton Oilers - good seats still available!

That's going to wrap things up for today. Believe it or not, I feel a lot better than I did when I started writing this column. Hopefully you enjoyed it.

I'll be back on Monday as my countdown to Nebraska/Texas officially begins. I can't wait to get to Lincoln and take it all in.

Hopefully it'll produce a kick-ass Running Game Commentary so you can all enjoy the trip as well!

Until then, thanks for reading!

10-7-10: 2010 College Football Picks, Week 6

2010-10-07T10:00:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Hopefully a day late isn't a dollar short in this context.

Yesterday was dedicated to the opening of the 2010 MLB post-season, and what a day it was. The Rangers got Cliff Lee to win games in the post-season, and he delivered. The Phillies got Roy Halladay to win games in the post-season and all he did was throw a no-hitter in his first ever post-season appearance.

And then came Twins/Yankees. What can I say? That was a game the Yankees had to have, and they went and got it. Liriano was good, but not great. The line-up produced four runs, but failed to get hits in a few clutch situations. The Twins weren't bad, the Yankees were just better.

The pressure is squarely on Minnesota now. They have to have Game 2, plain and simple. If they go to New York down 2-0, they're not coming back.

I'm not entirely sure how I'm going to make it through today in one piece. I was a wreck yesterday, and that was just Game 1! At this rate I'm going to start aging in dog years, I swear.

That's all the baseball you're getting today. If I go on too much longer, I'll start having palpitations.

The rest of this column is dedicated to the college gridiron. I'll run down last weeks results and pick four more games for you this week...

Right after the quote...

“Man is the only creature that laughs and weeps, for he is the only animal that is struck with the difference between what things are and what they ought to be.”
- William Hazlitt (1778 - 1830), English writer

What things are? Yankees lead 1-0. What they ought to be? The Twins should be leading 1-0. Thus? I weep.

2010 College Football Picks, Week 6

We begin each week with the results of last weeks picks. I had a horrible Week 4 and needed a solid Week 5 to get back above the oh-so-important .550-mark.

Before we find out whether I got there or not, a quick look at the games which I passed on:

Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Texas: Final Score - Oklahoma 28, Texas 20

And the Longhorns just keep getting worse... Admittedly I thought that the Sooners would win here, but I expected it to be close. 8 points may seem like a fairly close game, but trust me when I say Texas was never in danger of winning this thing. The 'Horns still have plenty of talent, but something's not clicking for them. They may have to become an official “stay away” unless a line looks *really* out of whack.

Northwestern -5.5 at Minnesota: Final Score - Northwestern 29, Minnesota 28

Ah, the Gophers... the gift that keeps on giving. This was yet another in a long line of games that Minnesota should've won and yet somehow found a way to lose. They also continued their nasty streak of covering spreads, however. And it was that exact fear that caused me to stay away from this game. And it *very* likely will cause me to stay away from their game this coming Saturday as well. More on that in a bit...

Boston College +2.5 vs. Notre Dame: Final Score - Notre Dame 31, Boston College 13

Yup, another good “pass”. No way you could predict that a team which had lost three straight would go on the road and lay that kind of thumping on a relatively unknown club like BC. I say “unknown” only because the Eagles previous games really didn't tell us anything about them. That's why I said I was passing, and it's a damned good thing I did.

So if only one of the three teams I passed on actually covered, I must have done okay on the games I actually picked, right? I've typed similar sentences before, and it hasn't always worked out. Let's see if it does this week!

First...

Michigan State +2 vs. Wisconsin: Final Score - Michigan State 34, Wisconsin 24

Dammit I hate when I get a game like this right.

First of all, I should point out that late last week they announced that due to a post-surgery blood clot, Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio wouldn't be coaching from the press box. Instead he'd be back in the hospital undergoing treatment and observation. So that little bit of drama/inspiration wasn't there as I'd feared.

None the less, Wisconsin's lack of discipline and penchant for mistakes was in full effect... exactly as I'd feared.

RB John Clay tweaked his ankle early in the game and was clearly bothered by it for the duration. Freshman James White was a more capable back-up option than I figured he'd be, but there's only so much a guy with his limited experience can be counted on to do.

Meanwhile the passing game was a complete mess. QB Scott Tolzien isn't going to beat teams on his own, but he's fairly capable at distributing the ball. Unfortunately, he can't catch it for his receivers. They have to do that all on their own. And if WR's Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson continue to drop balls at the rate they did this past Saturday, Wisconsin's going to have a devil of a time winning games.

Sparty was able to key on TE Lance Kendricks and remove him as an option for Tolzien which forced him to go to Toon and Anderson even though they clearly weren't having good days. That's how you disrupt the passing game of a team that relies mostly on the run. Kill their confidence in the passing game, and you can put eight or nine guys in the box on first and second down and stuff their running game as well.

Okay. I'm stopping before I depress myself any further. I got the pick right. Let's just leave it at that, shall we?

1-0 and hoping to be happier about future picks.

Next...

Maryland -5.5 vs. Duke: Final Score - Maryland 21, Duke 16

R.I.P “Bet against Duke theory”.

I didn't see a second of this game, so I can't tell you what happened other than the Terps let me down.

Oh, and eff you “magic half-point”. That's twice you've screwed me this season, and only once that you've helped me.

If you're truly adhering to the virtues of sports-prognostication-karma, then you owe me one!!!

1-1 and praying that a “magic half-point” doesn't cost me a 4-0 week.

Thirdly...

Alabama -8.5 vs. Florida: Final Score - Alabama 31, Florida 6

Early on Saturday Marcus Fitzgerald (younger brother of Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald, Jr.) tweeted the following question: “Alabama/Florida, who ya got?”

I responded “The question isn't 'who ya got?', it's 'Alabama by how much?'” Apparently he found this entertaining because I got a “lol” in response.

As it turned out, however, I was exactly correct. Florida couldn't sustain any kind of offense against Alabama's suffocating defense. Meanwhile the Tide's offense went about their business in the same kind of “workmanlike” fashion we've grown to expect.

Anybody doubt that 'Bama's the best team in football right now?

I was as impressed with Oregon's win over Stanford as anybody, but I don't think they can hang with the Tide right now. Them, or anybody else for that matter.

2-1. Really, “magic half-point”? Really?

Finally...

Washington +10 at USC: Final Score - Washington 32, USC 31
*- This game was this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

How about four straight weeks of nailing the Flier Pick?!

And for the Huskies to cover outright? Well that's just icing on my cake! Or dirt on Lane Kiffin's grave, however you want to look at it.

I know college football isn't as simple as A>B, B>C, so A>C. But after the whipping that Nebraska put on Washington, what does that say about the state of the USC program?!

Sure they're facing sanctions and reduced scholarship numbers, but this is a program that's been in the national title hunt for the better part of a decade. Teams like that don't get shaky this fast, do they?

Or maybe it's not about the players? Maybe my criticisms of Lane Kiffin really are valid? I mean, where's the evidence this guy can really coach? He made his bones carrying Pete Carroll's clipboard. He got a job in the NFL which he was woefully unprepared for. He went from there to Tennessee for a year where his club was decent, but not great. And now he's at the helm of a USC mess which doesn't seem like it will get better any time soon.

If his previous stops haven't told us much, I guess I can't judge him too harshly for this particular failure either.

Aw, hell. What am I saying? He's a dope and I couldn't be more happy that Steve Sarkisian's club beat him!

3-1. Screw you “magic half-point”. Screw... you...

Woulda, shoulda, coulda... wasn't.

To be that close to a 4-0 week and miss is heart-breaking. But my pain is salved by the knowledge that 3-1 gets me right back on track towards having a plus-.550 season!

This week's 3-1 (.750) record brings me to a season total of 10-9 (.526). No, I still haven't gotten back to my percentage goal for the year, but I feel a lot better about my prospects than I did last week!

Time to build some momentum. Time to get something rolling.

Time to look at my picks for...

Week 6

First up, the game I took a look at, but decided to pass on...

Saturday, 10/9 - Michigan State +4.5 at Michigan (2:30pm, ABC/ESPN):

That's right. Only one game to consider, but not take this week. I won with Michigan State last week, and was tempted again this week. Michigan's defense gives up yards in chunks, and one good thump sends their quarterback to the sideline. If this game was in East Lansing, I'd be all over it. In Ann Arbor, however, I'm going to say no thank you.

So if the “passes” were scarce, I must be stretching things a bit with my picks, right? Let's find out...

First...

Saturday, 10/9 - Minnesota +22 at Wisconsin (11am, ESPN): The Gophers are 1-4 (0-1 in the Big Ten). The Badgers are 4-1 (0-1 in the Big Ten).

Let me be clear here. I'm not betting Minnesota to win. They won't. I'm not worried about that.

But you could buy a house betting against Wisconsin to cover the spread this season. Where did the Vegas wizards come up with -22 here?!

Sure Wisconsin has one seven in a row, but only two of them qualify as blow-outs. And the last two have been 3-point wins!

I know Minnesota's not very good, but Wisconsin hasn't exactly been a juggernaut this year. (Toss out that Austin Peay game. Sure they won 70-3, but I'm pretty sure I could find 10 buddies and go beat Austin Peay.)

This is a two touchdown game, at the most. This line's WAY too skewed, so I'll take Minnesota and the points and know that if I'm wrong, it'll be because Bucky blew Goldy off the field. Not a bad backup plan.

Next...

Saturday, 10/9 - Arkansas -6 at Texas A&M (2:30pm, find a good bar): The Razorbacks are 3-1 (1-1 in the SEC). The Aggies are 3-1 (0-1 in the Big 12).
*- This game is this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

I had to work long and hard to find this game. I'd like to think it's a solid pick, but I honestly haven't seen much of either club.

Arkansas has put up some solid offensive numbers, led by quarterback Ryan Mallet. Mix in the game that their one loss was against Alabama - and they gave the Tide all they could handle in that game - and I think the Razorbacks are a pretty good club.

Texas A&M has beaten three cupcakes and hung with Oklahoma State on the road. Not bad, but it doesn't prove a whole lot.

The part that worries me most is that it's a road game for Arkansas. If this was a home game, I'd give the six without reservation. But having to travel makes it a dicier proposition.

I'm hoping it turns out like the Georgia game which the Razorbacks won by 7 on the road. I'll give the 6 and hope for the best.

Thirdly...

Saturday, 10/9 - Arizona -7.5 vs. Oregon State (6pm, find a good bar): The Wildcats are 4-0 (1-0 in the Pac 10). The Beavers are 2-2 (1-0 in the Pac 10).

**Magic Half-Point Alert**

I said earlier that the MHP owes me one. This is a great opportunity for it!

Arizona is coming off a bye, meaning they've had two weeks to plan for an Oregon State team that's lost to Boise State and TCU, while beating Arizona State.

The Beavers have some talent and quickness, especially at the running back position. Arizona has a pretty stout defense. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

Ultimately I think 'Zona has more than Oregon State can handle, and since they're at home, we'll go with the 'Cats here.

Take the 7.5 Beavers and go chuck some wood!

Finally...

Saturday, 10/9 - Northwestern -9.5 vs. Purdue (6:30pm, Big Ten Network): The Wildcats are 5-0 (1-0 in the Big Ten). The Boilermakers are 2-2 (0-0 in the Big Ten).

This line is 100% a testament to how beat-up the Boilermakers are. They've lost their starting quarterback, running back and several members of their defense to injury. It's no fun whatsoever being Purdue coach Danny Hope right now.

The Wildcats, on the other hand, escaped Minnesota with a win despite a sloppy effort, turning the ball over multiple times. They're back at home for this contest, and that'll help. But if they don't fix their ball discipline issues, that 9.5-point cushion they're giving Purdue will seem rather large.

9.5 is a lot of points to give when the team you're wagering on doesn't have the stoutest defense in the world. But what am I going to do? Take the team that lost to Toledo in their last game? I don't think so.

Take the 9.5 Purdue and best of luck. Please don't make me wish I had two Flier Picks this week!

So there you have them. Four picks for you to question, criticize and contemplate.

That'll wrap things up for today. I'll be back tomorrow - hopefully with better baseball news - for the usual end of the week DFTU wonderment.

Until then, thanks for reading!

10-6-10: MLB Post-Season Mayhem

2010-10-06T10:01:00.003-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Let the mayhem begin!

The 2010 MLB post-season begins today, and that's a big enough deal to me to hold off my weekly college football picks until tomorrow.

Today it's all baseball. There are four division series to look at. Three start today and the fourth begins tomorrow.

Who wins, who loses? That's anybody's guess. (Although I did call Phillies/Yankees back in March.)

Today, I'll tell you what each of the eight teams needs to do to win their series. From there, you all can take your best guesses as to who will win.

Sounds good? Let's get to it...

Right after the quote...

“Think twice before you speak, and then you may be able to say something more insulting than if you spoke right out at once.”
- Evan Esar (1899 - 1995), American humorist

Good advice is always clever in it's delivery, no?

MLB Post-Season Mayhem

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: Yankees won the season series 4-2

What the Twins need to do to win:

There's no question that New York has owned the Twins in recent years. That psychological advantage is real and shouldn't be underestimated.

But that doesn't mean the Twins can't win this series. The way I see it there are three things they need to do:

One, the Twins' left-handed pitchers have to be on their game. The Twins start southpaws in Games 1 and 3 (Liriano and Duensing), and have two pretty solid situational lefties in the bullpen in Brian Fuentes and Jose Mijares. Why is that so important? Because New York has struggled this season against good left-handed pitching.

Let's take a look at the Yankees probable line-up and how they've fared - batting average/on-base/slugging - against left-handed pitching:

1- Derek Jeter, SS .321/.393/.481

2- Curtis Granderson, CF .234/.292/.354

3- Mark Teixeira, 1B .278/.413/.528

4- Alex Rodriguez, 3B .217/.314/.441

5- Robinson Cano, 2B .285/.343/.514

6- Nick Swisher, RF .294/.415/.433

7- Jorge Posada, C .257/.340/.493

8- Lance Berkman/Marcus Thames, DH .171/.261/.256 - .300/.352/.454

9- Brett Gardner, LF .252/.373/.352

So as you can see, New York has exactly two potential starters that hit over .300 against lefties. In the cases of Granderson, Rodriguez, Berkman and Gardner, there's a significant drop-off in their splits against left-handed pitchers.

If the Twins starters are good, and manager Ron Gardenhire can mix and match his bullpen in the late innings, the Twins will have a good shot.

Two, their lineup needs to produce. Minnesota scored a lot of runs this season (781), but they scored the fewest of any of the AL playoff teams. Denard Span and Orlando Hudson need to have success getting on base early in this series to set up RBI opportunities for Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome and Michael Cuddyer.

Three, the mental errors that have plagued the Twins in the past when they've faced New York have to be eliminated. No base-running blunders. No fielding errors. No missed signs. They need to play relaxed and confident from the get go. If they get tight and start pressing, they're dead.

What New York Needs to do to win:

Simply put: they need to be the Yankees.

As I mentioned, New York owns a solid psychological edge over Minnesota. For that edge to come into play, CC Sabathia needs to come out and have a dominant Game 1.

Yes, the Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitching, but they hit .309 off of Game 1 Twins starter Francisco Liriano in the two games in which they faced him this season. If they can put some runners on base early and keep Liriano from getting into a groove, they have an excellent chance to win.

If they win Game 1, they put all the pressure in the world on the Twins to win Game 2. And as we've seen in the past, the Twins don't play well against the Yankees when they're under that kind of pressure.

Game 1 is even more critical when you consider the fact that New York has no idea what they're going to get from Andy Pettitte in Game 2. Pettitte has been dominant against the Twins in the past, but with his balky back and coming off a groin injury, there's no way to know how long he'll be able to go.

The Yankees have to win one of the first two games at Target Field, and clearly Game 1 is going to be their best shot. If they get the win tonight, they can salt things away at home. If not, then the pressure will be squarely on them to win Game 2, because if they don't win that one, the series is all but over before it ever goes to Yankee Stadium.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers: The Rays won the season series 4-2

What Tampa needs to do to win:

The Rays are perhaps the most balanced team in the AL playoffs. They have pitching, hitting, speed and defense.

For them to win this series, they need to maintain that balance.

While all of those elements have been demonstrated over the course of the year, they haven't always been there at the same time. Every team goes through ups and downs, but the key in the post season is to be firing on all cylinders.

David Price, James Shields, Matt Garza and Wade Davis all won double-digit games for the Rays this year. Price is dominant and will be in the mix for the AL Cy Young. Shields didn't have a great record, but struck out only one fewer batter than Price. Garza threw a no-hitter this season, but has been shelled plenty of times as well. When these guys are on, they can wear you out. When they're not... well, outside of Price they can be pretty dicey.

Their line-up trails only the Yankees in all of baseball in producing runs. Evan Longoria had an OPS of .879 and Carl Crawford wasn't far behind him at .851. Carlos Pena led the club with 28 home runs. Scoring runs isn't a problem for Tampa. Doing so consistently against a guy like Cliff Lee? That's another story.

For the Rays to win this series, they're going to have to get quality starts from their rotation and consistent scoring from their line-up.

What Texas needs to do to win:

Cliff Lee, Cliff Lee, Cliff Lee.

When you make a deal like the one the Rangers did to get Cliff Lee, you do so with the hopes he can carry you in October. Well, it's October now, and if Texas doesn't get dominant performances from him in this series, they have no shot. He'll go in Game 1 and likely in Game 4.

What's not in Texas' favor? Lee faced the Rays three times this season, lost all three, and compiled a 4.54 ERA along the way. Two of those games, however, were while he was still with Seattle, and as we all know, “Seattle” and “run support” don't occur in the same sentence with out a “lack of” in the middle of them.

The other key for Texas will be the health of Josh Hamilton. Hamilton injured his ribs in the teams second trip to Minnesota, and hasn't been a consistent contributor since. The odds-on favorite to win AL MVP, Hamilton will be crucial to Texas' chances of beating Tampa. If he's effective in the line-up it forces teams to pitch to the batters around him which makes guys like David Murphy, Michael Young and Vladimir Guerrero serious threats.

Texas is the underdog here, but if Tampa's pitching stumbles, they could slug their way to a trip to the ALCS.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: Philadelphia won the season series 5-2.

What the Phillies need to do to win:

Keep on a'rollin.

Philly was 50-25 in the second half and a blistering 21-6 in September. That's because they have perhaps the most fearsome 1-2-3 pitching punch in all of baseball, and the meat of their order can pound out runs at a prodigious rate.

Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels have all been outstanding down the stretch. If they're as good as advertised in the post-season, I'm not sure anyone can beat Philadelphia.

What Philly fans should fear, however, is the unknown. Halladay's never pitched in the post-season. Oswalt has limited experience as an Astro (2004-05). Hamels ironically has the most post-season experience of the three, but his playoff numbers are pretty average (5-3, 3.86).

Playoff baseball can mess with players heads sometimes. If it messes with those three, the Reds have a shot to pull off the upset.

Offensively, Philly's best players have to be their best players (copyright The Hammer). Five of the nine Phillies position players have OPS's near or over .800. That's a pretty sick number. If Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth all produce, Philly will score 4 or 5 runs per game at least. And if they do that, Cincinnati has to score 5 or 6 against the Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels troika to win.

Not likely.

What the Reds need to do to win:

Pray.

For all the reasons stated above, Cincinnati is the clear underdog in this series.

But the Reds have over-achieved and defied expectations all season long. There's no reason they can't continue that into the post-season.

First and foremost, presumptive NL MVP Joe Votto has to have a monster series. We know the Phillies can score. We know that runs will be at a premium against Philadelphia's pitching. For the Reds to have a shot, Votto has to be the MVP of the series. He has to get his hits, he has to drive in runs, he has to force Philadelphia to pitch to the guys around him in the line-up, and those guys have to take advantage of his presence.

As for Cincinnati's pitching? Well they have to be better than advertised. Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto were the only Reds starters to win double-digit games, and coincidentally, they were the only starters with 20+ starts who had ERA's lower than 4.00. If that's an indication of how Cincy will pitch in the post-season, they'll be out early. But if they can find some magic from their starters, they have the tools to pull off the upset. Francisco Cordero saved 40 games for the Reds this season. If they get late into a game with a lead, he can shut the door.

The Reds will need a lot of breaks to fall their way, but that's been their story in 2010. A win here is absolutely possible.

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: The Braves won the season series 4-3.

What the Giants need to do to win:

Their pitching has to be dominant and they have to find a way to score enough runs.

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez. That might be the best pitching threesome outside of Philadelphia. But each has had their struggles this season.

There was a point in the middle of the year where Lincecum was pretty awful. But whatever the problem was, he fixed it and has had an outstanding home-stretch. Cain's been the most consistent of the three. Sanchez is clearly the “weak link”, if you want to call a guy with “13-9, 3.07” numbers “weak”.

If those three are on their games, Atlanta's going to have a rough go. But that's a definite “if”.

No team in the playoffs - AL or NL - scored fewer runs this season than San Francisco. Their pitching was good enough to make up for that in the regular season. But in the playoffs, you have to be able to score to win series.

Against Atlanta in 2010, the Giants hit .197 with a .582 OPS. They simply have to hit better than that, or it doesn't matter how good their pitching is.

C Buster Posey has been the team's best hitter since he joined the club, but relying on a rookie in the post-season is a dicey proposition. 1B Aubrey Huff can step up, and so can 3B Pablo Sandoval. If those three guys knock it around some, San Francisco can definitely win this series.

If not, well, those three starters better be pitching shut-outs every night.

What the Braves have to do to win:

Like the Giants, the Braves will also have to lean on their pitching and find a way to scratch out some runs.

Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson can be a formidable pitching threesome, but Hanson is awfully young and Hudson has been struggling of late (September/October = 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA).

As I mentioned, they're not facing murderer's row by any means in the Giants, but they still need to step up, because they're not likely to get a ton of run support themselves.

Like San Francisco, Atlanta's best hitter is also a rookie, Jason Heyward. The beauty of this series is that you'll see the top two NL Rookie of the Year candidates (Heyward and Posey) duke it out. It won't impact the award (those votes are already cast), but it will be interesting to see how they respond to the pressure.

After Heyward, Brian McCann, Troy Glaus, Chipper Jones and Martin Prado were the Braves best hitters. Prado is out with an injury and Jones is one bad sneeze/cough from being out.

Atlanta's ability to score runs has mystified me all season. If they hadn't proven me wrong over 162 games, I'd have serious doubts about them heading into the post season. But they have proven me wrong, so I have to give them a shot in this series.

So there you have them folks. Eight teams. Four series. Some are closer than others, but every last one of them will be damned interesting to watch.

All of the games are on TBS. Check your local listings for starting times.

That'll do it for today. I'm back tomorrow with a special Thursday edition of my college football picks.

Until then, thanks for reading!

10-4-10: Peek at the Picks, Vol. 5

2010-10-04T10:05:00.004-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Here we go!

The regular season is over, and the post-season is set to begin!

For Twins fans, we all knew this was coming, right? Once again Minnesota's in the playoffs and once again their opponent will be the New York Yankees.

When people asked me who I wanted the Twins to face in the first round, naturally I said the Rays. That's not any disrespect to them. It's just that New York has owned a distinct psychological advantage over the Twins for the last few years.

But now that it's been decided, and once again the Yankees will be the Twins first-round opponent, I'm starting to think that perhaps it's strangely appropriate.

I'm put in mind of the 2004 Red Sox (I want to write it, but they won four and I promised I wouldn't anymore). The Yankees were in their heads too. New York had dominated that “rivalry” - for lack of a better term - for ages on end.

It's almost as though Boston (grrrrr) had to slay that particular dragon before they could go on to win their pair of World Championships. I'm starting to believe that perhaps the Twins are in a similar position.

Maybe they're catching New York at the right time. Maybe there's some magic in Target Field that will cause the breaks to go Minnesota's way instead of New York's. Maybe this is Minnesota's year to steal second off Posada and make a dramatic comeback against Rivera.

Maybe, just maybe, this will be the year.

We'll find out starting Wednesday night. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm on TBS. Check your local listings.

With another season finished, it's time for a look back at my preseason picks, and how they turned out. And we'll get to that...

Right after the quote.

“Foolish writers and readers are made for each other.”
- Horace Walpole (1717 - 1797), English art historian, man of letters, antiquarian and politician

Who you callin' “foolish” Walpole?!

2010 Peek at the Picks, Vol. 5

Before each baseball season, I pick the final standings for each of the six divisions. Periodically throughout the year, I compare the current MLB standings to my picks. I've even sought the help of one of my mathematically-inclined friends to create the Kelley Formula to measure how well I'm doing.

Today, we break down the final standings from 2010.

AL East:

Final Standings: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees -1, Boston Red Sox (sonuva ...) -7, Toronto Blue Jays -11, Baltimore Orioles -30

Dan's Picks: New York, Boston (you realize this is killing me right?), Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Toronto

Kelley Formula Results: 14 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: Thanks a ton, New York! You had the division in your hands to win, and not only did you piss it away, you cost me my “whom I hate” tag! Do you seriously think I'd have offered that up if I thought there was a chance in hell you'd drop four of six to a club with more medical bills than Jimmy Carter?! (Too soon? I can never tell.)

Fine. Be that way. I hope the Twins sweep you bums and you get railed on by the New York media for the next six months. Jerks.

Congratulations to the Rays. They clearly exceeded my expectations. I hope, for their sakes, they pull out all the stops this post season. Given their financial shape, the 2011 Rays will look a good bit different from this year's version.

The Red Sox (please?) had one of those lost years. Every team has to deal with injuries, but Boston (come on!) was plagued in a way that they simply couldn't recover from. It's going to be a very interesting off-season in New England. There's every reason to believe that they could be right back in the hunt next year. Ah, Boston (one more time, for old times sake?) how you vex me. No, I still don't like them very much.

The Blue Jays are an interesting club. They led the AL in home runs this year, but their pitching was young and not deep enough to allow them to truly compete in the East. They're certainly better than I thought they were going to be though. I have to give them that.

Baltimore got things headed in the right direction when they hired Buck Showalter. Unfortunately for them, they didn't make that hire until they were way too far behind to be any kind of factor. The 34-22 record they amassed during his time at the helm bodes well for 2011. I'm not ready to say they'll compete for the division, but combined with Toronto's improvement, I can just about guarantee that the East will be the best division in baseball in 2011.

AL Central:

Final Standings: Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox -6, Detroit Tigers -13, Cleveland Indians -25, Kansas City Royals -27

Dan's Picks: Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland

Kelley Formula Results: 18 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: Tied for my best division score (with the NL East) here. I suppose that makes sense in a way since I'm more familiar with these five clubs as a group than any other in baseball.

The Twins excelled despite losing their All-Star closer in spring training and their All-Star/MVP first baseman in July. That's astonishing when you think about it. How many clubs could lose two key cogs like that and still end up winning 94 games? Their new home Target Field was a raging success and they're set up well to compete in the Central for years to come.

The White Sox led the Central for a good chunk of the season. But when the chips were down and the season was to be decided, they folded like a house of cards. I truly hope their meltdown doesn't cost Ozzie Guillen his job. He's far too entertaining to allow to go somewhere else!

Around mid-season, I was convinced the Tigers were the Twins' main competition for the division. Sadly for them, they experienced their own rash of injuries, and their pitching didn't hold up the way I expected. Their 52-29 home record was tied with New York for the second best in the AL... one game behind the Twins.

Kansas City? Well, they're still the Royals. It's sad. Kansas City was once one of the best baseball towns in the country. And it probably could be again. But given the awful state the organization is in, I doubt it will be any time soon. I pity Royals fans. I really do. Having to watch that dreck for 162 games per year ought to earn them some sort of tax write-off at least!

I knew when I saw them in spring training that Cleveland was going to be bad. I had no idea it would be this colossally bad. Talk about your lost seasons. And what's worse, I don't see any reason to believe they'll be better next year.

There's a clear pair of tiers in the AL Central. Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit can all contend over the next few years. Cleveland and Kansas City? Not so much.

AL West:

Final Standings: Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics -9, Los Angeles Angels -10, Seattle Mariners -29

Dan's Picks: Los Angeles, Seattle, Texas, Oakland

Kelley Formula Results: 8 of a possible 16 points

Analysis: Along with the NL West, this division tripped me up as bad as any. Two things cost me dearly: one, the Angels seriously under-performed; and two, Seattle was awful beyond belief.

I have to give the Rangers credit. I didn't know they had it in them. Certainly we've seen a lot of young talent pass through Arlington, TX, but this year, they actually managed to make it through a season without a mid-summer collapse. The trade for Cliff Lee cost them a good chunk of prospects, so hopefully they're able to re-sign him this off-season. Otherwise, there's a danger the club to take a step backwards in 2011.

Perhaps the most surprising team in the division was Oakland. I had them on life-support when the season began. But through hard work and a surprisingly good young pitching staff, they were able to hang around the .500 mark most of the year. They still don't score a lot of runs, so they'll need to upgrade their offense in order to seriously contend. But they've got a shot.

The Angels were one of my big disappointments really. I'm a big fan of Mike Scioscia's managerial skills, but even he couldn't coax life out of this club this season. I know they lost Lackey and Vlad before the season started, but still, they should've been better than this.

What can I say about Seattle? It's not often you see a team that's so bad they get their future Hall of Famer to retire mid-season as well as getting their manager fired. That's a helluva daily double! It's my opinion that as bad as they were, they're still going to end up with a Cy Young winner this season. Other than that, there aren't many more positives to point to with this club.

NL East:

Final Standings: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves -6, Florida Marlins -17, New York Mets -18, Washington Nationals -28

Dan's Picks: Philadelphia, Florida, Atlanta, New York, Washington

Kelley Formula Results: 18 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: For two years in a row, this division has been one of my best. I have no idea why. I struggled when I put my picks together to decide between Atlanta and Florida for the second spot. I went with Florida only because I thought they could produce more offense. Woops.

Philadelphia was once again the class of this division. I picked them to win the World Series in spring training, and if I had to make the pick again right now, I don't think I'd change it. The Phillies took their sweet time getting going, but now that they are, they're exactly the force I thought they'd be. Strong pitching, All-Stars at multiple positions and a line-up that can compete with anybody in baseball. I don't want to jinx them, but they have to be the odds-on favorite to win the NL pennant.

Atlanta leaned hard on their pitching staff to carry them, but found some offense along the way too. Chipper Jones wasn't as much of a factor as they'd hoped with all his injuries, but Troy Glaus and rookie sensation Jason Heyward more than made up for it. Their first round series against the Giants should be a doozy. If you're a betting man, just take the “under”. Trust me.

Florida had the opportunity to be a contender this season, but internal strife killed their chances. Chemistry isn't as big a factor as people would like to believe, but if your most important players hate each other and no one can get along with the manager, you're not going to win enough games to be in the mix.

The Mets are a mess. They're firing their GM and their Manager, and deservedly so. A team that spends as much money as they do has to get more out of it than 79-83. Especially in a town where you're already second-best to the Yankees.

Washington still isn't very good, and with Strasburg's Tommy John surgery, it'll be a little longer until they start showing results. But if they hang with the direction they're headed, being in the mix isn't as far off as it may seem. There's a lot of talent there. I'm not sold on their skipper, and with a new GM coming in, that situation may change. Let's just say I won't be making any “if they were playing in my kitchen” jokes about this club any time soon.

NL Central:

Final Standings: Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals -5, Milwaukee Brewers -14, Houston Astros -15, Chicago Cubs -16, Pittsburgh Pirates -34

Dan's Picks: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh

Kelley Formula Results: 16 of a possible 24 points

Analysis: Last year this was one of my better divisions. This year? Not as much.

First of all, congratulations to the Cincinnati Reds. I knew they had some talent, but I had no clue they were going to make a leap like this. Their pitching was good, though that was expected. What wasn't expected was the quantum leap 1B Joey Votto made. He's had loads of potential his entire career, but this was the first season that he managed to put things together offensively to carry this club, and he carried it all the way to a division title. MVP material, anyone?

Secondly, what the hell happened to the St. Louis Cardinals?! I understand they have some holes, but for them to flop down the stretch in this division is almost unforgivable. I say “almost” because at this point Tony LaRussa has earned the right to have a bad stretch or two. But if they had a less-established manager and had a season like the one they just had? Exit visas would be imminent.

The Brewers will be announcing some time today that they're not exercising their option on manager Ken Macha's contract, and I couldn't be more in favor of the move. The last thing a club with their talent needs is a guy who feels the need to re-invent the wheel 162 times a year. Maybe Macha can get the Mets job. All his tinkering would go over like gangbusters in New York! Oh, and Milwaukee is still in desperate need of some pitching help.

Houston is a baseball enigma. They've got an overbearing owner who inserts himself into operations more than he should. They're also an impatient organization in a sport that demands poise, restraint and big-picture thinking. They made a big trade to send Oswalt to Philly. Now let's see if they've got the patience to develop the pieces they got in return.

The Cubs are an interesting situation. Every year it seems there's a new bit of drama on the north side, and 2010 was no different. It's entirely understandable why Lou Pinella left, but how often do you see that happen to a club? It'd be one thing if there was a lot of talent and this was a low-payroll club. But they spent an awful lot of money on guys who didn't perform up to expectations. Things can only get better though, right. I mean it's not like they could be worse than the...

Pirates. Oof. Poor, poor Pittsburgh. At least the Steelers are 3-1, right? Oof.

NL West:

Final Standings: San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres -2, Colorado Rockies -9, Los Angeles Dodgers -12, Arizona Diamondbacks -27

Dan's Picks: Colorado, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego

Kelley Formula Results: 10 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: I improved a little bit here only because the Padres faded down the stretch. And believe it or not, I think that's a shame.

For San Diego to have led this division for as long as they did was truly remarkable, and skipper Bud Black ought to get some hardware for it. The Padres strength was clearly their pitching staff, and that should be expected given that their manager is a former pitcher and pitching coach. Now the front office needs to build on what they did this season and get them some line-up help. If this club had scored even an average amount of runs this season, they'd have run away with the division.

San Francisco also had some trouble scoring, but thanks to uber-rookie catcher Buster Posey, they put together just enough offense to win the West. As I said earlier, their series with Atlanta won't be one of offensive wonder. But I'm looking forward to it more than any series other than Twins/Yankees, simply because we could see 1-0 gems every time they play.

Colorado really let me down this season. I figured the Dodgers would take a step back and open the door for somebody, and the Rockies run at the end of last season convinced me they'd be the team to do it. But as good as Ubaldo Jimenez was (and he was brilliant) they couldn't ever put together any kind of consistent effort. When the offense got going, the pitching faltered, and vice versa. Usually I put that on the manager, but Jim Tracy was the one who engineered their turnaround in the first place. Maybe by next spring I'll have figured out what happened!

Like I said, I figured the Dodgers would take a step back. I didn't figure they'd take three steps back. This is another spot where there will be a new skipper in 2011, and I'm not sure that's going to help. I know Don Mattingly is a solid baseball guy, but as a first time skipper? It's going to be very interesting to see how he handles these guys given their inability to perform for Joe Torre.

As for the Diamondbacks? Well you've heard me bitch and moan about them every Friday for the entire season, so I won't belabor the point here. They're also making a managerial announcement today, only in their case it's that Kirk Gibson will get the “interim” tag removed from his title as manager. Along with new GM Kevin Towers, he's got a lot of work to do to get this ship righted. But as San Diego showed this year, the distance from “last place” to “contender” isn't as far as you might think.

Total:

Combined Kelley Formula Results: 84 of a possible 120 points (70%)

2009 Kelley Formula Results: 87 of a possible 120 points (72.5%)

Analysis: When you're dealing with a 120 point scale, a difference of three points is pretty negligible. But given that I'd be throwing my shoulder out of whack patting myself on the back had I improved to 90 points, I have to take my lumps for finishing with 84.

It's funny. I actually thought that I had a better handle on this season going into it than I did in 2010. But the Kelley Formula doesn't lie!

Still, to be right on an average of seven out of ten times in baseball? I'll take it.

That's going to wrap things up for today. The playoffs start Wednesday, so I've got to figure out how I'm going to preview that and bring you the usual college football goodness all at the same time.

Uber-column? Special Thursday college football column? There are several possibilities. We'll see.

Until... well, whatever I decide to do... thanks for reading!

10-1-10: DFTU

2010-10-01T10:01:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

We've done it once again! The weekend is nigh, and it's a special one since it sees the end of yet another baseball regular season.

For some teams (the Diamondbacks) it's a merciful finish to a terrible season. For others (the Twins) it marks the accomplishment of one goal - a division title - and the beginning of a quest for more hardware - an American League pennant and a World Series trophy.

That means there's a lot of Updating to do, so let's get right to it...

Right after the quote.

“The length of a film should be directly related to the endurance of the human bladder.”
- Alfred Hitchcock (1899 - 1980), English filmmaker and producer

That's why I stick to the written word folks... bladder endurance!

It's Friday, and that means it's time... once again... for everybody's favorite segment...

Dan's Favorite Teams Update

Minnesota Twins: The Twins are 93-66 and have long since clinched the AL Central championship.

And it's a damned good thing they have.

Look, intellectually I know that the sweep in Detroit and dropping two of three in Kanas City doesn't really mean anything. The Twins have been trying to get healthy and when you don't have Joe Mauer in the lineup for 9 straight games, eventually you're going to have a losing streak.

It's especially meaningless since neither the Rays or the Yankees were able to seize control of home field advantage in the AL.

All that being said, however, it was a difficult stretch to be a fan. In your head, you know what's happening and not to fret, but in your heart, it pains you to see your club go through a terrible stretch like that as they approach the postseason.

More troubling than any of the lineup issues was the problems with the pitching. There weren't injuries there. These were the guys you're going to count on heading into October getting pounded by an injury-depleted lineup in Detroit and Kansas-freaking-City.

I know that mentally, a let-down after a title is clinched is only natural. But that doesn't make it any easier to watch.

I just keep telling myself that as long as they play well against Toronto, then none of the Detroit or Kansas City nonsense matters a lick. That's my story... and I'm sticking to it.

Of course, it didn't start well last night as Francisco Liriano gave up 5 runs in his 5 1/3 innings and the Twins got bombed 13-2. But most of the relievers that got lit aren't going to be on the postseason roster, and they got Mauer and Hardy back into the line-up while looking fairly crisp defensively.

I know, I know. I might be reaching a bit there, but with the club headed for the post-season, I need all the positive thoughts I can muster.

The Twins have three more to go in the regular season, and the pitching match-ups look like this:

Friday: Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.83) vs. Ricky Romero (13-9, 3.79)

Saturday: Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.44) vs. Sean Marcum (13-8, 3.63)

Sunday: Nick Blackburn (10-11, 5.55) vs. Marc Rzepczynksi (3-4, 5.56)

Hopefully the boys finish out strong! Remember, Game 1 of the ALDS begins on Wednesday. The game will be broadcast on TBS, check your local listings!

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D'backs are 64-94, in last place in the NL West and 26 games behind the San Francisco Giants.

At least they can't lose 100 games?

I don't know. How many positives can I come up with for what's going to be the last appearance for Arizona in the DFTU in 2010?

Not many.

Clearly this was a lost season for the Snakes. I was skeptical about those who suggested that Arizona might compete for the division title. But I certainly didn't foresee them finishing dead last either.

Last week I told you about the hiring of Kevin Towers as the new General Manager. The more I hear about his plans, the more I think it was a great move. The D'backs set a new record for most strikeouts by a team in a single season on Wednesday. That can't continue, and according to Towers won't be tolerated.

While I've spent time in the past saying that I didn't have a huge problem with 3B Mark Reynolds' strikeout totals (a position which I stand by), the cumulative strikeouts by the team were a large part of their offensive troubles. So to hear Towers make that a point of emphasis is encouraging.

Also encouraging is his focus on pitching. Remember, the success that San Diego is currently enjoying is based in no small part on Towers' philosophy of “pitching first”. The Diamondbacks have some talent in their starting staff, but the bullpen is going to need a serious off-season makeover. It sounds like Towers is just the guy to do it.

One final bit of news, it sounds more and more like Kirk Gibson is going to have the “interim” label taken off his title as field manager. Most stories I've read indicate it will be a two-year deal, which is short, but understandable since Towers' deal is only two years long itself.

I know with that record it seems like Arizona is a long way from contending, but I'll point again to San Diego who went from worst to contenders in just one season. It can happen folks. Don't give up hope!

Before the D'backs are allowed to saunter off into the off-season, there are three more games with the Dodgers to complete. Here are the match-ups:

Friday: Zach Kroenke (0-0, 21.60) vs. John Ely (4-9, 5.10)

Saturday: John Saunders (3-6, 4.40) vs. Chad Billingsley (11-11, 3.61)

Sunday: Rodrigo Lopez (7-15, 5.02) vs. Ted Lilly (9-12, 3.71)

Have a good off-season boys. Hope is renewed in March!

Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers are 4-0 (0-0 in the Big Ten).

Here we go!

The Big Ten season kicks off in earnest this week as the Badgers travel to meet the Michigan State Spartans.

For those of you who missed Wednesday's column, I'll briefly recap my feelings: I'm freaking terrified of this game.

Not because I think Michigan State is a markedly better club, they're not.

What scares me is the opportunity for this to be one of those flukey, storybook seasons for the folks in East Lansing. They already have a made-for-Hollywood victory over Notre Dame. Head coach Mark Dantonio made an uber-gutsy fake field goal call in overtime to beat the Irish.

He then proceeded to have an heart attack later that night.

He missed last week's non-conference finale as he recovered from surgery, but will be back coaching from the press box this week.

Sounds like a movie script a bit, doesn't it?

Also distressing is the notion of taking an somewhat undisciplined club on the road to open the Big Ten Slate.

Wisconsin has turned the ball over only four times (two interceptions, two fumbles), but has put the ball on the ground a worrisome seven times in only four games. Eventually if they don't get their ball security issues cleared up, those numbers are going to skew the other way and cost them some ballgames.

While their penalty numbers aren't bad (averaging only 25 yards of penalties per game), it's when they've come that has been a problem. Too many penalties in the red zone will turn touchdowns into field goals. And in the Big Ten, that'll cost you games as well.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope that the Badgers surprise me with a superlative effort on Saturday. I just think this game has all the makings of a close loss for Wisconsin.

Kickoff is at 11am central on ESPN/ABC, check your local listings.

Minnesota Wild: The Wild finished their preseason slate last night with a 0-4-2 record and are en route to open the season in Helsinki, Finland on Thursday.

This is another case where I hope I'm wrong.

While the Wild did an admirable job adding to their depth this off-season, they still lack the big-time talent necessary to be a factor in the playoffs.

As G.M. Chuck Fletcher continues to re-make the roster, the hope for this season is to compete for a playoff spot.

Last season the Wild dug themselves a hole right out of the gate with a 2-7-0 start over the first couple of weeks of the season. They improved as the season went along and even had a couple of downright hot streaks, but it was never enough to allow them to truly compete for a postseason berth.

It's difficult to judge how things will go based on the preseason slate. Teams use the preseason to give younger players looks with the big squad, and you're not always fielding/facing true NHL level rosters.

That being said, the Wild haven't given fans much to be encouraged by. Yes, there is young talent here. Yes, they've gotten deeper at Center. But there have still been way too many of the same mistakes deep in their own end, spotty goaltending, and somnambulant special teams.

Those are the things that cost Minnesota dearly last year, and it doesn't appear - at least early on - that things have changed all that much.

Last year there were excuses about learning a new system. This year, you can't fall back on that. I know the changes that Fletcher and head coach Todd Richards want to make can't be made overnight, but the Wild are already seeing fan discontent at the gates. Their “consecutive sell-outs” streak was broken by the first preseason home game. And based on the games since then, there's no indication that they're in danger of starting another streak soon.

I hate to sound so pessimistic in the first appearance for the Wild this season, but the truth's the truth folks.

Maybe they boys will soak in a magic sauna in Finland and things will start clicking. But if they get off to a similarly slow start (like 2009-10), then this could be a loooooooong season!

Opening day is on Thursday as the Wild battle the Hurricanes in Helsinki. The puck drops at 11am central time, again, check your local listings!

That'll wrap things up for this week. Have a safe and restful weekend!

My plan is to be back on Monday to take one final Peek at the Picks before getting ready for MLB postseason madness on Wednesday!

Until then, thanks for reading!

9-29-10: 2010 College Football Picks, Week 5

2010-09-29T10:05:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Welcome to a Wednesday.

Usually this is the spot where I say something clever and entertaining about something that doesn't have much to do with the rest of the column.

But after watching the Twins lose five in a row, and look gawd-awful doing it, I really don't feel all that chipper frankly.

I know I shouldn't panic. I know that the club is resting guys and trying to get things in order for the Division Series. But I can't help but be a little unsettled.

What did I just see on Twitter?

STAR WARS IS BEING RE-RELEASED IN THE THEATERS IN 3D?!?!

I love life.

Let's get to the football picks while life is still good, shall we? We shall...

Right after the quote.

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
- Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962), Danish physicist

I may have used this one before, but trust me, it's apropos for today!

2010 College Football Picks: Week 5

Starting us off this week, as every week, a look at last week's picks. We begin with those I looked at, but passed on:

Penn State -14 vs. Temple: Final Score - Penn State 22, Temple 13

Count this one as a lesson learned. I picked Penn State to cover versus Temple last season and they failed. This season, I chose to pass on the game, even though 14 seemed to be a reasonable number, and Penn State failed to cover again. In fact, the Lions trailed the owls 13-9 at halftime! I'm not sure what it is about Temple that has JoPa so flustered, but clearly this is a stay-away match-up from now on!

Army +6.5 at Duke: Final Score - Army 35, Duke 21

Dammit. I used italics in the preview to tell you how much I really wanted to pick this game, and as it turned out I should have. If for no other reason than to break out my “there's nothing quite so enjoyable as a dog winning outright” line! If Duke is favored in another game this season, I'll be shocked... and I'll be betting every dime I have on their opponent!

So 1-1 on my “passes”. What does that portend for my actual picks? I have no clue. But let's find out...

First...

Air Force -13.5 at Wyoming: Final Score: Air Force 20, Wyoming 14

Woops.

Air Force didn't get me a half-cover! Looks like I picked the wrong service academy to pick this week.

It took a furious fourth quarter comeback and a big defensive stop for the Falcons to come out of this one with a win, much less cover.

Maybe we stay away from double-digit favorites on the road from here on out? At least in non-BCS conferences, anyway.

0-1 but plenty of time to get the ship righted!

Next...

Texas -16 vs. UCLA: Final Score - UCLA 34, Texas 12

Say what?!

How the heck did this happen?!

Somehow, Rick Neuheisel conjured up a rough and tumble running game and a stout, ball-hawking defense. We hadn't seen any signs of either in the Bruins first three games, but it was on display in a big way on Saturday.

The Longhorns got out to an early 3-0 lead, but UCLA scored 13 in the second quarter, seized the momentum and never let it go. Four first-half turnovers put Texas in a hole, and even though they were the home team, they couldn't get things turned around.

Granted, this was horrible for my picks, but part of me enjoyed seeing Texas get popped in the mouth here. It proves they're vulnerable, and that makes my trip to Lincoln to see them take on the Huskers that much more exciting!

0-2 and praying for my Flier Pick streak to continue...

Thirdly...

Cincinnati +14 vs. Oklahoma: Final Score - Oklahoma 31, Cincinnati 29
*- This game was this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

Yes! Three FP's in a row!

And it couldn't come at a better time after that 0-2 start!

Here's what I said in last week's preview:

All the usual metrics point towards an Oklahoma win here, and I won't be the lest bit surprised if they do. But I have me a hunch that the final will be closer than the 14-point spread would indicate.

The Sooners got out to an early lead, but the Bearcats stormed back in the fourth quarter to make a game of it, and easily get me my cover.

Sometimes I swing and miss in a big way (see: Texas/UCLA), but every now than then I break one down exactly right, and it makes all the misses worthwhile!

Mostly...

1-2 and still in the hunt for a .500 week!

Finally...

Oregon -11.5 at Arizona State: Final Score - Oregon 42, ASU 31

Son of a....

Let me take you back to Week 2 when I wrote...

Thank you magic half-point!!! (I know you'll come back to bite me later this season.)

Here you go then.

The Ducks flat-dominated the Sun Devils in this game, but threw up a doughnut in the fourth quarter to cost me a cover by a half-point.

You're seriously telling me they couldn't kick a lousy field goal in there somewhere?! Come on Oregon!

On the plus-side, I can now go back to hating their awful Nike-imposed uniforms. So there's that.

So I finish the week 1-3 (.250) which makes me 7-8 (.467) for the season. One bad week and I'm right back in the neighborhood of my horrible .458 mark from last year. Not good.

I'm trying to stay positive though. It's still early enough that one good week could get me right back above the magic .550 mark!

Or at least that's what I'm telling myself.

Speaking of that good week, let's hope it comes in...

Week 5

First up, the games I looked at, but didn't pick...

Saturday 10/2 Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Texas (at Dallas, 2:30pm, ABC/ESPN): I was very tempted by this game, but I know better than to over-rate one game.

Texas got embarrassed by UCLA at home last week, so it's very tempting to see that small spread and think, “Oklahoma's going to crush here. -3.5 is a gift!”

Ah, but that's what the odds-makers want you to think! The Red River Shootout is usually just that, a shootout. And often it's decided by less than 3 points. I'm staying away, thank you.

Saturday 10/2 Northwestern -5.5 vs. Minnesota (11:00am, ESPN2): Again, a team coming off an embarrassing loss. Again, I'm not going to fall into a trap here.

Northwestern's shown some toughness. Minnesota's shown none. If this game was in Evanston, I'd be all over it. But a road game in the Big Ten is still a road game in the Big Ten.

I fully expect the Wildcats to get the win here, but 5.5 makes me nervous. I'll pass.

Saturday 10/2 Boston College +2.5 vs. Notre Dame (7pm, ESPN): If we had a decent amount of information on BC, this might be a juicy bet on an underdog. Unfortunately, they haven't played anybody.

Yes, the Irish are 1-3 and coming off a thumping at the hands of Stanford. But at least they've played somebody. BC is 2-1 with wins over Weber St. and Kent St. and a 19-0 loss to Virginia Tech.

I haven't seen any of the Eagles games, so I there's no way I can form a reasonable opinion. I have to pass.

But enough of the games that teased me, but failed to seduce me. Which games am I actually picking? I'm glad you asked.

As always, were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager... these are the games I'd be betting on:

First...

Saturday 10/2 Michigan State +2 vs. Wisconsin (2:30pm, ABC/ESPN): The Spartans are 4-0 (0-0 in the Big Ten). The Badgers are 4-0 (0-0 in the Big Ten).

I know, I know, I know. Trust me, it kills me to do this.

But think about it. Even with last week's lopsided win, it's difficult to suggest that the Badgers have been a solid team so far this season. They've shown flashes. But they've also shown a lack of discipline that made a San Jose State win closer than it should've been, and nearly got them beat by Arizona State.

Michigan State isn't the best team in the league by far. If it wasn't for a brilliant, ballsy fake field goal call in overtime, they could easily be 3-1 with wins over nobodies and a loss to Notre Dame.

But that call happened. Not only did it happen, but head coach Mark Dantonio suffered a heart attack after it happened.

So let's see. Team wins dramatic game over nationally prominent program, and then their leader has a medical meltdown. Obviously I don't wish a heart attack on anyone, but if you were looking to rally a program and bond a team tightly together, this is about the script you'd write, no?

Oh, and did I mention that Dantonio is going to be back this week coaching from the press box? Think that might get the East Lansing faithful fired up a notch or two?

Undisciplined teams struggle to win on the road. Put them up against a team that has every element you'd want for a Hollywood movie, and I've got the Spartans winning outright. I pray I'm wrong, but I don't like the looks of this one, not one bit.

I'll reluctantly take Sparty and the points, and be as happy as I've ever been to miss on a pick if I get it wrong.

Next...

Saturday 10/2 Maryland -5.5 vs. Duke (5pm, Find a good bar): The Terrapins are 3-1 (0-0 in the ACC). The Blue Devils are 1-3 (0-1 in the ACC).

New strategy: bet against Duke. Doesn't matter who they play. Doesn't matter what the spread is. Just bet against Duke.

You want to know how I arrived at this pick? I'll spell it out in mathematical terms:

Army > Duke; Navy > Army; Maryland > Navy;

Ergo, Maryland >>> Duke.

Simple enough?

It's a home game for the Terps. Duke sucks the bag. I only have to give 5.5?

Sign me up!

I'm taking Maryland and rolling on to the next pick.

Thirdly...

Saturday 10/2 Alabama -8.5 vs. Florida (7pm, CBS): The Crimson Tide are 4-1 (1-0 in the SEC). The Gators are 4-0 (2-0 in the SEC).

8.5 points is a lot to give in a rematch of last year's SEC Championship Game. But these aren't the same teams from that game.

Alabama has many of it's starters back, but lost some key cogs (Terrance Cody, Javier Arenas) to the draft.

Florida lost the most key of key cogs, Tim Tebow.

Advantage? Alabama.

And you know what? I just went back and looked, and 'Bama won 32-13 in that SEC Title Game... on a neutral field.

This game's in Tuscaloosa.

Screw it. 8.5 points is nothing!

I'll gladly give Florida and it's struggling offense that head start and watch while the Tide roll once again!

Finally...

Saturday 10/2 Washington +10 at USC (7pm, ABC/ESPN): The Huskies are 1-2 (0-0 in the Pac 10). The Trojans are 4-0 (1-0 in the Big Ten).
*- This game is this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

Once again, I'm going with a serious underdog for the Flier Pick. Can I make it four in a row? We'll find out.

Unlike last week, however, I'm going with a road team here - always dangerous.

But I have history on my side. Washington beat USC last season as heavy underdogs, and both sides will remember that.

The difference is, Pete Carroll isn't coaching these Trojans; and after what I saw versus the Gophers, the clown who is has the capability of screwing up this game all on his own.

Huskies QB Jake Locker was a pre-season Heisman candidate and often mentioned as a potential #1 overall pick in next April's NFL draft. Unfortunately, he hasn't come close to living up to that billing... yet.

This might be a nice game for a guy like that to break out, don't you think?

Yeah, so do I.

USC probably wins, but I think this one's going to be close.

Somebody's getting 10 points in a game like that? I'll take Washington and root for the egg to land squarely on Lane Kiffin's face.

If not? Well, that's why I created the Flier Pick boys and girls!

So there you have them. Four picks for you to consider, contemplate and criticize. What do you think? Leave a comment below and let us all know.

That's going to wrap things up for today. I'm back on Friday (hopefully - it's the last home series of the regular season for the Twins you know!).

Until then (or whenever I'm back), thanks for reading!

9-27-10: Monday Notes

2010-09-27T10:08:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Welcome to another work week. I hope your weekend was a good one, and that those of you here in the upper Midwest got a chance to enjoy some of the perfect Fall weather we had on Sunday!

Me? I stayed pretty sedentary, minus a trip to the Xcel Energy Center for a Wild preseason game on Saturday night. Other than that, there was copious amounts of sleep and couch time whilst I tried to kick “Cold Virus 2.0”.

You'll recall that I told you I usually catch a sniffle when the seasons turn from Summer to Fall and Winter to Spring. So I was surprised when I got a cold a few weeks ago while it was still fairly Summer-ish out there. This cold, while far less virulent (insert Dan knocking furiously on wood here), is still fairly annoying, so forgive me my weekend sloth.

There was plenty of eventful sports news to talk about from the weekend, and as is usually the case when that happens... it's Notes time!

Right after the quote...

“Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much.”
- Oscar Wilde (1854 - 1900), Irish writer, poet and prominent aesthete

Jeff in Des Moines couldn't believe I was willing to give up my (whom I hate) tag in reference to the Red Sox. There's a method to my madness, Jeff!

Monday Notes...

I knew the weekend series in Detroit was going to be tough for the Twins... but getting swept was not what I had in mind!

Even though the Tigers have a very pedestrian overall record, they've now finished the season 52-29 in the friendly confines of Comerica Park. Talk about your home field advantages!

Combine that with Liriano getting sick, Pavano not performing well with a big early lead, and Duensing getting very little run support from an injury-depleted line-up and you'll understand why I'm disappointed, but not overly concerned.

Joe Mauer was out all weekend with his sore knee. Jim Thome is having some back issues again. And several other regulars are battling various bumps and bruises. So long as those things can get sorted out in time for the club's four-game finale against Toronto at home, I'm not going to panic. Yes, the playoffs are right around the corner, but the club we saw in Detroit isn't going to be the one we see in the ALDS.

The Rays now lead the Yankees by half a game for the East title; and they lead the Twins by one game for the best record in the AL. As things stand, the Twins would be hosting the Yankees in the first round.

Oh boy!

The Vikings got a much needed win yesterday... but it was one of the sloppier 24-10 wins you'll ever see.

Penalties (12 for 100 yards) and turnovers (3, 2 interceptions and 1 fumble) still plagued Minnesota, and what's worse, there doesn't seem to be much change/improvement in those areas over the first three weeks.

Yes, they got a win, but it's tough to feel great about it when the performance was so lackluster, and when it came against a team that, despite certain improvements, still isn't a threat to get to the postseason.

The majority of the Vikings' troubles come down to the passing game. It's clear that Favre isn't in sync with the receivers he's got on the field. Yes, Sidney Rice's absence is key, but that isn't the entirety of the problem. Minnesota can bring in all the Greg Camarillos and Hank Baskets they want, until they find someone who's A) a legitimate deep threat and B) is able to get on the same page with Favre, the throwing game will continue to struggle.

Thank heavens, however, for Adrian Peterson. Maybe it was the criticism for his fumbling troubles last season. Maybe it was catching flak for missing a mini-camp. Whatever it was, something has motivated AP to revert to his early-career form and help carry the struggling Vikings offense so far.

Minnesota had 185 yards rushing against the Lions yesterday, Peterson had 160 of them, 80 of which came on a brilliantly executed trap play in the third quarter where Adrian was able to cut to the outside and take it to the house.

The Vikings have a bye this week, giving them two weeks to prep for their trip to New York to take on the Jets.

The silly holding penalties have to stop. The communication issues between Favre and the wide outs have to be resolved. The remaining health issues (especially now at center) have to work themselves out.

If those things are improved, the Vikings still have the talent to be a top-tier NFL team. If not... well, I'll let my dear readers who root for the green and gold fill in that particular blank!

The Badgers beat Austin Peay 70-3... and for those of you who were texting me accusing Wisconsin of running up the score... relax.

I'll have more to say about this game on Friday in the DFTU, but I wanted to quickly address this issue.

I know the score looks gaudy, and I'm certainly not going to be bragging about dropping 70 on a club that was clearly over-matched. This was Austin Peay's first game against an FBS club, and they have a long way to go before they become one of those FCS teams that's a threat to score an upset.

But the Badgers didn't “run up the score”. I know that may be hard to believe in a 70-3 game, but if you look a little closer at the play calling, you'll see what I mean.

By the start of the second half, the Badgers were playing second- and third-stringers. By the fourth quarter, they were playing third- and fourth-stringers.

In the second half, the Badgers threw the ball exactly seven times. Only one of those came in the fourth quarter.

Short of bringing kids out of the stands to play, or taking knees for the entire fourth quarter, I don't know what else Wisconsin could've done? If they're running the ball with third and fourth level guys out there, and Austin Peay still can't stop them from scoring, that's not the Badgers' fault.

You can't ask the third- and fourth-string kids not to play hard. For some of them, this will be the only time they see the field this season. To put them out there and tell them not to go all out is simply unfair.

Look, I don't feel great about 70-3. It doesn't prove much to whack a team that is that uncompetitive. But let's not forget, Austin Peay made their entire athletic department's budget by taking that whipping. So let's not feel too bad for them, okay?

And get off Bucky's back already. If Gopher fans are going to use the South Dakota loss to push for a new coach, then Wisconsin fans can use the Austin Peay win to say they're two wins short of bowl eligibility.

I went to the Wild game Saturday night... and at least they didn't lose in regulation!

Okay, admittedly, that's setting the bar pretty low for a hockey team that many hoped would at least make a run at a playoff spot this season.

But after the Wild got whacked in their first two preseason contests against the St. Louis Blues (home and away), it was encouraging to see them play with some fire and competitiveness against a club that was in the Stanley Cup Finals last season.

There are still plenty of issues yet to be addressed. The Wild are still experimenting with the other wing on the Koivu-Brunette line. Anti Miettinen was the guy last season, but Chuck Kobasew looked good on that line last night.

My guess is that the Wild would like to start Casey Wellman in the minors to make sure he gets the kind of playing time he needs to develop, but if he keeps playing with the speed and energy he did last night, it's going to be awfully difficult to keep him off the big club.

Eden Prarie native Chad Rau has virtually no shot to make the club out of camp, but don't be surprised if he makes an appearance later in the year if there are some injuries. The four-year Colorado College center made several noticeable effort plays last night and earned a cheer from the fans late in the game for grinding along the boards, keeping a puck in the offensive zone and allowing his club to change behind him.

Obviously, the back-up goaltender spot is of the most concern right now for the Wild. Josh Harding tore his ACL and MCL in the Wild's second preseason game and will be out for most, if not all of this season. That puts a ton of pressure on Niklas Backstrom to stay healthy - something he's been unable to accomplish the last two seasons. Anton Khudobin is the leading internal candidate to replace Harding as the primary backup, but neither GM Chuck Fletcher nor head coach Todd Richards would rule out looking outside the organization for some help.

One last note, I took my first shot at writing a game story for the work website. You can check that out here. It's a fairly rough draft. It's the preseason for me too!

That's going to wrap things up for today. I'm back on Wednesday with a look back and ahead in the world of college football prognostication!

Until then, thanks for reading!

9-24-10: DFTU

2010-09-24T10:06:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

We've done it again! Another week in the books and another weekend looms before us... presuming those of us in the upper Midwest own an ark.

Yeah, there's been a little bit of rain the past couple of days, but never let it be said that a little moisture deterred a column, right?!

Nope. There's a long list of stuff that has deterred them, but rain isn't on it!

Since it's a Friday, I'll keep the pre-column rambling to a minimum, okay?

After all, what you've really come here for is to get Updated, right?

And Updated you shall be...

Right after the quote!

“The public will believe anything, so long as it is not founded on the truth.”
- Edith Sitwell (1887 - 1964), British poet and critic

Not that I feel the need to embellish on occasion just to be believed. Nope, no, not at all...

It's Friday, and that means it's time... once again... for everybody's favorite segment...

Dan's Favorite Teams Update

Minnesota Twins: The Twins are 92-60, your 2010 AL Central Division Champions, and one-half game ahead of the New York Yankees in the race for best record in the American League.

Yep, you could say it's been a pretty good week for the Twins.

They swept Cleveland earlier this week , finishing their latest homestand with a 4-2 record. Combined with the continued death-march of the White Sox, that led to clinching the Central title on Tuesday night.

I mentioned it briefly in Wednesday's column, but I wanted to flesh it out a little. I had the chance to head down to the ballpark Tuesday night knowing that the Twins would have the chance to clinch. It wasn't going well early, with Cleveland jumping out to an early lead.

But as has happened so many times this season, the Twins battled their way back, taking a lead in the eighth inning while they watched the Oakland A's (who'd just taken two of three in their visit to Target Field) jump out to a 5-1 lead over Chicago.

As Matt Capps closed out another win for Minnesota, all that was left was to sit and wait out the A's/White Sox result. The Twins let the media down into the clubhouse so we could get interviews and quotes for game stories, then shooed us out so they could set the clubhouse up for a division title celebration.

Fortunately for yours truly, I was able to get enough sound that talked about what seemed now to be an inevitable clinch, that I didn't technically need to go back down to the clubhouse for the celebration.

But Dan, you say! Why would you pass up that kind of opportunity?! Most fans would love to be in the middle of that!

That's an excellent point. And had I been appropriately attired, I probably would've given it a go. But seeing as how I was still dressed for a fairly important work meeting I had early in the day, I didn't really fancy getting some half-decent clothes drenched in champagne and beer.

Think I'm overstating things a bit? Take a look at this video:

Okay, so it's not the greatest camera work in the world, but you get the general idea.

So I passed on the celebratory drenching in favor of getting home and getting some rest for another day.

None the less, it was a ton of fun to be there and watch the two games play out. One of the things that struck me was that even though the guys cut loose and celebrated, you still got a very strong feeling that this was only the first of several celebrations they hope to have.

Given the increase in payroll, given the success in the regular season, I don't think simply winning another division title is good enough for this group. And that's a wonderful thing for fans to hear.

I've heard some folks say that winning a first-round series and getting to the ALCS would make this a successful season. Maybe that's the case. I guess we won't really know until the whole thing's done and we can get a little perspective on things. But the way it feels right now, a World Series berth is entirely within the realm of the possible, and when you start thinking like that, anything less will seem like something of a let down.

Ten more games remain. Three in Detroit. Three in Kansas City. And they finish out the season with four at home versus Toronto.

Detroit has a great home record, those won't be easy. Kansas City? Well they're the Royals, so those are three winnable games. Toronto is tough, but the Twins get them at home. If the Twins can win seven of those ten games, they'll put a ton of pressure on the Yankees, who'd have to win seven of their last nine just to tie the Twins. The Bombers opponents for those games? Three vs. Boston (whom I hate). Three in Toronto. And three more in Boston (whom I hate).

Yes, Red Sox (whom I hate) fans, this is your moment. You'll never have a better chance to convince me to root for your club than you have over this last week and a half.

If Boston (whom I hate) manages to win four or more of those six games, I promise you'll see the end of “(whom I hate)” in this column.

Yes, it's not an easy decision for me to come to, but home field advantage is just that important.

As I mentioned, the Twins start the home stretch this weekend in Detroit. Here are the match-ups:

Friday: Francisco Liriano (14-8, 3.44) vs. Justin Verlander (17-8, 3.46)

Saturday: Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.68) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (8-9, 4.92)

Sunday: Brian Duensing (10-2, 2.19) vs. Rick Porcello (9-11, 5.22)

None of those are going to be easy wins, but there's a lot still to play for, so hopefully the Twins are up to the challenge!

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks are 62-91, in last place in the NL West and 24 games behind the San Francisco Giants.

While the NL West race is the only compelling one left in baseball, the Diamondbacks can only play spoiler for the Giants, whom they play in a three game set sandwiched in between two series with the Dodgers, who aren't any more in the race than Arizona is.

But that doesn't mean there isn't news to report in the Valley of the Sun.

The Diamondbacks have hired Kevin Towers as their new General Manager. Towers was last a GM in San Diego where over 14 years he put together squads that won four division titles and reached the World Series in 1998.

He's known as an astute judge of talent and certainly has the chops to reshape the roster back into a contender quickly. And he'd better be quick about it, since his new contract is only for two years. I have a feeling that'll be extended sometime next season after he and the ownership group have had a chance to adjust to each other.

I said last week that I had no real problem with the job that interim GM Jerry DiPoto had done, but ultimately when you have a chance to get a guy with Towers' track record, you have to do it. DiPoto was understandably disappointed and chose to seek another opportunity rather than stay with the club. That's unfortunate, but also understandable.

The first thing on Towers' plate is hiring a full-time manager. I also said last week that I had no problem with the job that Kirk Gibson has done in his interim role. Towers will spend the rest of this regular season, talking with players and the rest of the coaching staff to see if Gibson's the best guy to help turn this thing around, or if he needs to look outside the organization for a new voice.

It's going to be an interesting off-season Arizona fans. Don't sleep on this club. There's a lot of talent here and with the right additions, they can be back in the mix even next season.

I know it's hard to believe that after watching this club in 2010, but if San Diego can do what they did going from worst to a tie for first, then there isn't any reason to think it's not possible for the Snakes!

This weekend's series against the Dodgers shapes up thusly:

Friday: Barry Enright (6-5, 3.87) vs. John Ely (4-8, 5.00)

Saturday: Daniel Hudson (6-1, 1.65) vs. Clayton Kershaw (12-10, 2.98)

Sunday: Jon Saunders (3-6, 4.46) vs. Chad Billingsley (11-11, 3.70)

Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers are 3-0 (0-0) and tied for first place in the Big Ten.

I'm entirely confused by this club.

Yes, they're 3-0, and that's nothing to sneeze at. But it seems like their performances have gotten consistently poorer as the weeks go by.

You could try and argue that the drop-off has been a result of increasingly talented competition, but I don't think it's that simple.

First of all, I have a tough time rating San Jose State as “tougher competition” than UNLV was. And secondly, their last two games have been at home, where they're supposed to play better than they do on the road.

The offensive mistakes are still there. The defense goes to sleep on occasion. And don't get me started on the flubs by the special teams.

It was plain and simply the grace of the football gods that allowed Bucky to squeak by Arizona State this past Saturday. The Sun Devils had a ton of opportunities to pull ahead and win that game, and yet the managed to screw up each of them.

So yes, as a Badger fan, I'll take the win. And yes, they should roll over FCS opponent Austin Peay this week. But as you start to look forward to the Big Ten schedule, things get tough in a hurry.

They start at Michigan State which showed they have a ton of guts in their win over Notre Dame last weekend. Then it's home against Minnesota (7 in a row, 13 out of 15, 'nuff said).

Then home to Ohio State and on the road to Iowa. If they can get even one of those games it'll be damned near a miracle.

That's a brutal four week stretch in this league. Even with the Gophers involved, going 2-2 is going to be tough. And since confidence and momentum are such integral parts of college football, how they get through that stretch is going to go a long way towards defining their season.

Whatever they're going to do in those four games, they're going to have to do it without last seasons Big Ten Freshman of the Year, linebacker Chris Borland. Borland missed the end of last season with a shoulder injury, and after extensive rehab has managed to re-injure it not once, but twice over the first three weeks.

The only plausible option left was surgery and missing the rest of the season with a medical redshirt. The Badgers finally have some depth at the linebacker position, so it's not as big a blow as it could've been, but Borland is a serious talent, and his presence on defense will be missed.

For this week, the key is not to come out flat against an inferior opponent. There's a reason these games are called “body bag” games. The Governors are coming to Madison to earn a check which will help sustain their program for the season. In return, the Badgers are supposed to get an easy win.

But as teams like Minnesota, Virginia Tech and Ole Miss have found out to their detriment already this season, if you come out flat and allow an FCS opponent to grab a lead, things can get really ugly, really quick.

Kickoff is at 11am central time on the Big Ten Network (check your local listings).

That's going to put a bow on things for this week. Remember, we're only a few weeks away from the return of the Minnesota Wild to the DFTU!

(And for the sake of us all, let's hope that they're better than what they showed in Wednesday night's 5-1 loss to St. Louis! Oof.)

I'll be back on Monday with more nonsensical ramblings.

Until then, thanks for reading!

9-22-10: 2010 College Football Picks, Week 4

2010-09-22T19:48:00.002-05:00

Hello again everybody...

First off, apologies for getting this up so late.

As fate would have it, I ended up at Target Field last night as the Twins clinched their 6th division championship in the last nine years, and the festivities ran a little late. On the plus side, I got to see the press box and the clubhouse for the first time, and as with everything else at Target Field, the Twins did things absolutely right.

It was a great experience and I can't wait to do more of it next season.

But don't think I forgot about you, my dear readers. No, no, no.

Instead of scrapping the column all together, I'm writing a special Wednesday night edition for you!

And this time of year, Wednesdays mean college football predictions here at Writing for the Cycle! So let's get to the pickin'...

Right after the quote!

“Critics search for ages for the wrong word, which, to give them credit, they eventually find.”
- Peter Ustinov (1921 - 2004), English actor, writer and dramatist

Personally, I search ages for my college football picks... (insert punchline here).

2010 College Football Picks: Week 4

Starting us off this week, as every week, a look at last week's picks. We begin with those I looked at, but passed on:

East Carolina +17.5 at Virginia Tech: Final Score - Virginia Tech 49, ECU 27

Temptation, oh how I'm glad I resisted thee. Had this game not been in Blacksburg, I might have gone for it. But since it was a home game for the Hokies, and they quite literally HAD to win and win convincingly, I passed. Right call.

Tennessee +16.5 vs. Florida: Final Score - Florida 31, Tennessee 17

Shoot. Should've gone with this one apparently. The result looks a lot worse than it was, trust me. The Vols had the Gators plenty concerned in this game. I don't want to bandwagon a coach after just three games, but Derek Dooley has all the earmarks of a quality head coach, and the sooner he can return Tennessee to national prominence, the better in my opinion.

Arizona State +15.5 at Wisconsin: Final Score - Wisconsin 20, ASU 19

I knew it was too much, I knew it was too much, I knew it was too much... dammit! Sadly, I couldn't pull the trigger against my favorite club two times in the first three weeks. It just wouldn't have been fair. Also unfair was the wager I lost against my ASU-grad co-worker, where he talked me into giving him half the points (we settled on ASU +7.5). The only solace I have is that he had to be sick when he saw how many chances his Sun Devils had to win that game outright... not that it's much solace, really, but I'll take what I can get.

So two of my “passes” hit, that can't bode well for my real picks can it?! Let's find out...

First...

California -3.5 at Nevada: Final Score - Nevada 52, Cal 31

Crap. Not the way I'd have chosen to start a week.

A colleague of mine informed me that he's always heard that you should never take a short-favorite on the road. In other words, if the spread's less than say, six, either take the home dog or stay away. Mind you, he told me this on Saturday after my column had been printed and his theory was of little to no use to me. Thanks ever so much, Chris.

As it turned out, he was right in this instance. Nevada kept up it's streak of improving offense and Cal didn't have any answer for them.

Personally, I'm going to lay the blame as fully on Michele Tafoya (proud Cal grad) as I can. This is what I get for supporting a co-worker I guess!

0-1 and suddenly thinking that 2-2 would be just ducky.

Next...

Alabama -23.5 at Duke: Final Score - Alabama 62, Duke 13

That's better!

Really, this should've been one of those 30+ point spreads that I keep telling you to stay away from. But I'm sure glad it wasn't!

Didn't see a second of this game, so I can't really break it down. Sometimes, though, the score pretty much tells you the story.

RB Mark Ingram came back, scored a couple of times, and the Tide rolled. Lather, rinse, repeat.

1-1 and feeling a little better...

Thirdly...

USC -14 at Minnesota: Final Score - USC 32, Minnesota 21

There's a reason I don't *actually* bet on sports, and this game is it.

USC pulled away early in the second half and was cruising towards an easy cover when they but in the B-squad and allowed Minnesota a late touchdown drive to cover.

Head Gopher Brain Wizard Tim Brewster even called a time out late in the drive to give his club the chance to score a touchdown that was completely meaningless to his team or his fans, but screwed the hell out of the folks that picked USC minus the points in this game.

Thanks a ton Tim. Here I've been the lone voice in this area NOT calling for your head on a platter - albeit for selfish reasons - and this is what you do to me?

That's neither tremendous, or exciting, ya doosh!

1-2 and praying Chris was wrong about short-favorites on the road!

Finally...

Texas -3 at Texas Tech: Final Score - Texas 24, Texas Tech 14
*- This game was this weeks WftC Flier Pick of the week

Thank you, Longhorns!

Two Flier Picks in a row? Be still my beating heart!

Actually, maybe that's not the greatest sign in the world, since it means that I've needed those Flier Picks in successive weeks to save me from a losing record!

I was all psyched to catch part of this game, but due to the vagaries of ABC/ESPN's scheduling system, somehow I got ESPN News in HD on ESPN2 instead of this game. Don't ask me how it happened. I've got no clue. And I'm not going to complain to loudly either, since I'm pretty sure ESPN could “disappear” me, just like in the Sopranos!

Whatever the Longhorns did, it was enough to cover, and that's all I can ask... especially from a Flier team!

So after three weeks worth of picks, and a second consecutive 2-2 week, my record stands at 6-5 (.545). As I recall, you need to have a .550 winning percentage to actually make money (Google “vig” if you want to see the reasoning why), so I've fallen below that threshold.

However, since Goal #1 this season was to better my awful .458 mark from last season, I'm still feeling pretty good about things. In fact, were I to go 2-2 from here on out, I'd be guaranteed a better season, right?!

Not that I'll let that deter me from chasing that elusive 4-0 week mind you!

Speaking of which, it's time to get on with...

Week 4

First up, the games I looked at, but didn't pick...

Saturday 9/24 - Penn State -14 vs. Temple (2:30pm, BTN): I remember distinctly picking this game last year in Penn State's favor and didn't cover. So even though the spread is lower this season and the Lions are at home, I'm still going to take a pass.

Saturday 9/24 - Army +6.5 at Duke (2pm, No TV): I really wanted to pick this one. I mean I really wanted to pick it. I'm a fan of the service academies. I'm not a fan of Duke's football program. 6.5 is a juicy spread. What's not to like right? Well, after Duke got rolled by Alabama, and yet still are favored this week? Something's going on there. And whatever it is, I don't trust it. I'll pass.

So of those two games couldn't whet my appetite, what games did I pick? Good question...

As always, were I to have the wherewithal to make a worthwhile wager... these are the games I'd be betting on:

First...

Saturday 9/24 - Air Force -13.5 at Wyoming (2pm, MWN):The Falcons are 2-1 (1-0 in the Mountain West). The Cowboys are 1-2 (0-0 in the Mountain West).

Even though Air Force is the service academy least-steeped in tradition, they do generally have a very competitive football program, and this year looks to be no different.

They worked over what was supposed to be a pretty good BYU team, 35-14. And they hung right in there with Oklahoma, losing 27-24.

Wyoming on the other hand, is one of the clubs that keeps the Mountain West from being considered a major conference. They're coming off of two straight whippings at the hands of top tier programs Texas and Boise State.

13.5 is a lot to give on the road, but Air Force can score in bunches and Wyoming simply can't. I'll give the points and roll with the Falcons!

Next...

Saturday 9/24 - Texas -16 vs. UCLA (2:30pm, ABC): The Longhorns are 3-0 (1-0 in the Big 12). The Bruins are 1-2 (0-1 in the Pac 10).

Lots of double-digit spreads this week. That's either a good thing, or a really bad thing. I'll decide next week when I run down the results!

Texas isn't the juggernaut they've been in recent years, but they're still pretty good. And they're certainly light-years better than the moribund UCLA program.

Rick Neuheisel is doing what he can to resuscitate the Bruins, but so far, they're still struggling, especially on offense, which is supposed to be his strength.

UCLA finally got a win last week as they rolled over Houston, but Texas' defense is just a touch better than their in-state brethren.

The Longhorns are at home, I'll go ahead and lay the 16 and see if UCLA doesn't just get hooked!

Thirdly...

Saturday 9/24 - Cincinnati +14 vs. Oklahoma (5pm, ESPN2): The Bearcats are 1-2 (0-0 in the Big East). The Sooners are 3-0 (0-0 in the Big 12).
*- This game is this week's WftC Flier Pick of the Week

This game is what the Flier Pick is all about.

All the usual metrics point towards an Oklahoma win here, and I won't be the lest bit surprised if they do. But I have me a hunch that the final will be closer than the 14-point spread would indicate.

Oklahoma's good, but not as good as they have been. They got severely tested by Air Force, and haven't limited an opponent to less than 17 points.

Cincinnati also isn't as good as they have been, but can still score points in bunches. Throw in the fact that they have this game at home, and I think they've got a chance to hang in it.

I'm out on a limb here, but that's what the Flier Pick is all about! Go Bearcats!

Finally...

Saturday 9/24 - Oregon -11.5 at Arizona State (9:30pm, FSN): The Ducks are 3-0 (0-0 in the Pac 10). The Sun Devils are 2-1 (0-0 in the Pac 10).

So the Sun Devils took my beloved Badgers to the brink last Saturday, and of course I'm picking against them this week, right?!

Well it's not *quite* that simple.

The beauty of watching the Sun Devils nearly beat my club is that I was able to see how many flaws they have. Arizona State had plenty of chances to beat Wisconsin last Saturday, but managed to shoot themselves in the foot often enough to prevent the win.

A lack of discipline will cost you on the road against a team like Wisconsin. It'll really cost you when you take on a scoring machine like Oregon, even if you're at home.

Oregon's lowest scoring total of the season? 48 points... on the road... at Tennessee.

Um, yeah. I'll gladly lay the 11.5 and watch the Ducks quack their way past the Devils.

So there you have them folks. Four picks to peruse, ponder and critique! As always, I encourage you to leave your thoughts, or a pick that you think I should've made, but didn't!

That's going to wrap things up for today. Thanks again for your patience.

I'll be back on Friday with an AL Central Championship version of the DFTU.

Until then, thanks for reading!

9-20-10: 2010 Peek at the Picks, Vol. 4

2010-09-20T10:07:00.003-05:00

Hello again everybody...

Welcome back. I hope your weekend was as restful and relaxing as mine was.

Fortunately/unfortunately (depending on how you want to look at it), I was in attendance for the only win of the Twins three-game set against the A's. It was a brilliant fall Saturday and a great time was had by all.

The news wasn't all great this weekend, however. We here at Writing for the Cycle would like to pass along our best wishes to a couple of sports figures who've had better weekends.

First of all, Michigan State football coach Mark Dantonio, who just Saturday night directed his club to a dramatic overtime win over Notre Dame, had a heart attack after the game which required surgery. As you can see in the article, the heart attack was described as “mild” (if there is such a thing as a “mild” heart attack), the surgery was successful and he's expected to make a full recovery. All the best to coach Dantonio and his family.

Secondly, Chicago Cubs outfielder Tyler Colvin was pierced in the chest by a shard from a broken bat. Colvin has also been stabilized and is expected to recover soon. Maybe this will be the incident that finally motivates Major League Baseball to do something about their broken bat issue. I hesitate to call it a “maple bat” issue, because I think it goes a little deeper than that. I've heard some experts say that the emphasis needs to be on the quality of the wood being used, not the type.

Whatever it is, some of you may recall a little over two years ago when I wrote this column in which I talked about umpire Brian O'Nora getting gashed on the neck by a shard from a broken bat. At the time I was all for a methodical study of the issue with reasonable guidelines as a result. But, like many, I'd since forgotten about that study. Either it's taking entirely too long, or it wasn't done correctly. Either way, this is a problem baseball needs to address now. We've had a guy nearly collapse a lung due to a bat shard. If that's not enough to bring about some change, then I fear for the player who's going to have to be killed before this gets fixed.

Get better soon, Tyler.

So ends the depressing part of a Monday column... I hope. Today we're taking a penultimate look at my pre-season baseball picks. The final look will be coming in a couple of weeks after the regular season has ended. The playoff teams have all but been decided in the American League. The National League is another matter entirely.

We'll check out how I'm doing...

Right after the quote.

“Everyone is born with genius, but most people only keep it a few minutes.”
- Edgard Varese (1883 - 1965), French-born composer

I'd like to think I kept mine for far longer than that! Now, if I can just remember where I put it...

2010 Peek at the Picks, Vol. 4

It's been entirely too long since we've revisited my pre-season MLB Picks. So let's take a look, shall we?

As always, before each baseball season, I pick the final standings for each of the six divisions. Periodically throughout the year, I compare the current MLB standings to my picks. I've even sought the help of one of my mathematically-inclined friends to create the Kelley Formula to measure how well I'm doing.

Off we go then...

AL East:

Current Standings: New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays -0.5, Boston Red Sox (whom I hate) -7, Toronto Blue Jays -15, Baltimore Orioles -31

Dan's Picks: New York, Boston (whom I hate), Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Toronto

Kelley Formula Results: 16 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: Those pesky Rays just won't settle into the Wild Card spot and allow me my pick of the Yanks as division winners!

This will be an interesting race to watch down the stretch since both clubs are virtual locks for the post-season. The only question is which one gets to start at home.

How important is that for the two clubs? Well, the Wild Card will likely play Minnesota and the division winner will likely host Texas. New York has pretty much owned Minnesota over the last few years, so if their “worst case scenario” is to travel to Minnesota to start the playoffs, it can't scare them all that much, can it?

Tampa has a 43-30 record on the road this year, so traveling can't scare them that much either I suppose. And they won the season series versus the Twins this year.

So maybe, in a way, this will be an intriguing race for the simple fact that neither club is going to feel a tremendous amount of pressure to win the division.

Oh, and did I mention they play each other four more times before the season ends?

Boston (whom I hate) is pretty much a lock for third. And as much as I'd like to see the “Flying Showalters” (I didn't come up with the nickname, but I love it) put together a hot enough streak to catch Toronto and earn me a couple more points, it's not going to happen.

AL Central:

Current Standings: Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox (-10), Detroit Tigers (-14), Cleveland Indians -27, Kansas City Royals -27.5

Dan's Picks: Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland

Kelley Formula Results: 18 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: This is the only division I have a shot at being perfect in, and Kansas City is doing their very best to muck it up for me.

Obviously I should've known better than to trust a team that thought spending big money on Gil Meche and hiring manager Ned Yost were the answers to their problems.

Minnesota's got a death-grip on this division, which certainly is a sea change from my last Peek at the Picks column.

I know they significantly increased their payroll this season, but I honestly didn't see them salting this thing away this early. In fact, when it became clear that Justin Morneau's battle with post-concussion syndrome was going to keep him out for the bulk of the year, I really thought the Twins could be in trouble.

But all they do is keep winning. Their 43-18 record in the second half is the best in baseball, and mind-boggling considering the number of injuries they'd have to deal with. We've seen plenty of clubs - Detroit and Boston (whom I hate) spring to mind - crumble under the weight of players lost to the DL, but not the Twins.

Justin Morneau, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey have all missed significant time with injuries. Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, J.J. Hardy, Orlando Hudson and Nick Punto have all spent time on the shelf as well. That's a lot of pitching and hitting to lose over the course of the year, and yet the Twins are right there for the best record in the the big leagues.

Maybe their skipper finally deserves some hardware? That's probably a subject better suited for a Friday column, eh?

AL West:

Current Standings: Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics -9, Los Angeles Angels -10.5, Seattle Mariners -26.5

Dan's Picks: Los Angeles, Seattle, Texas, Oakland

Kelley Formula Results: 8 of a possible 16 points

Analysis: Scored a lousy 50% in this division, and it's not likely to change much over the last couple of weeks. Sure the Angels could catch the A's for second place, and that would notch more a couple more points, but I'm not holding my breath.

After watching Oakland take two of three in Minnesota this weekend, I was reminded of what makes the A's such a pain in the... well you know. Their pitching staff is solid. They can't score runs in bunches, but boy can they pitch. And it's not just the starters - though they have a solid young core of them - their bullpen is pretty good as well.

The Rangers started selling Division Series tickets last week, and as well they should. They've only had this division sown up for a month or so.

I haven't thought a ton about what my picks for 2011 will be, with one exception. Though I reserve the right to allow some off-season moves to change my mind, the Seattle Mariners will be my pick for last place in the AL West in 2011. Just because a club has a dreadful year doesn't mean the following season has to be bad, but the Mariners have so many problems that it seems near to impossible they'll be competitive again any time soon.

NL East:

Current Standings: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves -3, New York Mets -15, Florida Marlins -15, Washington Nationals -26.5

Dan's Picks: Philadelphia, Florida, Atlanta, New York, Washington

Kelley Formula Results: 17 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: Well it's about time Philly!

Not only has my World Series pick finally seen fit to take over first place from the Braves, they've begun putting some distance between themselves and Atlanta as well.

The trade deadline acquisition of Roy Oswalt seemed a little shaky at first, but he's since settled in, and the Phills now have the best 1-2-3 combination of any of the potential playoff teams. That doesn't guarantee they'll win anything in the post-season, but when you have to face the likes of Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt in the first round... well let's just say I don't envy their division series opponent.

The Braves, in the mean time, have to be careful not to let their slide out of first place turn into a slide out of the playoffs. The Padres are now closer to the Braves for the Wild Card than the Braves are to the Phillies for the NL East pennant. The Bravos have been surprising me all year with their ability to stay in this race. I'm still not entirely sure how they're doing it. But now that they're there, it'd be a shame to see them stumble and miss the post-season in Bobby Cox's final go-round.

The Marlins have been a big disappointment for me. I went out on something of a limb to predict they'd be the Wild Card for the NL, but no such luck. I knew I was in trouble when they fired their manager even though most baseball pundits thought it was undeserved. Some organizations just have trouble getting out of their own way, and the group running things in Miami now isn't the same one that led them to two World Championships. Don't be fooled by those titles. The Marlins aren't threatening to add a third one any time soon.

The Mets continue to be bad, but I'm not sure they'll be bad enough to sink back to a comfortable fourth for me. I take some solace in knowing that I correctly labeled them as non-contenders when many wanted to see them as “in the mix”. Now if they'd just relax down the stretch and let Florida step out front a few games ahead of them, I'd be much obliged.

Washington's an enigma. There's a lot to like about the club's future, I'm just not sure when that “future” will be arriving. Strasburg will be back from his Tommy John surgery... sometime. Bryce Harper will be in the big leauges... someday. All the while Ryan Zimmerman has to be wondering when the heck he's going to get a little help around there. I'm not sure I can pick the Nats to finish out of the cellar next year, but I really think this club has a shot to get markedly better in the next two or three years.

NL Central:

Current Standings: Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals -6, Houston Astros -11.5, Milwaukee Brewers -14, Chicago Cubs -15.5, Pittsburgh Pirates -32.5

Dan's Picks: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh

Kelley Formula Results: 14 of a possible 24 points

Analysis: This division is perhaps my biggest disappointment as a whole. How the Cardinals fell out of this race, I don't understand.

Pitching? Check. Clutch offense? Check. Decent defense? Check. How is it they're losing all these games? Maybe my resident Cardinal-fan reader, Jeff in Des Moines, has a clue. Because I sure don't.

Meanwhile, not only has Cincinnati extended their lead in the division, but 1B Joe Votto is making a serious case for NL MVP. There are several worthy candidates, and the balloting is going to be very interesting, but given his ridiculous 1.012 OPS and his crazy-high .422 OBP, he's got to be the favorite. I can guarantee you one thing, anyway. He'll finish just a bit better than 22nd in the balloting, which is where he finished in 2009.

Don't be fooled by the Astros sitting in third place. All due respect to their second-half surge, they've never been in this race. They can try and sell fans on the idea that they'll be better next year based on what they've done in the second half. The only problem with that pitch is it's the same one they made in 2009 when they did well in the second half after sucking the bag in the first. The middle of this division (Milwaukee and Chicago) came back to the Astros more than the Astros jumped up and got them.

NL West:

Current Standings: San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres -0.5, Colorado Rockies -1.5, Los Angeles Dodgers -11, Arizona Diamondbacks -25

Dan's Picks: Colorado, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego

Kelley Formula Results: 10 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: This division is the only real “race” left in baseball, and there's still time for it to sort itself out to my advantage.

Much as I've been befuddled by the high quality of play from Atlanta and Cincinnati, the Padres have mystified me in 2010. I know their pitching has been unexpectedly dominant, but that doesn't seem like quite enough to explain their presence in this race.

The Giants, meanwhile, have had every opportunity to put a strangle-hold on this division, yet lead by only half a game. They're good, and if they get into the post-season, not many teams will want to face Lincecum and Cain in the first two games of a division series, but they're not there yet.

Colorado, meanwhile, has finally gotten into the thick of this race... hopefully not too late. 7-3 in their last 10 has gotten them close, but while 1.5 games may not seem like an overly large deficit, when you've got to pass two clubs to make it happen, it gets a lot larger.

The Dodgers have officially checked out for this season. When you start announcing that your current manager is going to “retire” (though he wouldn't rule out managing another team down the line) and you're already announcing his replacement... well, that's pretty much a white flag move. Not that they had any hope of getting back into things, but they at least could've tried to play something of a spoiler role here.

The Diamondbacks... well, they're the Diamondbacks. Just when they start to put a little something together, they go on yet another losing streak and give it all back. I'll say this at least, of all the last-place clubs in MLB, they've got the best chance to jump back up and be competitive next season. I sure won't be predicting it to happen, but still...

Total:

Combined Kelley Formula Results: 83 of a possible 120 points (69.2%)

2009 Kelley Formula Results: 87 of a possible 120 points (72.5%)

Analysis: A grand total of one-point improvement since last we checked.

Given that it puts us only four points behind last year's pace, I'd say that single point isn't insignificant. But it is interesting how things can change so much, and yet so little over the course of 6 weeks or so.

There's something of an equilibrium to baseball. I can only hope that a few more things settle my way I guess!

That'll wrap things up for today. Like I said, we'll take one more Peek coming up in a couple of weeks when the regular season ends. Until then, come on Florida, Kansas City and Colorado! Help a guy out!!!

I'm back on Wednesday with the usual college football goodness.

Until then, thanks for reading!