4.21/4.34... 4.79/4.38... 5.40/4.06...
3.91/4.14...
Those are the ERA's and xFIP's
(Expected Fielder Independent Pitching – which attempts to isolate
pitcher performance from defensive variance) for Twins starter Kevin
Correia over the previous four years of his career. Two of those
seasons having been spent with the Pirates, two with the Padres.
So when the Twins signed him to a
two-year, ten-million dollar deal this past off-season, it left many
baseball fans scratching their head.
In a market full of mediocre starters,
why would Twins GM Terry Ryan sign a right-hander - who in no obvious
way stood out from the crowd - to a two-year contract when most of
the comparable starters were being inked to one-year deals?
While it's too early in the season to
declare complete vindication for Ryan, Correia's efforts so far seem
to bolster the case that Terry knew exactly what he was doing with
the signing.
Coming into Sunday's start against the
Rangers, Correia had an ERA of 2.86 in 28.1 innings pitched. And
while his xFIP of 4.06 and baBIP of .283 would seem to indicate that
he's been the beneficiary of more than his fair share of luck, you
really can't argue with his results.
Even he's cautious to read too much
into his early success, “I'm getting balls hit to people right now,
and very easily when you go out there and get balls put in play a lot
like I do sometimes those things can find a hole and it can seem
really hard to get people out. Right now it's just going my way.”
Conventional wisdom says that pitchers
moving from the National to the American League tend to struggle,
seeing their strikeout rate drop, on average, by a half-point and
their ERA's rise around a half-run. Over the course of 30+ starts
those number can and do have a significant impact.
So far, Correia's enjoying the
transition to the American League style of baseball, “I think if I
was in the National League I would probably have maybe 5 less innings
than I do right now. Pitching in close games you're going to get
pinch hit for and being able to go out there a little longer, it's
fun. It's nice to be able to go deeper into games.”
So why is Correia having success where
so many others haven't? Again, one has to stress the importance of
the small sample size involved. And the truth is, his numbers don't
provide an obvious answer.
His ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio is
almost a full half-point lower than his rate last season. But even
though he's getting fewer ground-outs, his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio
is only half has high as last season, so far fewer of the fly balls
that he's surrendering are making their way out of the park.
His strike out rate is right in line
with past seasons, though his walk-rate is lower. Fewer free passes
means fewer opportunities for cheap runs.
Sunday's result was Correia's best yet.
He went 8 full innings, scattering 6 hits without giving up a run to
a very potent Texas Rangers lineup and dropping his ERA to 2.23 on
the season.
Manager Ron Gardenhire said, “He was
unbelievable. His success is about throwing it over and working
ahead in the count and I think we saw him do that pretty much all
day.”
Expectations have to be managed,
however. Correia is the first Twins player to start his career with
five straight quality starts since Ramon Ortiz in 2007. Ortiz ended
up appearing in only 28 games that season with a 5.14 ERA before
being traded to Colorado.
So while statistical analysis would
seem to indicate that Correia's due to regress to his career mean at
some point, so far in 2013 he's more than justifying the faith Terry
Ryan and the Twins showed in him this past off-season.
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