5-26-10: 2010 Peek at the Picks, Vol. 1

Hello again everybody...

Happy Wednesday to you all. Hope your week's going well so far.

Me? No complaints. Though I might have one were I to have had tickets to last night's Twins game. The Twins and the Yankees were scoreless in the fifth when the skies over Target Field opened up. After the umpires delayed the game for an hour or so, they decided to suspend the game until this afternoon.

So why would I have been annoyed by that? Because the rules are that ticket holders from last night saw all the baseball they're going to see. The Twins are going to open up the gates at 3pm today to holders of tickets for tonight's 6:10pm game, so they can see the conclusion of Game 1 and then the entire Game 2.

I suppose logistically, that's the easiest move, but if I was holding a ticket for last night's game, I'd feel a bit cheated. Especially considering that the rain had stopped by 10pm, and they probably could've kept playing.

But you can't blame the Twins. Once the game starts, the decision to suspend is purely with the umpiring crew. So maybe they had reservations at Murray's, or something, I don't know.

And while I loathe conspiracy theories, I will point out that Phil Cuzzi was part of the crew. Yes, the same Phil Cuzzi who horrifically blew a call in last years Twins/Yankees playoff series which cost Joe Mauer a key double.

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin...

Ultimately, it's a boon for those lucky folks who have tickets for tonight's game. Free baseball, folks! You can't beat it!

With the Memorial Day weekend looming, it's time to take a look back at my pre-season picks. Memorial Day is the traditional quarter-pole of the season, so it's time to take a look at how I'm doing so far!

Right after the quote...

”The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at or repair.”
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001), English writer, dramatist, and musician

*cough* ...BP oil spill... *cough*

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It's time for the first 2010 edition of...

Peek at the Picks

Long time readers are familiar with this concept, but for those of you who are new to Writing For the Cycle, allow me to explain...

Each baseball season, I pick the final standings for each of the six divisions. Periodically throughout the year, I compare the current MLB standings to my picks. I've even sought the help of one of my mathematically-inclined friends to create the Kelley Formula to measure how well I'm doing.

So let's break down the divisions and see how I'm doing, shall we?!

AL East:

Current Standings: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees -5, Toronto Blue Jays -6, Boston Red Sox (whom I hate) -6.5, Baltimore Orioles -17

Dan's Picks: New York, Boston (whom I hate), Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Toronto

Kelley Formula Results: 12 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: I pooh-poohed the pundits who said that Tampa was going to be really good this season. Fortunately, I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong. Now, I don't know that Tampa's going to be able to keep up this pace all season, but so far, they're doing laps around the rest of the division. My bad, Rays fans! I don't know why, but every year I think Baltimore's finally going to turn a corner. And now they're 17 games out a quarter of the way into the season. Oof.

AL Central:

Current Standings: Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers -1.5, Chicago White Sox -7.5, Kansas City Royals -9, Cleveland Indians -9

Dan's Picks: Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland

Kelley Formula Results: 18 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: Much better results here in the Central. It's too early to declare it a two-team race, but unless things improve quickly for Chicago, that's exactly what it's going to be. I still think Minnesota is by far the class of this division. Detroit's hanging with them, but sooner or later their line-up is going to let their pitching staff down. Hopefully the Twins can take advantage when it does!

AL West:

Current Standings: Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics -3, Los Angeles Angels -5, Seattle Mariners -8.5

Dan's Picks: Los Angeles, Seattle, Texas, Oakland

Kelley Formula Results: 8 of a possible 16 points

Analysis: Right back in the crapper on this one. I nailed the AL West last season, so it's disappointing to be doing so poorly this season. Fortunately, the division is far from decided. Texas still has to go through it's usual summer wilting. Oakland isn't going to keep this up. Los Angeles has to kick it into gear sooner or later. And Seattle? Well they still have Milton Bradley, which tells you about all you need to know.

NL East:

Current Standings: Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins -3, Atlanta Braves -3.5, Washington Nationals -4, New York Mets -4

Dan's Picks: Philadelphia, Florida, Atlanta, New York, Washington

Kelley Formula Results: 18 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: Things are looking good for me in the NL East. The Nats have been surprisingly competitive, and they still haven't called up Stephen Strasburg yet. It'll be interesting to see how much of a boost he gives them. The Mets had a good week or two there, but I still don't think they have the pitching to really contend. The Phillies? Maybe they're not as dominant as I thought they were going to be, but they're plenty good enough to win this division.

NL Central:

Current Standings: St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds (tie), Chicago Cubs -4, Pittsburgh Pirates -6, Milwaukee Brewers -7.5, Houston Astros -10.5

Dan's Picks: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh

Kelley Formula Results:15 of a possible 24 points

Analysis: So I guess I'm going to do okay on an “every-other” division basis? I should probably finish my work on the NL West before I say that. The Cardinals are the Cardinals, no surprises there. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has been a huge surprise. And they still have Cuban fire-baller Aroldis Chapman sitting in the minors. I thought Dusty Baker was going to be on the managerial hot seat. Instead, he's in the running for Manager of the Year. You've got to love baseball! The biggest disappointment here? Has to be the Brewers. As I told a Brewer fan friend of mine, their pitching sucks and their manager inserts himself far too much into games. Until those things change, Milwaukee's not going to be in the running.

NL West:

Current Standings: San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers -2, San Francisco Giants -3.5, Colorado Rockies -4, Arizona Diamondbacks -7.5

Dan's Picks: Colorado, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego

Kelley Formula Results: 12 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: Yep, I spoke too soon. What in the name of Friar Tuck is going on in San Diego? To put it simply, their pitching has been outstanding, especially their starters. Jon Garland has an ERA under 3. Where was that a year ago when he was pitching in Arizona?! I guess starting for Bud Black, a former pitching coach, has had a positive effect. I still don't know how this team is going to consistently score runs over the long haul, but I can't argue with what they've done so far. I'm really disappointed that Colorado hasn't been better. As red-hot as they were at the end of 2009, I figured they'd keep it rolling in 2010. Despite Ubaldo Jimenez's bid for a Cy Young, their pitching has let them down. Four games isn't too big a deficit to recover from, so I'm not giving up yet!


Combined Kelley Formula Results: 83 of a possible 120 points (69.2%)

2009 Kelley Formula Results: 87 of a possible 120 points (72.5%)

Analysis: So I'm starting off a bit rough this year. But if the Western divisions will straighten out a bit, I'll be right back in the hunt to improve on my total from last season. So far I've only got three of the six division winners right. I expect that'll change. I hope that'll change. Please change?!

That's going to wrap things up for today. I'm back on Friday with the usual DFTU fluffery.

Until then, thanks for reading!

1 comment:

  1. I don't think anyone in the world would have blamed you for betting against San Diego. Or at least going by their recent history. Heck their history in general.