6-17-09: 2009 Peek at the Picks, Vol. 2

Hello again everybody...

Happy Hump-Day to you all. And I mean that in the cleanest way possible. When I got into work today, I found out we had a little woopsie on the air earlier today. Apparently, you have to be really careful when you start extrapolating verbs from the term "Twitter". I won't go any further than that, but suffice it to say, keep your vowels to "i's" or "e's" when you're using that word.

It's been two weeks since the first edition of the 2009 Peek at the Picks, so I figure it's high time to revisit things. Has my percentage via the Sports Take Kelley Formula improved? Am I at least on the right track? Are Detroit and Houston still screwing me?

Let's find out!

"Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead."
- Benjamin Franklin (1706 - 1790), author and printer, satirist, political theorist, politician, scientist, inventor, civic activist, statesman, and diplomat.

Regular readers know that I'm a big fan of Ben. This quote leaped out at me after yesterday's news that Sammy Sosa was, in addition to A-Roid, on the list of 104 baseball players who flunked the now infamous 2003 drug tests.

I'm not going to make this a column-long rant about steroids and other PED's. Let me just say this: for the love of all that's holy, release the entire freaking list already. Dropping one name here or there doesn't accomplish anything. Give us all of the names. Let us have our couple weeks of ear-splitting outrage. And then let us move on. But this version of Chinese water torture has to stop.

Rant fin.

«Read More...»

Time for Volume 2 of the 2009 Peek at the Picks. For those of you who missed the first edition a couple of weeks ago here's the link which explains the Sports Take Kelley Formula.

So let's get to the formulating!

AL East:

Dan's Picks: Boston (whom I hate), Tampa, New York, Baltimore, Toronto

Current Standings: Boston (whom I hate), New York (-2), Tampa (-5), Toronto (-5), Baltimore (-12)

Kelley Formula Results: 15 of a possible 20 points.

Analysis: Picked up a couple of points here with a small resurgence from Tampa. Toronto's headed south, and I'm still thinking that they may move Roy Halladay before the deadline. That could make things very interesting. And how strange is it that Boston (whom I hate) is 8-0 versus the Yankees, yet the Yankees are only 2 games back. That bodes fairly well for the Bombers. It pains me to pimp the Yanks like that, but yes, I hate Boston that much.

AL Central:

Dan's Picks: Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Detroit

Current Standings: Detroit, Minnesota (-2), Chicago (-4), Kansas City (-4.5), Cleveland (-6.5)

Kelley Formula Results: 10 of a possible 20 points.

Analysis: No change from Vol. 1. Detroit's hanging in there. But they've had a rash of injuries to the back end of their starting rotation, so the time is ripe for Minnesota to surge and take control of the division. And fortunately for Twins fans, it's inter-league time, where Minnesota traditionally dominates. Chicago can't figure out if they're in it or not, so while Kansas City has slumped, there's still a good shot for them to finish 3rd. Cleveland keeps saying, "as soon as we get healthy, we'll be in the race". I've got a news flash for Tribe fans: no you won't.

AL West:

Dan's Picks:
LAAAGOCRCUSPE, Texas, Seattle, Oakland

Current Standings: Texas, LAAAGOCRCUSPE (-2), Seattle (-5.5), Oakland (-9)

Kelley Formula Results: 14 of a possible 16 points

Analysis: Also no change from Volume 1. Texas lost Josh Hamilton to injury, and Vicente Padilla is just a tweak or two away from going full-on "Milton Bradley Crazy". So they're vulnerable. But LAAAGOCRCUSPE can't seem to generate much in the way of momentum. Seattle is what Seattle is. And Oakland sucks. Just like I told you they would. As certain readers point out, I'm not right as often as I'd like, so I'm going to highlight when I am!

NL East:

Dan's Picks: Phliadelphia, New York, Atlanta, Florida, Washington

Current Standings: Philadelphia, New York (-3), Florida (-6), Atlanta (-6.5), Washington (-20)

Kelley Formula Results: 18 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: Lost a couple of points here when the Marlins creeped ahead of the Braves. Actually, I think it was more about the Braves slumping, than the Marlins surging. Apparently acquiring Nate McClouth from the Pirates wasn't the boon the Braves were hoping for. And no, that's not a typo. Washington actually is 20 games out already. There's been rumblings for a week that they're going to fire manager Manny Acta, but they've yet to pull the trigger. That's right. Things are so bad in our Nation's Capital that they can't even fire their manager correctly! The Met's are in trouble. Injuries happen to everybody, but some teams are better positioned to deal with them. It won't surprise me a bit if Philly runs away and hides sooner or later.

NL Central:

Dan's Picks: Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

Current Standings: Milwaukee, St. Louis (-1), Cincinnati (-3), Chicago (-3.5), Pittsburgh (-5.5), Houston (-5.5)

Kelley Formula Results: 11 of a possible 24 points.

Analysis: This division is going to kill me for the rest of the year. The Cubs aren't out of it, but they aren't showing a whole lot of life either. I was as happy as anyone to see the Twins take it to them over the weekend. But it's not a good sign for the Cubs when an opposing player gets "M-V-P" chants in their ballpark. Milwaukee is still clinging to first. With that starting rotation, I have no idea how, but they're doing it. Cincinnati's hanging around within striking distance. There's a lot of young talent on that team. I don't know how long they can hang in there, but the longer they do, the more dangerous they become. Houston's where I really blew it, as several people pointed out after I made the pick. They were right, I was wrong. Moving on...

NL West:

Dan's Picks: L.A. Dodgers, Arizona, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego

Current Standings: L.A., San Francisco (-8.5), Colorado (-11.5), San Diego (-14), Arizona (-16)

Kelley Formula Results: 14 of a possible 20 points

Analysis: It's bad enough when one team kills a division for you. It's worse when that team is one of your favorites. It's looking more and more like the ceiling for the D'backs this year is third place. I'm not saying they'll get there. But I'm fairly certain they won't finish any higher than that. Don't look now, but it's less than a month til Manny returns to L.A. And presuming he doesn't blow up the clubhouse chemistry (my guess: he won't), L.A. may be up by 15 games come trade deadline time.


Combined Kelley Formula Results: 82 of a possible 120 points (68.3%)

Last Week's CKFR: 81 of a possible 120 points (67.5%)

Last Year's CKFR: 86 of a possible 120 points (71.7%)

Analysis: That's right, I gained a whole point over the last two weeks. I was hoping to be ahead of last-year's pace by now, but there's still hope. I'm now up to three correct division leaders, and if Minnesota gets on a roll, that'll be four sooner than later.

The two Central divisions are still killing me, but the Eastern divisions are making up for that. That leaves the Western divisions to sort out how I end up. The NL West may be a lost cause. But I still have a lot of hope for LAAAGOCRCUSPE in the AL.

So there you have it. The second volume of the 2009 Peek at the Picks. The important thing to remember is the needle moved in the right direction. Even if that movement was as minimal as it gets.

That's all for today. Check back on Friday for your weekly dose of DFTU-age. The Twins are feasting on some Pirates pitching. Let's see where they stand come Friday!

Until then, thanks for reading!

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