Thursday

Kentucky Derby Notes: Big Brown's Bad Draw, My Pick & Exotic Bets




Hello again everybody...

One last Derby column before the big race on Saturday! I'll go over the post draws from yesterday, who I'm picking to win the race and what my trifecta bet's going to look like.


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And we're off...

Here are the posts and Morning Line odds for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby:

1. Cool Coal Man, 20-1
2. Tale of Ekati, 15-1
3. Anak Nakal, 30-1
4. Court Vision, 20-1
5. Eight Belles, 20-1
6. Z Fortune, 15-1
7. Big Truck, 50-1
8. Visionaire, 20-1
9. Pyro, 6-1
10. Colonel John, 4-1
11. Z Humor, 30-1
12. Smooth Air, 20-1
13. Bob Black Jack, 20-1
14. Monba, 15-1
15. Adriano, 30-1
16. Denis of Cork, 20-1
17. Cowboy Cal, 20-1
18. Recapturetheglory, 20-1
19. Gayego, 15-1
20. Big Brown, 3-1

As you can see, Big Brown got saddled with the furthest post from the rail, which is NOT where I thought he needed to be to win the race. After a random draw, Big Brown had the 16th pick of starting spot. When his turn came Posts 1, 2, 18, 19 and 20 were still open. So there were still spots open to the inside, but Big Browns Owner and Trainer decided that 20 was the way to go.

My initial reaction was that a lightly-raced horse starting from the 20-spot couldn't possibly win this race. So I went back to the form and started studying and studying and tried to find a horse that could beat him. But the more I looked, the more I realized I couldn't find anybody.

I'm convinced that Big Brown is the best horse in this race and barring some sort of fluke, he's going to win. Being that this is a weaker field of 3-year-olds, I'm less sure of this pick than I was of Street Sense and Barbaro the last couple of years. But that being said, my win wager is going to be on Big Brown. And if there is an upside to his being in the 20-spot, it'll be that enough people will put their money elsewhere, that Big Brown supporters should get a solid price.

Lastly, here's what I'm thinking for my exotic ticket. I'll do a straight trifecta with Big Brown on top, Colonel John, Gayego, and Z Fortune in the middle, and Colonel John, Gayego, Z Fortune, Eight Belles and Visionaire on the bottom. For a $2 Trifecta wager, that'll cost you $24. And if you hit it right, you're looking at anywhere from $200-400.


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