5-14-13: Aaron Hicks Had Himself A Night

[Ed.'s Note: This column was originally posted on the Twins Blog at WCCO.com which can be found here.]

To say that Aaron Hicks' first month-plus in the big leagues has been a trial is more than a tepid understatement.

Coming into Monday night the rookie had a slash-line of .137/.239/.216. As bad as those numbers look, considering that they were numbers on the rise, they look even worse.

He'd struck out 35 times in 102 at-bats, and had only 14 hits – though five of those were for extra bases. He'd managed to up his on-base percentage by virtue of drawing 14 walks, but was still struggling mightily to put the ball in play.

But for as long of a haul as a baseball season can be, it's funny how often one night can change the course of a player's season.

Hicks may very well have had one of those nights on Monday.

It started out innocently enough with a routine fly ball out to right in the second inning.

But after the Twins had grabbed the lead from the White Sox in the third, Hicks came to the plate to lead off the fourth. He worked himself into a 1-2 count, and then hammered a Hector Santiago pitch to center for only the second home run of his young career.

It's impressive enough to hit a ball 416 feet into a spot at Target Field where Twins fly balls usually go to die. It turned out to be all the more impressive given what happened in the sixth inning.

The White Sox had just closed to within two runs of the Twins when Adam Dunn – he of 412 career home runs – hit one to nearly the same spot that Hicks had hit his home run.

The difference? Aaron Hicks got a better jump than Alejandro De Aza – the Chicago center fielder – did. Hicks raced to the wall and made a leaping grab reminiscent of the kind of catch that earned Torii Hunter the nickname of “Spiderman”.

“When a ball's struck like that, you don't kind of know, you just have to break back and do the best you can,” Hicks said, “It hung up for me and I made the catch.”

A home run and the highway-robbery of a long-ball would be enough to earn the hearty cheers of any fan base, and Twins fans greeted Hicks loudly as he returned to the dugout.

But he wasn't done.

After Oswaldo Arcia struck out to lead off the bottom half of the sixth, Hicks took Santiago deep again, this time 412 feet to left-center. The two no-doubters not only constituted the first multi-hit and multi-homer game of Hicks' career, but also the first multi-home-run game by any Twin in 2013.

“I think the second one was more fun,” said Hicks, “Right after the catch I just felt amazing, I felt loose, and for that one to come right after, just capped it off.”

This time the cheers from the Twins faithful were so loud and sustained, they prompted another first for the first-year center fielder... his first curtain call.

Hicks had one more at-bat in the 8^th. This time after a bloop-double by Arcia and with first base open, Chicago reliever Deunte Heath decided that discretion was the better part of valor and issued Aaron a 5-pitch walk.

As the old Metrodome scoreboard saying goes, “Walks Will Haunt”, and haunt Heath they did as Hicks came around to score on a bases-loaded walk.

Of course, one game does not a career make. Heck, it doesn't even make a season.

Manager Ron Gardenhire just hopes a night like tonight helps build Hicks confidence, “That's kind of what we're all waiting for. You know, you get a couple of big hits like that, you have a moment out there and hopefully that can maybe get him past some of these things.”

If Hicks begins to establish himself as a legit starter in the Major Leagues, he'll be able to point to May 13^th as the night were things started to click.

In his words, “I've just been battling, you know, every day and that's the thing you gotta do in this league. I just made some plays today and had fun.”  

4-28-13: WCCO.com Twins Blog - Kevin Correia

[Ed.'s Note: This column was written for the Twins Blog at WCCO.com, and can be read here: http://cbsloc.al/17rzjXU ]

4.21/4.34... 4.79/4.38... 5.40/4.06... 3.91/4.14...

Those are the ERA's and xFIP's (Expected Fielder Independent Pitching – which attempts to isolate pitcher performance from defensive variance) for Twins starter Kevin Correia over the previous four years of his career. Two of those seasons having been spent with the Pirates, two with the Padres.

So when the Twins signed him to a two-year, ten-million dollar deal this past off-season, it left many baseball fans scratching their head.

In a market full of mediocre starters, why would Twins GM Terry Ryan sign a right-hander - who in no obvious way stood out from the crowd - to a two-year contract when most of the comparable starters were being inked to one-year deals?

While it's too early in the season to declare complete vindication for Ryan, Correia's efforts so far seem to bolster the case that Terry knew exactly what he was doing with the signing.

Coming into Sunday's start against the Rangers, Correia had an ERA of 2.86 in 28.1 innings pitched. And while his xFIP of 4.06 and baBIP of .283 would seem to indicate that he's been the beneficiary of more than his fair share of luck, you really can't argue with his results.

Even he's cautious to read too much into his early success, “I'm getting balls hit to people right now, and very easily when you go out there and get balls put in play a lot like I do sometimes those things can find a hole and it can seem really hard to get people out. Right now it's just going my way.”

Conventional wisdom says that pitchers moving from the National to the American League tend to struggle, seeing their strikeout rate drop, on average, by a half-point and their ERA's rise around a half-run. Over the course of 30+ starts those number can and do have a significant impact.

So far, Correia's enjoying the transition to the American League style of baseball, “I think if I was in the National League I would probably have maybe 5 less innings than I do right now. Pitching in close games you're going to get pinch hit for and being able to go out there a little longer, it's fun. It's nice to be able to go deeper into games.”

So why is Correia having success where so many others haven't? Again, one has to stress the importance of the small sample size involved. And the truth is, his numbers don't provide an obvious answer.

His ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio is almost a full half-point lower than his rate last season. But even though he's getting fewer ground-outs, his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is only half has high as last season, so far fewer of the fly balls that he's surrendering are making their way out of the park.

His strike out rate is right in line with past seasons, though his walk-rate is lower. Fewer free passes means fewer opportunities for cheap runs.

Sunday's result was Correia's best yet. He went 8 full innings, scattering 6 hits without giving up a run to a very potent Texas Rangers lineup and dropping his ERA to 2.23 on the season.

Manager Ron Gardenhire said, “He was unbelievable. His success is about throwing it over and working ahead in the count and I think we saw him do that pretty much all day.”

Expectations have to be managed, however. Correia is the first Twins player to start his career with five straight quality starts since Ramon Ortiz in 2007. Ortiz ended up appearing in only 28 games that season with a 5.14 ERA before being traded to Colorado.

So while statistical analysis would seem to indicate that Correia's due to regress to his career mean at some point, so far in 2013 he's more than justifying the faith Terry Ryan and the Twins showed in him this past off-season.

3-27-13 Twins Blog: Opening Day Starter Named

On Wednesday, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire confirmed what had long been suspected by Twins pundits, namely that off-season trade acquisition, Vance Worley, would get the start on Opening Day in Minnesota. Worley was part of the package of players the Twins received on December 6, 2012, in return for outfielder Ben Revere.

The 25-year-old California native will be his team’s Opening Day starter for the first time in his career. Last season – his first full year in the majors – he started the Phillies third game of the season (on the road) and their fifth game at Citizens Bank Park, their home field.

Worley’s the owner of a career 3.50 ERA, a 2.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has surrendered 23 home runs in his 272 and 2/3 Major League innings pitched. On the surface his 2012 numbers don’t inspire much confidence (a 4.20 ERA, a 95 ERA+, and a 1.511 WHIP), but dig a little deeper and there are extenuating circumstances.

Elbow inflammation landed the right-hander on the disabled list on May 16^th, 2012 and eventually ended his season in August so he could have bone chips surgically removed.

And if that’s not explanation enough, he had an moderately high BAbip of .351, meaning that an inordinate number of balls put into play turned into hits rather than outs.

That being said, there’s no guarantee Worley will return to his 2011 form (3.01 ERA, 1.230 WHIP & 119 K’s) when he finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. And while we should never put too much stock in Spring Training numbers, Worely’s haven’t been what you’d call “reassuring”.

The pitcher who will oppose him for Monday’s opener? Just a gentleman who owns a Rookie of the Year award, a Cy Young award (he’s been in the top 5 in voting 3 times) and a MVP award… one Justin Verlander of the Tigers.

But the beauty of baseball is that unanticipated outcomes can and do occur. And when you throw in forecasted temps in the mid-30’s and winds from 15-20mph, who knows what fluky things will happen?

First pitch Monday afternoon is scheduled for 3:10pm. Bring your parkas and blankets and check out “the Vanimal” (@Vanimal_49 on Twitter) as the Twins begin the 2013 campaign.

7-14-12: The Curious Case of Francisco Liriano

[Ed.'s Note: This blog was written for, and also published at the "Twins Blog" on WCCO.com]

Francisco Liriano became a member of the Minnesota Twins organization on November 14, 2003, coming over from the San Francisco Giants in a trade for A.J. Pierzynski. He made his big league debut for the Twins on September 5^th, 2005 in a relief appearance against the Texas Rangers where he pitched one inning giving up a home run to Gary Matthews while striking out two in what would ultimately be a 7-0 loss for the Twins.

He's been an enigma ever since.

In 2006 - his first full year in the majors - he was nothing short of brilliant. He won 12 games posting a 2.16 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, a strikeout rate of 10.7 per 9 innings, and a 4.50 K/BB ratio. He finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting and was chosen for the first of what most of us figured would be many All Star appearances.

Yet he finished the season suffering from forearm discomfort and pain, which baseball followers have learned is usually the first sign of ligament damage in a pitcher's elbow. Sure enough, on November 6, 2006, nearly three years from the day of his acquisition, Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery which wiped out the entirety of his 2007 season.

2008 was an up-and-down year for Liriano... quite literally. He made his post-surgery debut in April and got rocked by the Royals, lasting only four-and-two-thirds innings. He lasted just two more starts, getting knocked out of his April 24^th start against Oakland after just two-thirds of an inning before being sent back to Triple-A Rochester to work on his mechanics.

He made 12 starts with the Red Wings and seemed to be back in 2006 form, posting a 3.28 ERA, a 1.127 WHIP, and striking out 8.6 batters per 9-innings. The Twins brought him back to the majors for an August 3^rd start against Cleveland. He got the win in that game, and in fact, cranked out four straight wins, and won six of his last seven decisions in 2008.

Frankie was back! Or was he?

In 2009 he spent the entire season with the Twins, but to say it was a rocky season would be an understatement. His walk rate shot up to 4.3 per nine innings, his home run rate skied to 1.4 per nine innings, and his WHIP rose to an ugly 1.551. All of which added up to a 5-13 record and a 5.80 ERA. A forgettable campaign to say the least.

That winter, Liriano returned to his native Dominican Republic to play in their winter league. It was thought that he needed more innings under his belt to get back to the kind of specific, repeatable mechanics it takes to succeed in the big leagues. Frankie was dominant in winter ball, helping propel his club to a league championship. Yet again, expectations were high for the lefty heading into the 2010 Twins season.

Once more, however, it was a season of streaks for Liriano. He started out hot, and through mid-May was one of the top pitchers in baseball. From that point through the All Star break, he stumbled mightily, dropping five of his seven decisions. After the break, he came back strong, regaining his form and his confidence and reeling off four straight wins, and wins in six of his next 10 starts. He didn't take a loss until September 19^th, but lost his last three starts to close out the season.

He was fifth in the AL in strikeouts, posted the lowest home run rate of his career, and even finished 11^th in the AL Cy Young balloting. It wasn't a perfect season, but once again, there were hopes that he had turned a corner and was prepared to become a front-line starter for the Twins.

A rough start to 2011 challenged those hopes however, and despite throwing his first career no-hitter against the White Sox on May 3^rd, 2011 became yet another sub-par season for Liriano. Once again, his walk rate was at 5 per nine innings, his WHIP was pushing the 1.5 mark and his strikeout rate dropped by nearly two per game. After experiencing some shoulder soreness in late August, Liriano was shut down and spent the rest of the 2011 season resting and rehabbing.

Which brings us to 2012. After another disastrous April and losing five of his first six starts, there was talk of sending Liriano to the minor leagues to work on his game. Due to his service time, however, Liriano had the option to decline such a move and did just so. Instead, he was shipped to the bullpen from whence he made five appearances over the course of May.

On May 30^th, the Twins were forced by injuries to bring him back to the starting rotation and were rewarded with six scoreless innings from Liriano in that first start. Since then, Liriano has posted a 2.83 ERA, kept his walk rate under four, has a strikeout rate over 10 and has his WHIP back down to 1.02.

In short, he's been fantastic. Both manager Ron Gardenhire and his fellow teammates cite an increase in confidence and ability to keep the ball down in the zone as the reasons for his improved performance.

Whatever it is, it has the Twins in an interesting position. Liriano is a free agent at the end of the 2012 season. If the Twins were to offer him a contract for 2013, it's speculated it would have to be at a minimum of $12 million to qualify for draft pick compensation. If Liriano were to be able to consistently pitch at his current level, that would be a more than reasonable price.

But that's a big “if”. Liriano's history has been a long string of hot-streaks followed by periods of utterly befuddling play. Can they afford to invest $12+ million in a guy who's shown no ability to sustain his level of play throughout an entire major league season? And would another team be willing to invest more?

That's why scouts were swarming Friday night to watch as Liriano struck out a career-high 15 batters, and still managed to take the loss - a rather appropriate microcosm of Frankie's career, don't you think? Those scouts had to like what they saw from Liriano, and given the reasonable amount of money he's owed, perhaps a team could be persuaded to part with a prospect-package that could help the Twins not only now, but going forward as well.

If the Twins hang on to Liriano for the rest of 2012, offer him a qualifying contract for 2013, and lose him to another team, they would be compensated with a draft pick. But whatever player they use that pick on, likely wouldn't be available to help the team for 3-5 years, if at all.

So if you're GM Terry Ryan, what do you do? Trade Liriano and hope the players you get in return are more stable in their performance? Hold on to Liriano and try to sign him to a short-term contract to minimize the club's risk and accept a compensatory pick if he doesn't agree to that deal? Or try to sign him to a longer-term contract and hope that this time, he really has turned the corner and figured things out?

Decisions like this one can have a significant impact on a club's long-term ability to compete, which will make the next two-and-a-half weeks until the July 31^st trading deadline interesting and important.